The slump is over! (Finally). That’s right, we cashed in last week with my first 3-0 week of the season and we’ll try to keep rolling as I head into a two-week break for my wedding and honeymoon.
So, for an early wedding gift for myself, I’ll actually put faith in an ACC favorite as the Pittsburgh Panthers visit Virginia Tech and then we look at a ridiculously high total for an SEC showdown between the Ole Miss Rebels and the Tennessee Volunteers.
Those and more as the Triple Option returns with my best college football picks and predictions for Week 7.
College football picks and predictions for Week 7
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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College football Week 7 picks
Pittsburgh -4.5 (-110)
The ACC is still an absolute mess at the moment. You literally can’t rely on anyone, as underdogs are a ridiculous 14-4 (77.8 percent) in ACC conference games so far this season. While Pittsburgh is a meager 1-0 SU/ATS in conference play and 4-1 overall, the one loss was to Western Michigan as two-touchdown favorites.
And now, I am asking you to back the Panthers as short favorites in one of the toughest venues in college football, as Lane Stadium gets prepared for another epic “Enter Sandman” introduction this weekend. I must be nuts, right? Well, hear me out.
For starters, Pitt has the best quarterback in the country no one is talking about in Kenny Pickett. The super senior is completing 72 percent of his passes for 1,721 yards with 19 touchdowns and just one interception. Heck, Pickett may not just be the best quarterback no one is talking about, but just the best quarterback in the country, period.
He leads a Panthers offense that ranks third in total yards per game and fourth in passing yards. Pitt also runs the ball just well enough that you have to respect it. Out wide, Jordan Anderson is a stud and Taysir Mack is another deep threat, while tight end Lucas Krull has been a beast in the red zone.
They go up against a solid Virginia Tech defense, but they are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to opponent yards per play, ranking 48th in the country, and are coming off a game against Notre Dame where they allowed a season-worst 394 yards per game.
But the real problem for the Hokies is the offense. Quarterback Hank Burmeister has been inconsistent, completing just 58.8 percent of his passes and the running game has had trouble getting going averaging just 3.6 yards per attempt. While the Pitt D can get burned by the big play, the Hokies don’t really pose that threat and their ferocious front seven should cause problems here.
On top of that, Virginia Tech is in a bit of a letdown spot after choking away a late lead over the Irish last week. Yes, it has been tough to back ACC favorites this season, but this looks like one of the best spots to back on this season.
TCU +13.5 (-110)
It has been a weird week in Norman. It feels like Lincoln Riley is one of those crazy old ball coaches after all.
Oklahoma is coming off a massive comeback win over Texas in the Red River Showdown. But that comeback included the benching of preseason Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler for backup Caleb Williams.
Rattler had to sit on the sidelines and watch as Williams led scoring drive after scoring drive and eventually earned the victory for the Sooners. But this is when the weirdness begins.
Riley didn't give media availability for much of the week, after it came out that Williams received the majority of the first-team reps in practice. Plus, there were rumors of blacked-out windows in the practice facility so no one could watch.
But what are you doing, Lincoln? Everyone watched you bench Rattler and stick with Williams last week. We know Williams is the starter this week. Who are you trying to fool?
Anyways. Now, oddsmakers are asking Oklahoma to cover a 13.5-point spread, in what could be a letdown spot after last week's crazy win, and all that drama around the program? No thanks.
But, there’s more. It’s not like the Caleb Williams sample size is that huge. And while this isn’t the Gary Patterson defense we are used to at TCU, he is still one of the best defensive minds in the country and you know he’ll throw a bunch of crazy schemes at a kid making his first career start.
TCU quarterback Max Duggan and running back Zack Evans are banged up, but if they are good to go, this number to too large to say no to against an Oklahoma team that hasn't beaten an FBS opponent by more than a TD this season.
Ole Miss-Tennessee Under 84 (-110)
Eighty-four. The total for this game has reached 84. Do you really need any more explanation than that? Yes, this is a matchup of two of the fastest-paced offenses in the country, but the number is 84. Eight-four!
For starters, the Ole Miss defense is better than what we saw in last week’s 52-51 win over Arkansas, which was a gutsy win for the Rebels after getting beat up by Alabama the week before. Prior to last week’s game, Ole Miss was giving up a much more reasonable 371.3 yards per game. That would rank 49th in the country this week.
And, are we really giving this much credit to Tennessee? Yes, it has rumbled its way to big victories each of the last two weeks, but that was against Missouri and South Carolina. Additionally, the Vols' offense is one-dimensional and struggled in the two games against decent teams (Florida and Pittsburgh).
Think about it this way. This game could end 45-38 and still not hit the Over. Did we mention the total is 84? Under!
Week 7 odds overview
Florida at LSU (+11.5, 59.5): For my money, Florida is the top two-loss team in the country. Its two losses have come by a total of nine points to two teams currently in the Top 10. Meanwhile, LSU looks like a mess and is ready to Geaux home early this season. Florida looks like a solid play this week, first half and full game.
Kentucky at Georgia (-21.5, 44.5): Normally, out of principle, you take an underdog this massive with a total this low. But Georgia isn't normal. We are looking at an all-time defense in Athens and they will make Chris Rodriguez look mortal and force Will Levis to beat them with his arm. Spoiler alert. He can't. Georgia is the bet here.
Alabama at Mississippi State (-17, 58): I have no idea what to make of this line. On one hand, I think Mississippi State could be in a bad place against a ticked Alabama team. On the other, the Bulldogs actually went into Kyle Field and came out with the victory. College football is weird this season.
Odds current at time of publish. Check out our college football odds screen to see live odds and to shop for the best prices.
Week 7 Triple Option betting card
- Pittsburgh -4.5 (-110)
- TCU +13.5 (-110)
- Ole Miss-Tennessee Under 84 (-110)
Last week: 3-0 ATS, +2.69 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 7-11-1 ATS, - 4.67 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week's Triple Option picks, you could win $59.58 on a $10 bet?
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