Rice vs Texas Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Will Ewers & Co. Deliver the Goods?

One of the most lopsided rivalries in college football returns on Saturday with the Rice Owls heading to Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns.

Rice has won just twice since 1960 and with Longhorn faithful ready to proclaim “Texas is back” in head coach Steve Sarkisian’s third season at the helm, spirits will be high in Austin and expectations will be even higher.

With a star quarterback and future NFL players all over the offense, expect plenty of points to be scored as Texas looks to build momentum in its last season in the Big 12. 

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Rice vs. Texas on Saturday, September 2.

Rice vs Texas best odds

Rice vs Texas picks and predictions

In their final season before joining the SEC, the Texas Longhorns are the favorite to win the Big 12 with Sarkisian finally building the roster in his vision. The former Alabama offensive coordinator is a master of play designs that create mismatches and separation for his pass catchers, he just needed a triggerman who could make all the throws.

He now has that in former No. 1 recruit Quinn Ewers, who enters his second season as the starter at Texas after redshirting his freshman season at Ohio State.

While the Arch Manning discourse will linger, Ewers’ arm talent just pops off the tape (see the Alabama game in 2022). In what was really his true freshman season last year, he reclassified to the 2021 recruiting class, he dealt with injuries and inconsistent play but showed enough to be considered a potential first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

With Ewers leading the way and joined by 10 returning starters, the Longhorns are in position to improve on last year's offense that ranked 44th in EPA per play. They rank third in the country on offense in SP+’s returning production metric with 85% of their offensive production back this season.

Joining Ewers in what will be a point-scoring party against the Owls are receivers Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Jordan Whittington, and Isaiah Neyor. Those four make up one of the best wide receiver corps in the country and that’s not even mentioning tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (a Top-3 tight end prospect).

It’s going to be a long day for Rice Owls head coach Mike Bloomgren and an even longer one for defensive coordinator Brian Smith, whose unit finished 119th in defensive EPA per play last season. They were especially bad against the pass, finishing 127th.

Maybe it’s a bad thing that the Owls bring back 74% of their returning production on defense given how miserably they struggled in 2022. In their lone Power Five matchup last year, they lost 66-14 to USC.

To ensure a big Texas victory though, one big enough to cover the huge 35-point spread, the Longhorns defense will need to take care of business. They’ll be dealing with Rice quarterback JT Daniels, who is making his third career start against Texas at his third different program.

The former five-star recruit is at his fourth school since 2018 and brings experience to the Owls offense with his 6,947 career passing yards and 45 touchdowns... he also brings 25 interceptions in 32 games.

It’s not going to be easy to keep up with Ewers given the talent Texas returns on defense. The group is led by preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Jaylan Ford, defensive tackle duo T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II, and do-it-all DB Jahdae Barron.

There’s athleticism and size at every position on defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit, which finished 47th in defensive EPA per play last season and was 24th against the run.

Those numbers might not be astonishing, however, they’ll be enough against a Rice offense that was 79th in EPA per play and has tied its hopes to a journeyman quarterback. 

My best bet: Texas -35 (-110 at bet365)

Rice vs Texas same-game parlay

Texas -35.5 (+100)

Over 59.5 (-105)

+200 at bet365

For Texas to cover that spread, points need to be scored... and it’s a perfect tune-up game for Ewers & Co. to put their talents on display and build some real hype in their final Big 12 season.

It helps that Rice’s defense is so bad that it's been the catalyst for the program hitting the full-game Over in nine of their last 13 games (+4.60 units / 32% ROI).

The concern is always that if Texas gets up by enough, will they just take Ewers out? Well, with Manning and Maalik Murphy — another former blue-chip recruit — backing him up, it may not even matter.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rice vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

This game opened with Texas as the heavy favorite and nothing has changed. The Longhorns have been -35 or -35.5, depending on the book, the whole way and that’s likely not going to shift.

There’s more noise, both good and bad, around Texas right now than there’s been in years and it’s compounded by the fact that the rest of the Big 12 is openly hating on them as they play their last season in the conference.

Sarkisian and his team have said they’ll be “embracing the hate” this season and using it as a motivator.

"You can't just sit back and keep taking punches and it's just OK," Sarkisian said. "At some point, you have to go hunt and punch back and fight back. Every time we take the field, our opponents are going to get our best shot.”

That’s bad news for Rice, which went 5-8 last season and made their first bowl since 2014 (their high APR rate got them into a bowl despite a losing record), but good news for the Over.

The game total opened between 58.5 and 59 with most settling in around 59 ahead of Saturday’s game. Last season, the Longhorns played two Group of Five opponents (UL Monroe and UTSA) and on both occasions, the total went over 60.

As for Rice, in seven of their 13 games last season the total was over 60.

Rice vs Texas betting trend to know

Texas has gone over its team total in six of its last nine games (+2.55 units / 24% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Rice vs Texas.

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