There's a solid argument to be made that the Purdue Boilermakers are the worst team in the Big Ten, and now they must face the surprise team of the conference this Saturday when they take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign.
My Purdue vs. Illinois predictions see another one-sided affair involving the Boilermakers unfolding as I detail my best Week 7 college football picks for October 12.
Purdue vs Illinois prediction and best bet
My best bet
Illinois -22.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Purdue Boilermakers won their opener over an FCS opponent but have been absolutely dominated in four games since. They have allowed 50 or more points twice already, including last week against the 80th-ranked offense in the country in Wisconsin. However, the Boilermakers’ woes extend to both sides of the ball.
Purdue ranks 121st in scoring and 120th in total yards. The Boilermakers have only converted 30.5% of their third downs and one of four fourth downs. They also rank 119th in time of possession and have a -6 turnover margin. It’s basically an all-systems failure for the Boilermakers this season.
Meanwhile, the Illinois Fighting Illini have been a fantastic surprise, starting the season 4-0 before taking their first loss of the season last week at Penn State. However, they still held their own in that game and covered the spread. The Illini defense has been spectacular, allowing only 14.2 points per game.
While the Fighting Illini have not been great on offense, they have been very efficient. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has 11 touchdowns to only one interception, which has led to a +5 turnover margin for the team. They also rank 35th nationally in fewest penalty yards.
It is tough to beat a team more talented than you when they also protect the ball and don’t make mistakes.
Illinois has major advantages in almost every aspect of this game. They are not typically a team that will blow other schools out, but this Purdue team is just so bad and will not be able to score. It may only take about 30 points for the Illini offense to cover this spread here.
Purdue vs Illinois same-game parlay (SGP)
Illinois -22.5
Under 48.5
This will be a very simple same-game parlay where we just stick with the spread and the total. I already discussed why I like the spread, but just one more reason would be that Purdue has lost by 140 points overall in their four losses and even lost by 110 points combined to the spread.
For the total, I am sticking with the Under even though Illinois needs to cover a big number. Purdue very well may not get into double-digits here and the Illini are not going to light it up themselves. Illinois thrives on efficiency and not speed, and they will get their scoring slowly over time to cover the spread, but not hit this Over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Purdue vs Illinois odds
Purdue vs Illinois live odds
Purdue vs Illinois opening odds
- Purdue vs. Illinois spread: Illinois -18.5
- Purdue vs. Illinois moneyline: Purdue +800, Illinois -1,400
- Purdue vs. Illinois Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Purdue vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened as low as Illinois -17 but has skyrocketed to 22.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
- The spread has only been more than two touchdowns once in the last 10 games between these two teams, but the favorite covered that big spread in that one matchup.
- The total opened at 49.5 and climbed early to 50.5 before free-falling to 48.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
- The last two matchups between these two teams went Over the total but the previous five matchups went Under the total.
Purdue vs Illinois betting trend to know
Illinois have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games. Find more college football betting trends for Purdue vs Illinois.
Purdue vs Illinois game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Purdue vs Illinois latest injuries
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