Touching Howard’s Rock at Clemson, Ralphie’s Run in Colorado, the White Out at Penn State, and the Best Damn Band in the Land at Ohio State. These are just some of the traditions that make college football so great.
But at Covers, we have our own college football tradition. Specifically, Andrew Caley’s Triple Option betting column, where he brings you his favorite NCAA football plays each and every week throughout the season en route to the College Football National Championship.
After a slow start to the season, Andrew turns his attention to a trio of teams who did the exact opposite in Week 1. Air Force is set to trample the Buffaloes. Brennan Armstrong and Virginia look like a great play getting points at Illinois. And Mike Leach's Air Raid offense will cool off Arizona in the desert.
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College football picks and predictions for Week 2
Air Force -17 (-110)
Air Force was one of my preseason darlings heading into this college football season. To win the Mountain West Conference. To go Over their win total of 8.5. All of it.
Both of those things got off to a solid start by taking care of business in a 48-17 win over FCS Northern Iowa, covering the 15-point chalk. The Falcons racked up an insane 691 total yards, which included 582 yards on the ground at a clip of 9.39 yards per carry. Even against an FCS opponent, that’s impressive.
In Week 2, Air Force will use its efficient yet still explosive rushing attack to take advantage of the visiting Colorado Buffaloes, who are coming off a disappointing loss in their opener.
It was the Buffs who were trampled last week, falling 38-13 to TCU as 13.5-point home underdogs.
And it’s not just that the Buffaloes lost that you can have faith in the Falcons, it’s how lost. The Horned Frogs rumbled for 275 yards on the ground, rushing for an incredible 9.19 yards per carry.
On top of that, Colorado’s offense also couldn’t get anything going against TCU. Starting quarterback Brandon Lewis threw for just 78 yards before getting pulled for backup JT Shrout, who wasn’t much better. Now, they’ll have to deal with an Air Force defense that ranked fourth nationally in total yards allowed per game and 25th in opponent yards per play.
Led by quarterback Haaziq Daniels, Air Force will lean on its run game to wear out the Colorado defense and pull away in the second half of this in-state rivalry, covering this spread in the process.
Virginia +4.5 (-110)
Despite not covering the 21.5-point spread, Virginia and new head coach Tony Elliott had to be pleased with their performance in last week’s 35-17 season-opening victory against Richmond.
Quarterback Brennan Armstrong looked comfortable during his first game in Elliott’s system, completing 21 of 33 passes for 246 yards and two scores, while adding another 105 yards and a score on the ground. But Armstrong wasn’t alone. Running back Perris Jones added 109 rushing yards and a touchdown while wide receiver Lavel Davis Jr. looked like a mismatch in the passing game.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers defense did its job holding Richmond to just 4.8 yards per play.
While it’s pretty much what we see is what we get with Virginia, this week’s opponent, Illinois, has sportsbooks a little more confounded to this point. Last week, it felt like the Fighting Illini were undervalued against Indiana, and this week, it’s the opposite, as Illinois might be getting a little too much respect.
Illinois opened the season with a solid win 38-6 win over Wyoming, covering a 14-point spread but followed that up by letting last week’s game against Indiana slip through its fingers.
The biggest takeaway from that loss to the Hoosiers is that the Illini let OK-at-best quarterback Connor Bazelak throw for 330 yards with a group of wideouts that would also fall in that "OK" category. And now they have to deal with the high-octane Cavaliers offense led by one of the best quarterbacks in college football.
This Virginia offense will be a problem matchup for Illinois’ secondary and if the Cavaliers' defense can force the Illini into a couple of turnovers, Virginia won’t just have a chance to cover this spread but win the game outright as well. The wrong team might be favored here.
Mississippi State -10.5 (-110)
It was really nice to see Arizona get its season off to a good start with an upset win at San Diego State. The Wildcats defeated the Aztecs 38-20 as 6-point road dogs. But San Diego State is one of the more stagnant offenses in the country while its defense looked like a shell of its former elite self.
Things get quite a bit tougher in Week 2 when Arizona welcomes the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Mike Leach’s air raid offense to town.
Mississippi State was maybe even more impressive in Week 1, dismantling Memphis 49-23 as a 17-point home favorite, and quarterback Will Rogers looked as comfortable as ever in his third year in Leach’s pass-happy system.
A year after completing a ridiculous 505 passes for 4,739 yards with 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions, Rogers opened 2022 by throwing for 450 yards, five scores, and one pick in last week’s win over the Tigers.
Rogers also spread the ball around really well in that game, with four Bulldogs catching at least five passes and all five touchdowns going to a different player.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs defense is in good shape returning all its starters on the front, and should do a much better job of creating pressure on Wildcats quarterback Jayden de Laura than San Diego State did.
Arizona is showing legitimate improvement in Year 3 of Jedd Fisch’s tenure. The Bulldogs are just stronger in all those areas (QB, on both lines, skill positions) the Wildcats are showing that improvement. On top of that, the Arizona secondary has plenty of question marks, which isn’t a great thing against an air raid offense.
Arizona might make this interesting for a bit but won’t be able to keep up with Mississippi State over the course of 60 minutes. The Bulldogs will cover this moderate spread in the process.
Week 2 odds overview
Michigan (-51.5) vs Hawaii
This line isn’t just the biggest spread of the week, it’s one of the biggest spreads between two FBS opponents ever. It’s just the seventh time since 2005 that an FBS team has been at least a 50-point favorite against another FBS team. Four of the other six were Nick Saban-led Alabama teams. Shocker, I know.
Iowa State vs Iowa O/U: 39.5
This is the only total lower than 40 on the board this week. It should come as no surprise that the game involves Iowa. You probably heard all the jokes about the Hawkeyes offense after putting up just seven points against FCS South Dakota State. Quarterback Spencer Petras is a disaster. But even this number might be low enough to consider the Over. This matchup would have gone Over 39.5 in four of the last six years.
Wake Forest (-11.5) at Vanderbilt
The Demon Deacons got some great news this week as quarterback Sam Hartman was cleared to return to the field. Hartman has been out since August 10 due to a blood clot issue. Wake Forest held serve in Hartman’s absence, beating VMI 44-10 in Week 1 but will be thrilled to have its star QB back.
In 2021, Hartman led the Demon Deacons to an ACC Atlantic title, throwing for 4,228 yards and 39 touchdowns while adding another 363 yards and 11 scores on the ground. He should be a full go for this game.
