We're coming down the home stretch of the college football season. Rivalry games litter the schedule as teams fight for conference titles and bowl eligibility. Basically, it’s a great time to watch and bet on college football.
This week, my Triple Option picks are highlighted by my favorite fade of the season when Kentucky takes on Georgia. Penn State will continue its run of recent dominance in a matchup against Rutgers. And it’s all about style points for Tennessee at this point in the season.
Here are my best college football picks for Week 12:
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College football picks and predictions for Week 12
Kentucky Team Total Under 13.5 (-125)
If you're a regular reader of this column, you guys basically know at this point that I’m the president of the “Kentucky is Overrated" Fan Club. This means I am kicking myself for not taking Vanderbilt and the 17.5-points last week — a game that the Commodores ultimately won.
A few months from now, when you’re watching film on Will Levis to see if he’s worth a first-round pick, the game against Vandy was supposed to be the one where we saw all his best highlights. Instead, he might want to burn the tape. Levis went 11-23 for 109 yards and an interception.
And next on deck for Kentucky: Georgia.
Remember when people were wondering just how good this Bulldogs defense could be after losing a metric ton of talent to the NFL Draft? Well, the answer is still pretty damn good.
Georgia ranks ninth in opponent yards per play and second in scoring defense giving up just 11.6 points per game. That includes holding arguably the best offense in the country (Tennessee) to a meager 13 points a few weeks ago.
The Bulldogs' defense, led by Jalen Carter, sacked Hendon Hooker six times in that matchup and it will be licking its chops heading into this matchup against the Wildcats. That’s because the Big Blue offensive line is arguably one of the worst in the country. Kentucky ranks 129th in sack rate allowed and 104th in yards per rush attempt.
Kentucky’s offense gets in the most trouble when it gets down and is forced to throw, forcing the offensive line to pass block more. That’s exactly going to happen in this matchup against Georgia.
The Wildcats are averaging just 19.1 points per game in SEC play this season. I think they score fewer than two touchdowns in this matchup against the Bulldogs.
Penn State -19.5 (-110)
Penn State may be a season away from rejoining Ohio State and Michigan in the top tier of Big Ten teams. But for now, this is still a very strong Nittany Lions team with a balanced offense and a defense that's looking more and more terrifying each week.
Not shockingly, Penn State’s two losses came against the Buckeyes and Wolverines but have dominated basically every other opponent on its way to an 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS record. And the Nittany Lions will be a problem for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights this weekend.
Penn State has won two in a row and is coming off an impressive 30-0 shutout of Maryland. But this wasn’t surprising for those who follow the team, as PSU has been playing outstanding defense over the last month.
The Nittany Lions have given up an average of just 280.5 total yards per contest over their last four games. They held Maryland and Indiana to under 200 total yards in each of their last two games. And they even outgained Ohio State in their meeting at the end of October.
Heading into this game, PSU ranks 17th in opponent yards per play and 31st in sack rate, and now it takes on a Rutgers offense that is one of the worst in the country, ranking 120th in total offense and 114th in scoring offense, putting up just 19.9 points per game.
On the other side, Rutgers’ defense has been solid most of the year but is starting to show cracks. The Knights have surrendered 244 rushing yards per game in three consecutive losses to Michigan State, Michigan, and Minnesota.
That could mean another big day for running back Nick Singleton. The star freshman has rumbled for 805 yards at over six yards per carry and 10 scores.
With veteran quarterback Sean Clifford under center and improved offensive line play, Penn State will wear down the Rutgers defense over the course of the game, while the PSU defense will limit the Knights’ scoring chances on their way to covering this spread.
Tennessee Team Total Over 44.5 (-115)
Do you think Tennessee was pissed after its loss to Georgia? All the Volunteers did following their first defeat of the season was put a beatdown on Missouri like they caught the Tigers with their hands in the cookie jar.
The Vols smashed Mizzou 66-24 last week. That’s 66 points on what had been a solid Tigers’ defense to that point. And that’s exactly what Tennessee wants down the stretch. Crush everything in its path in hopes of impressing the College Football Playoff committee.
Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker continues to impress and is among the Heisman Trophy odds favorites, throwing for 2,888 yards while completing 71.1% of his passes with 24 touchdowns compared to just two picks. He’s also added another 405 yards and five scores on the ground.
Thanks to Hooker, Tennessee has put up at least 38 points in all but one SEC matchup (‘sup Georgia). Take away the Georgia matchup and the Vols are averaging 48 points per game in SEC play.
Next up in the Vols' path of destruction is South Carolina.
South Carolina may be 3-4 in SEC play, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Gamecocks have looked like they have regressed a bit in Shane Beamer’s second season. Recently, the team has had a couple of very ugly losses sandwiching a win over Vanderbilt. And the defense may be in over its head.
South Carolina ranks 77th in the country in opponent yards per play and 107th in opponent yards per carry. And those numbers could actually be worse. The Gamecocks have had pretty much as easy a schedule as an SEC team could have. And in their matchups against solid to great opponents (Arkansas, Georgia, and Florida) the Gamecocks have surrendered 43.3 points per game.
Style points is the name of the game at this point for Tennessee. The Vols will go Over their team total this week.
Week 12 odds overview
TCU (-2.5) at Baylor
The Horned Frogs proved they were for real with their big win over Texas last week. But somehow, laying less than a field goal against a Baylor team that just got stomped out by Kansas State last week, still feels a little disrespectful.
Iowa at Minnesota (O/U: 32.5)
Iowa totals feel like a game of limbo at this point. How low can they go? Pretty damn low, apparently. A total of 32.5 is pretty jarring even though this is a matchup of Top 10 total defenses and scoring defenses. But do we take an Over out of principle with a number this low?
Oregon (-2.5) vs Utah
I would jump all over Oregon at this number if I knew Bo Nix's status for this matchup. He injured his leg last game and his availability is up in the air. Keep an eye on Nix’s status leading up to kickoff. He's been a difference-maker for the Ducks this year and it has been a very long time since they have lost two in a row at home.
