Pittsburgh vs Louisville Odds, Picks and Predictions: Panthers Pull Off Upset on the Road

As the Louisville Cardinals’ season slips away, the Pittsburgh Panthers can still dream about winning the ACC. More accurately, dream may be an unfair verb, the Panthers’ hopes are all yet quite attainable.

Pitt needs to worry about North Carolina and Miami to win the ACC Coastal in its last year of existence, both still ahead of the Panthers on their schedule this season. Building some momentum heading into those against an Atlantic cellar dweller may be the expectation for Pittsburgh this weekend.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Pittsburgh vs Louisville on October 22, with kickoff set for 8:00 ET.

Pittsburgh vs Louisville best odds

Pittsburgh vs Louisville picks and predictions

Why is Louisville favored? The Cardinals are 1-3 in ACC play this year, and that does not quite illustrate how middling they are. Losing to Boston College is a sign of a team in struggle.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, lost to Georgia Tech to open October. That head scratcher could somewhat be explained away as the Yellow Jackets’ bouncing back after head coach Geoff Collins’ firing.

Clearly, both the Panthers and Cardinals are capable of failing to show up for kickoff (obviously, figuratively speaking). That returns us to the initial question, why is Louisville favored? For that matter, why has the line moved toward the Cardinals after opening with them favored by just one point?

They do not do anything better than Pittsburgh. That could be the end of this handicap, because that comparison is all-encompassing. When the better team is a field-goal underdog, hop on the money line as a value play.

But let’s drive home the point. Both teams have played four Power Five opponents, one Group of Five foe, and one lesser than that. (Okay, sorry South Florida, you didn’t need that stray, but that does not mean it is inaccurate). Against those slates…

Pittsburgh has scored 35.0 points per game: Louisville has scored 27.7.

Pittsburgh gives up 5.08 yards per play: Louisville gives up 5.69.

Louisville’s weakness is Pittsburgh’s strength. The Cardinals’ offense losing 0.09 expected points per pass play, per cfb-graphs, while the Panthers’ defense ranks No. 3 in the country in that exact respect. All of Louisville’s offense should be overmatched against Pittsburgh’s defense, at which point, the question will be if Panthers quarterback Kedon Slovis can score enough to lead Pittsburgh to a win and keep its Coastal hopes alive.

That Coastal thought may sound abstract, but that intangible matters here. The Panthers still have a chance at defending their ACC title, while Louisville is only hoping to win enough to keep Scott Satterfield employed. An aspiration should always motivate a team more than a desperation.

This handicapper is genuinely confounded as to why the Cardinals are favored. Sometimes this kind of stinky line inspires a swerve toward confusion, but usually, there is at least a touch of logic in those approaches. There is no such logic this week, only value in picking Pittsburgh to further endanger Satterfield’s career.

My best bet: Pittsburgh moneyline (+118 at BetRivers)

Pittsburgh vs Louisville spread analysis

In these moments of bewilderment, sometimes the hook can do all the work for your pondering. Only one book, as of Friday’s earliest hours, has given Louisville that whole field goal of an edge. All the others have perched the Cardinals at -2.5. The books are not committing to this spread, at least not strongly.

Louisville remains favored, but that hook agrees with the uncertainty.

It also underscores leaning into the value of the money line rather than simply betting Pittsburgh to cover. Yes, 1 and 2-point wins are more common as teams lean into analytics, not to mention the new overtime rules, but when working with Pat Narduzzi, analytical aggression should not be a worry.

Lastly, it should be noted both these teams are 1-2 in one-score games this season, but that is more a continuation of a trend for Louisville than for Pittsburgh. The Cardinals went 2-4 in one-score games last year, compared to the Panthers’ 2-2 showing. Worse yet, Louisville was 0-4 in one-score games in 2020. Tight contests are not Satterfield’s specialty.

Pittsburgh vs Louisville Over/Under analysis

The anticipated mismatch between Pittsburgh’s defense and Louisville’s offense could doom anyone’s hopes of an Over of this total of 55. The Cardinals struggle on early downs against subpar defenses and do not make up for it on third or fourth downs. The Panthers’ defense excels in both regards.

The game flow here could quickly turn Louisville into a one-dimensional offense, in part because it will scuffle from the outset and in part because those lost early possessions will influence play calling later on, likely forcing the Cardinals to abandon what is not working — otherwise known as the pass.

Therein will lie the rub. Once trailing, Louisville will clearly need to throw late in the game to catch up. If that is its most doomed offensive approach to start with, then its desperation will only further the misery.

Pittsburgh vs Louisville betting trend to know

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games, including 1-0 in its only trip this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Pittsburgh vs. Louisville.

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