When it rains, it pours. My college football betting slump continued last week. This time, it was aided by two overtime losses and a penalty that cost Oregon a half-closing field goal. But I digress.
So, it’s officially time to fade these picks until I have turned it around. That said, I’m praying this is the week I turn it around. We do that by looking at an undervalued service academy and the college football late-night degenerate special. Yes. A Hawaii home game.
Those and more as the Triple Option returns with my best college football picks and predictions for Week 5.
College football picks and predictions for Week 5
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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College football Week 5 picks
Army -7.5 (-110)
We need an easy win. I need an easy win. Something to break my way. Anything. And Army -7.5 looks like a solid candidate to help pull me out of this funk.
The Army Black Knights enter this weekend’s matchup with the Ball State Cardinals with a perfect 4-0 record but are just 2-2 ATS. Meanwhile, Ball State comes into this one with a 1-3 record and has yet to cover a spread this season.
But the reason to like Army in this one is because of its run game. Its triple-option offense is in peak form this season. The Knights have the No. 2 rushing game in the country, rumbling for 344.5 yards per game, and are doing it a clip of 5.3 yards per carry.
They are going up against a Ball State defense that is getting absolutely gashed by the ground game this season. The Cardinals rank 107th in rushing defense, surrendering 189.8 yards per game and 5.3 yards per attempt.
Additionally, the Ball State offense has also sputtered. The Cardinals' 3.8 yards per play is better than only seven other of the 130 FBS teams. It will be difficult for the team to sustain drives, while the Army offense leads the nation in time of possession at just over 40 minutes per game.
A triple-option to save the Triple Option? It sounds so corny it just might work.
Ohio State -14.5 (-110)
When you’re trying to turn things around, it feels good backing a good team to excel at what they are good at.
Confused? Good. Me too.
But that’s exactly what we are doing with the Ohio State Buckeyes as they visit the Rutgers Scarlet Knights this weekend.
Rutgers is coming off a strong performance against Michigan where it covered a 20-point spread in a 20-13 loss at the Big House, which is no small feat. But while the Knights’ defense has some good numbers on the surface, that has come against Michigan (overrated), FCS Delaware, Syracuse, and Temple. The Buckeyes present a completely different challenge.
Rutgers’ biggest problem on defense has been giving up the big play and Ohio State is more than well equipped to take advantage of opportunities down the field.
It sounds like quarterback CJ Stroud is healthy once again and everyone knows about his deadly duo at wide receiver in Chris Olave and Garret Wilson (Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn’t too bad, either).
But freshman running back TreVeyon Henderson is everything Ohio State had hoped he would be and is what makes this offense truly dangerous. The blue-chip back already has 439 yards on just 46 carries, with nine going for scores.
Rutgers will have to respect Henderson and that will allow Stroud to pick the secondary apart with his wicked wideouts. The Scarlet Knights won’t know what hit them.
Fresno State -10.5 (-110)
Should a guy in a slump be betting the college football late-night degenerate special — meaning Hawaii home games, and fade the home team? Well, that’s exactly what I’m doing.
Let’s get this out of the way. Fresno State is a really good football team. Yes, the Bulldogs got off to a slow start against UNLV and were unable to cover the 30-point spread but you can give them a bit of a break.
The Bulldogs were coming off a huge win over UCLA the week before and were set up for a bit of a letdown. And after falling behind 14-0, they outscored the Rebels 38-16. Plus, in its only loss of the season, Fresno State gave No. 3 Oregon a run for its money, falling by just a touchdown.
The Bulldogs are led by a lethal passing attack behind quarterback Jake Haener and wideout Jalen Cropper. But there's depth, too. Running back Ronnie Rivers is a threat out of the backfield and wideout Josh Kelly makes you pick your poison with the Bulldogs.
As a result, Fresno State has the country’s third-rated passing attack in terms of yards per game and is 13th in scoring at 42 points per contest.
Late Saturday night, and into the wee hours of Sunday morning for those of us on the East Coast, Fresno State will go against a struggling Rainbow Warriors pass defense. Hawaii ranks 112th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game and has trouble pressuring the QB, ranking 79th in sack percentage. Giving Haener time to work will be a problem.
Fresno State has its eyes on the Group of 5 spot in the New Year’s Six Bowl Game. With a bye following this matchup, there is no lookahead spot, so expect Fresno State to give Hawaii its full attention. This line is simply giving the Rainbow Warriors a bit too much respect.
Week 5 odds overview
Ole Miss at Alabama (-14.5, 80): Eighty. The total for this game is 80. Yes, I know this matchup cleared 100 points last season, but you almost have to bet the Under here on principle alone. And don't think Nick Saban doesn't remember that the Rebels put up 48 points last year. This Crimson Tide defense is much better this time around.
Cincinnati at Notre Dame (+2, 50.5): I'm not blowing smoke up your butt when I tell you I think Cincy is one of the best teams in the country. But even I think this line is wrong. This number should be reversed. Notre Dame is coming off a huge win against Wisconsin and is now getting points at home? I don't get it.
Arkansas at Georgia (-18.5, 48): Talk me out of the Razorbacks +18.5. Please. Last week against Texas A&M was supposed to be the test to see if the Hogs are for real. And they passed with flying colors. I get Georgia has looked awesome on both sides of the ball, but it has not faced even an average offense at this point. Maybe wait a little longer to see if more Georgia money comes in, but the Hogs are tempting.
Odds current at time of publish. Check out our college football odds screen to see live odds and to shop for the best prices.
Week 5 Triple Option betting card
- Army -7.5 (-110)
- Ohio State -14.5 (-110)
- Fresno State -10.5 (-110)
Last week: 0-2-1 ATS (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 3-9-1 ATS (Risking 1 unit per play)
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