College Football Picks and Predictions Week 2: Oregon Makes a Boise Statement

Duke-Northwestern Under 37.5

Best odds: -110 at bet365

Shhh… Don’t tell anyone. But we may have an edge sportsbooks are not accounting for, and it’s with the Northwestern Wildcats of all teams. Well, their stadium, at least.

For those who don’t know, Northwestern’s regular stadium, Ryan Field is undergoing renovations for the next two years. For now, the Wildcats will be playing at picturesque Martin Stadium. It sits right on the shore of Lake Michigan, and while it’s beautiful, it’s, of course, windy.

That means lots of running the football, and if you mix in some solid defense, we can be looking at a steady stream of Unders. It started last week with Northwestern’s 13-6 win over Miami (Ohio) and I’m betting it continues when the Wildcats welcome the Duke Blue Devils to town.

Northwestern’s success this season will rely on its defense. This is a unit that allowed 22.5 points per game and returns eight starters. The Wildcats defense began the season strong, keeping the RedHawks out of the end zone and limiting them to just 4.3 yards per play.

I like Northwestern’s chances of continuing that strong play against Duke. It’s a new era for the Blue Devils. Mike Elko is now the coach at Texas A&M, and quarterback Riley Leonard is under center at Notre Dame.

Manny Diaz is the new head coach, while sophomore quarterback and Texas transfer Maalik Murphy will run the offense. As such, it appears there will be some growing pains for the Blue Devils, who managed just 26 points and averaged a paltry 5.3 yards per in their opener against FCS Elon, in a game where they were 24.5-point favorites.

Let’s circle back to the playing conditions at Martin Stadium. The forecast is calling for chances of rain and 18-20 mile per hour winds. And while the temps will be in the 60s, that wind is going to make it feel colder. 

Let’s ride the Under magic of Martin Stadium for at least another week.

Appalachian State +17

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

Reality hit the Clemson Tigers like a ton of bricks in Week 1. While Clemson was able to hang with No. 1-ranked Georgia for a while, the discrepancy between the two teams became more and more apparent as the game went on.

Clemson’s solid defense did its best to keep them in the game. But when it was clear that quarterback Cade Klubnik wasn’t going to be able to produce points, it felt like the game was a lost cause, and the Dawgs pulled away late.

While some aren’t ready to bury Clemson, I’m not too far from it. Sure, the Tigers could still win the ACC this season. But I think that says more about the state of the ACC this season. And worst of all, Klubnik is not him.

Now, many are calling this week’s game against Appalachian State a great bounce-back spot for Clemson, the Tigers are 17-point favorites. But I’m not so sure.

The Tigers aren’t just coming off a physical pounding from the Dawgs, but an emotional one as well, knowing they aren’t on Georgia’s level and the return to championship contention looks further away than it has in a while.

Then there's the actual matchup with App State. You may not realize it, but this game means a lot to the Mountaineers. App State has aspirations of a Sun Belt Conference title and a potential playoff berth.

Leading the Mountaineers is senior QB Joey Aguilar. Last season, he threw for 3,757 yards while completing 64% of his passes with 33 touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions. And while App State isn’t Georgia by any means, they have a strong defensive front seven that can give Klubnik some problems.

Oh, and if you haven’t heard, Appalachian State hasn’t been too shabby as a big underdog. The Mountaineers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as double-digit dogs vs. Power Four opponents. The most recent came in 2022 when they visited Texas A&M as 18-point road dogs, and all they did was leave Kyle Field with an outright win.

This game means more to Appalachian State. If they play Clemson tough and manage to win the Sun Belt, that will look good in the College Football Playoff committee’s eyes. I’ll take the points with the Mountaineers.

Oregon team total Over 40.5

Best odds: -120 at DraftKings

The Oregon Ducks were given a bit of a scare in Week 1, as they had to sweat out a matchup with FCS Idaho by a score of 24-14. Suffice it to say, the Ducks were nowhere close to covering the massive 49-point chalk.
 
But I’m not worried about the Ducks from that one result and I’m going to give them a pass. 

My gut says Dan Lanning ran the most vanilla offense possible in that game and was already looking ahead to this week’s matchup against the Boise State Broncos.

Reminder: This was an Oregon offense that ranked second in the nation in yards per play. I’ve gone on record saying that I believe Dillon Gabriel is a better college quarterback than Bo Nix and I’m betting he shows that in this great matchup against the Broncos.

Sure, Boise State got a win over Georgia Southern as 13-point favorites in Week 0. But boy, that defense looked really bad, and the Broncos sure as hell didn’t cover.

Boise State ended up winning 56-45 and allowed JC French, a sophomore QB making his first career start, to throw for 322 yards and two scores. I’m going out on a limb here by saying slowing down Oregon will be a tougher task.

What makes those 45 points from the Eagles even more impressive is the fact that star Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty gashed Georgia Southern all game. That meant long drives and more time off the clock. I don’t expect Jeanty will be able to be as effective against this Oregon front seven. That, in turn, should mean more possessions for the Ducks to light up that scoreboard.

With that in mind, give me Oregon to go Over its team total in Week 2.