All good things come to an end, and the five straight weeks of joy in this weekly column ended in Week 10. Missing quarterback Kyren Drones, Virginia Tech botched its lead against Syracuse, Nebraska laid an egg at home against UCLA, and Clemson took it on the chin from Louisville.
And that is not even getting into the pain of not cashing a “Will Howard anytime touchdown” ticket. If Howard had held onto the ball for another two feet, last week’s frustrating column would have gone 2-3 for a loss of less than half a unit. The point is, even a frustrating week was still sound in process for our college football best bets.
That process can now take us past the -2.78 unit hole for the season, 20.5-24.5 in results. Week 11 is the moment for my latest college football picks...
College football predictions for Week 11
- Iowa -6 (-110)
- Minnesota -6 (-110)
- Army/North Texas u64.5 (-110)
- Boise State 1H -14 (+100)
- Duke ML (+130)
Picks made on 11-07. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
College football Week 11 predictions
Iowa -6 at UCLA
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
UCLA notched a quality win last week at Nebraska and deserves due credit for that. However, that victory came in no small part thanks to a Dylan Raiola mistake, an easy interception returned for a touchdown in a 7-point win.
No such gift should come this week. In his two starts, Iowa quarterback Brendan Sullivan has hardly thrown enough passes to worry about an interception, going 16-of-24 with an average of 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Furthermore, while on the topic, UCLA is hardly one to force a bulk of turnovers, gaining only seven in eight games.
Back to Sullivan. Since turning to him, Iowa has found what may have always been Kirk Feretnz’s platonic form. Iowa has gone 2-0 against the spread, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by 19.5 points per game in those two. Sullivan may not throw often, but he throws enough to provide a more well-rounded offense than Cade McNamara ever did. Sullivan’s 16 rushes for 112 yards in those two games emphasize the approach the Hawkeyes now enjoy.
On the other side of the ball, UCLA’s offense is too wretched to keep up with Iowa amid this newfound Hawkeyes’ competence. Iowa’s defense is still, ya know, an Iowa defense. It might not give up a scoring opportunity to the Bruins all Friday night.
At that point, any spread within a touchdown is much too short.
Minnesota -6 at Rutgers
Best odds: -110 at Caesars
Minnesota has not garnered as much notice as it deserves because Big Ten officials got a penalty call wrong at the end of September, costing the Golden Gophers a last-minute chance at upsetting Michigan.
Starting from there, the Gophers have gone on a four-game outright winning streak, covering the spread in seven of their last eight games.
After a tough start to the season, Minnesota has found its groove mostly because star running back Darius Taylor has found health. In the last five games (all ATS wins), Taylor has averaged 24.6 touches with 5.2 yards per touch.
Taylor’s surge should continue against Rutgers, as the Scarlet Knights’ season was initially undone by injuries and now unraveling due to a weakening defense. Rutgers ranks No. 103 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per rush against and No. 122 in rushing success rate against, per cfb-graphs.
Letting Taylor dictate a game creates a comfort level for Minnesota quarterback Max Brosmer, and that combination should readily outpace Rutgers.
Army at 
North Texas Under 64.5
Best odds: -110 at Caesars
Maybe Army star quarterback Bryson Daily plays. Black Knights head coach Jeff Monken described Daily as “somewhere between questionable to probable” on Tuesday. “His health is improving,” Monken added.
That all remains vague. Army has not said exactly what is wrong with Daily, an injury or illness popping up during the Knights’ idle week. Focusing on the spread indicates Daily will not play, sitting with Army favored by -6.5 on Sunday and ticking down to -4 by Thursday.
Either way, the Knights should win. That may be presumptive with only a four-point spread, but it remains true.
If Army has dreams of reaching the CFP, then two weeks from now is more important than winning with ease at North Texas. The Knights face Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium just before Thanksgiving; Daily needs to be completely healthy then, not this Saturday.
That spread movement suggesting Daily will sit creates immense value in the Under, as Army is far less explosive without Daily’s passing touch. If he is indeed out, or even just slowed, the Knights will return to a more traditional triple-option attack against a Mean Green defense that ranks in the bottom third of the country in rushing success rate and EPA per rush against.
Army will shorten this game and escape to give Daily his best chance at recovery. It may be close on the scoreboard. Mostly, it will be a return to a purist’s favorite football.
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Boise State 1H -14 vs. Nevada
Best odds: +100 at BetMGM
Sometimes this “Best Bet” column runs long. I do not apologize, I prefer my favorite child to include in-depth analysis. But here, let’s make this quick:
Boise State has Heisman-hopeful Ashton Jeanty and, thus, the No. 1 EPA per rush offense in the country.
Nevada has the No. 106 EPA per rush defense, and, even worse at No. 120 in rushing success rate against.
Rather clearly, the Broncos should score often and early. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack offense fails to produce explosive plays. It will not keep up until Boise State lets off the gas late.
Duke moneyline at North Carolina State
Best odds: +130 at Caesars
What does North Carolina State do well enough to be favored here? Its passing offense is decent, but far from good. There is nothing else about the Wolfpack that warrants praise. Yes, they are the home team, but amid a 5-4 season, how delightful will that environment be?
That passing offense may struggle against a Duke defense that thrives at creating havoc. In the last three games, the Blue Devils have logged eight sacks, 19 tackles for loss, and 12 forced turnovers.
NC State has no asset strong enough to counter that.
Duke should be favored, even on the road.
Not intended for use in MA.
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