College Football Week 13 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: UCF Knights Put Bettors in the Black

There is nothing quite like rivalry week in college football. The classic matchups, the sometimes hilarious trophies, and the raucous student sections.

It also means the end of the regular season is here and it brings many angles into play when looking at the college football odds. Who still has a shot at their conference title, who is trying to become bowl-eligible, who needs style points to impress the College Football Playoff committee, and who is just ticking down the clock on their season?

Southern Methodist falls into the needs a win category in order to qualify for its conference title game, and the Ponies' defense should put on a show. UCF needs a win against a Houston team with nothing to play for to qualify for a bowl. And Alabama not only needs to win the Iron Bowl, but must pad their resume by dominating rival Auburn.

I bring you my best college football picks and predictions in the Triple Option for the final time in the 2023 regular season.

College football Week 13 picks

• UCF -13.5 (-110)
• Navy team total Under 13.5 (-115)
• Alabama -6.5 1H (-125)

Picks made on November 24 at 9:30 a.m. ET. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 13 odds, picks, and predictions

Houston vs UCF prediction

This matchup between Houston and UCF is one of those perfect spot bets that only college football can create.

Let’s start with the Cougars, who are on quit watch. Houston put up a good effort for a while against Oklahoma State last week, but the Pokes pulled away in the second half and the loss dropped the Cougs to 4-7 for the season. This means they won’t be playing in a bowl game this season.

Meanwhile, UCF needs this win to go bowling. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has been back for the last five games and UCF has gone 2-3 straight up and 3-2 against the spread in those games, averaging 30.6 points over that stretch. That includes nearly upsetting Oklahoma and absolutely throttling Oklahoma State. And last week’s one-point loss to Texas Tech was the result of a failed extra point.

Plumlee has thrown for 1,248 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions while adding another 356 yards and three scored on the ground since his return. And the Knights, who rank sixth in yards per play and 26th in offensive success rate, shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball in this one. 

That’s because Houston’s defense has a problem. It’s not good. Both good teams and bad have pushed them around recently, and the Knights should be the latest team to out-physical them. The Cougars rank 92nd in opponent yards per play and an ugly 119th in defensive success rate. 

And while UCF’s defense isn’t great, Houston might not be equipped to take advantage. You want to attack the Knights on the ground, but the Cougars have a pass-happy offense that ranks 66th in yards per play and 72nd in success rate. UCF ranks 49th in opponent yards per attempt and 23rd in opponent completion percentage.

At the end of the day, the motivations of these two teams are vastly different. And the team with nothing to play for must travel on the road and play in the raucous Bounce House and try to tackle to team that wants to run all over them. UCF by at least two touchdowns.

PICK: UCF -13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Navy vs Southern Methodist prediction

It’s pretty simple for the Southern Methodist Mustangs. Beat the Navy Midshipmen this weekend and earn a spot in the AAC Championship game, keeping the hope of a New Year’s Six bowl game alive.

SMU enters this AAC matchup with a perfect 7-0 record in conference play, and its only two losses on the season came against Big 12 foes Oklahoma and TCU. The Mustangs have built that record thanks in part to a solid offense led by quarterback Preston Stone. But what really powers these Ponies is their defense.

This veteran unit is one of the most underrated in the entire country, and what makes this SMU defense is great is that it can do it all. They can stuff the run, defend the pass, and pressure the quarterback. The Mustangs rank seventh in the nation in opponent yards per play, and 15th in defensive success rate.

But since this is a game against Navy, let’s focus on the Ponies’ run defense. SMU is limiting opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry, which ranks 14th in the country, and they rank 20th in defensive success rate against the rush.

And you would think that because the Midshipmen almost exclusively run the football thanks to their version of the triple option offense they would be good at it. Spoiler alert. They’re not. Navy is averaging just 4.3 yards per carry, which ranks 71st in the county, and they rank 116th in EPA/rush.

So, basically, Navy can’t pass and they are not efficient at running the football with almost no explosiveness. Not surprisingly, the Midshipmen are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the country, averaging just 18.7 points per game, and have scored 18 or fewer in four of their last five games. They will have real trouble putting up points against this Ponies D. Take the Under on the Midshipmen’s team total in this one.

PICK: Navy team total Under 13.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Alabama vs Auburn prediction

I’m old enough to remember when the Iron Bowl was one of college football’s greatest rivalries. But now we’re at a point where Alabama has left Auburn in its dust.

This wasn’t supposed to be one of Nick Saban’s better teams. But here we are, at another rivalry week, and the Crimson Tide are 10-1 and have yet another date in the SEC Championship Game.

Meanwhile, Auburn is a mess. Everyone knew Hugh Freeze wasn’t going to be able to turn around this program overnight. But I’m not sure anyone expected this. The Tigers had struggled in SEC play, going 3-4 and basically losing against every good opponent.

But the Tigers are coming off a program-low point. Auburn paid New Mexico State $1.8 million to come play them last week, only to have the Aggies hand them a 31-10 beatdown as 25.5-point underdogs. Oof. And now Alabama comes to town.

The Crimson Tide began the season with questions about who would be under center, but Jalen Milroe has erased those. Bama’s dual-threat QB looks to be getting better every time he takes the field. He has now thrown for 2,267 yards with 19 touchdowns to six interceptions. He’s also added 312 yards and 12 scores on the ground.

He leads a Tide offense that ranks 23rd in yards per play while putting up 36.5 points per game. Now they face an Auburn defense that, while not terrible, definitely has some flaws, particularly against the run. The Tigers rank 71st in defensive success rate vs. the run and 87th in opponent yards per carry. 

But it’s scoring that could be the real problem for Auburn in this one. The quarterback play has been bad, so the Tigers have relied on the run. But unfortunately for them, they are going against an elite Bama defense.

The Tide ranks ninth in defensive success rate, and 19th in opponent yards per play. That includes 11th in defensive success rate vs. the run while allowing just 3.6 yards per carry.

Auburn will struggle to generate much offense and Alabama will jump out to an early lead, covering the first-half spread.

PICK: Alabama -6.5 1H (-125 at DraftKings)

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