Triple Option: Andrew Caley's College Football Picks and Predictions Week 13

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Just wanted to give thanks to you for following along this season despite my struggles with my college football bets. But hey, we’re coming off a winning week and we’ll try to roll that momentum over into Rivalry Week.

This week, we fade another quitter, highlight a team that needs to shine up its resume for the College Football Playoff committee, and even offer an extra helping in honor of Thanksgiving.

That and more as the Triple Option returns with my best college football picks and predictions for Week 13.

College football picks and predictions for Week 13

• Iowa Moneyline (+100)
• Navy -12.5 (-110)
• Memphis -6 (-110)
• Notre Dame -20 (-110)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

College football Week 13 picks

Iowa Moneyline (+100)

With it being Thanksgiving weekend, we’ve got an extra helping for you in this edition of the Triple Option as we look at a Friday night matchup in the Big Ten as the Iowa Hawkeyes visit the Nebraska Cornhuskers. And right off the bat, the fact that Iowa is an underdog against Nebraska feels a tad disrespectful to the Hawkeyes.

Yes, Nebraska is probably better than its 3-8 record indicates. And yes, Iowa’s offense is awful. But the Huskers should still not be favored against this 9-win Iowa team. 

For starters, Nebraska will be without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez. And even though Martinez has been bad for, well, a while, there hasn’t been anyone in the Huskers’ quarterback room who has been able to take the job from him.

Enter redshirt freshman Logan Smothers, which is an appropriate name considering Iowa’s defense makes the most experienced quarterbacks feel suffocated. 

It's a little scary to trust Iowa considering how awful the offense has been this season, but the Nebraska defense has been average at best and ranks 64th in opponent yards per rushing attempt, so the Cornhuskers can expect a healthy dose of Hawkeyes running back Tyler Godson.

I’m betting that Iowa defense forces a couple of turnovers against the inexperienced Huskers signal-caller to help secure the win.

Fade Nebraska.

Navy -12.5 (-110)

Our quitting team bet of the week has cashed two weeks in a row, and this week we're jumping back on the fade Temple train. 

We faded the Owls two weeks ago in their loss to Houston and not much has changed. Temple has now lost six games in a row, straight up and against the spread, getting outscored 261-45, and has scored 10 points or fewer in five of those six games.

Now, Navy obviously isn’t a great team at just 2-8, but it has been a solid bet at 6-4 ATS and has played fairly well over the last month with a couple of close losses. Additionally, a team that has quit will want nothing to do with a team that runs the triple option. Non-stop running plays all day is no fun to deal with, particularly when your care level is near zero.

Want more of a reason to fade Temple? The Owls run defense ranks 111th in the country when it comes to opponent yards per carry and now has to face a Navy offense that runs the ball the third-most in the nation to the tune of 230.3 yards per game. 

The Midshipmen should sail to a victory by at least two touchdowns. 

Memphis -6 (-110)

Memphis looks like a very solid bet at less than a touchdown this week when it hosts Tulane. While the Green Wave are coming off a big win over USF, the tides might turn on them this week.

The Tigers are an interesting team this season. They still need one more win to become bowl eligible after losing three of their last four games to drop them to 5-6 for the season. But four of those losses came by five points or less and they have an impressive win over Mississippi State.

But most importantly, Tulane doesn’t really match up well against Memphis. The Tigers love to pass the ball with quarterback Seth Henigan, who has thrown for 2,986 yards with 22 touchdowns compared to just eight interceptions. 

Look for Henigan to feed the ball to top target Calvin Austin III against a Tulane secondary that has been a complete dumpster fire this season. The Green Wave ranks 111th in opponent passing yards per play and 108th in opponent yards per attempt.

And even though the Memphis defense is not strong, it should do well enough against a Tulane offense that ranks 85th in the country in total yards per game.

While it certainly looks like Tulane hasn’t quit on the season after last week’s big win, that came at home. On the road, the Wave are winless and have lost by an average margin of 20.2 points per contest. Bet on Memphis to be motivated to secure that bowl berth and win this by a touchdown.

Notre Dame -20 (-110)

Admittedly, I have never been much of a Notre Dame believer over the years. But I'm certainly becoming one this season, particularly because I believe they are becoming overlooked and a little underrated.

The Irish were ranked No. 6 by the College Football Playoff committee in their latest rankings behind Michigan (I really want to hear that reasoning) despite each team’s best win being very similar, and Notre Dame has the better loss.

That aside, the Irish will still have a chance at the Playoff if things fall the right way. Notre Dame is at a disadvantage of not having a conference championship game to play in this season, which means the Irish will need some style points this week when they travel to Stanford to take on the Cardinal.

It may sound cliché, but it’s also true that Notre Dame has looked better each week, particularly its defense that has allowed a total of nine points over the last three games. And, simply put, Stanford is bad.

The Cardinal have lost six in a row straight up and against the spread and have lost the last three by a combined score of 107-32. That includes giving up 41 points to a mediocre-at-best Cal team. The Irish should be able to match that. 

Look for a big game from Kyren Williams who is going against a Stanford defense that ranks 125th in opponent yards per rush and 127th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Irish should rumble to a big victory here and do their best to impress the committee in their final regular-season game. 

Week 13 odds overview

Ohio State at Michigan (+8, 64.5): The Game is here and Ohio State nearly made my list of best bets this week. I think they have kicked it into overdrive and should win this game by 10. But that Michigan defensive line gives me pause. Oh, and your friendly reminder that Jim Harbaugh is 0-5 as the head coach of Michigan when facing Ohio State. 

Alabama at Auburn (+19.5, 56): Ah, the Iron Bowl. While Alabama has already clinched its spot in the SEC Championship, it's unlikely they get into the CFP with a loss to Auburn here. That said, asking them to cover 19.5 in a rivalry game might be a bit much considering they have looked a little shaky of late. On top of that, Auburn is 3-1 ATS in the last four Iron Bowls it has played at home.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-4, 49.5): Bedlam. This game means a lot. Not only to these teams but the Big 12. The conference likely needs OK State to win this game and then the Big 12 title game against Baylor or Oklahoma needs to win back-to-back games against the Pokes. Either way, getting more than a field goal with Oklahoma in this rivalry game is the way I'm leaning.

Odds current at time of publish. Check out our college football odds screen to see live odds and to shop for the best prices.

Week 13 Triple Option betting card

• Iowa Moneyline (+100)
• Navy -12.5 (-110)
• Memphis -6 (-110)
• Notre Dame -20 (-110)

Last week: 2-1 ATS, +0.82 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

Season: 12-18-1 ATS, -7.03 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

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