Rice vs Tulsa Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Daniels Leads Owls in High-Scoring Affair

Midweek college football rumbles on as we head to the AAC tonight for a showdown between the Rice Owls and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. 

Both sides sit at .500 overall and are also both 1-1 in conference play, so expect a spirited effort from two teams coming off a bye week and fighting to get above .500.

Looking at the board for Week 8 college football odds, Tulsa is expected to win as a 3-point favorite while the total is set between 55.5 and 56.5. 

I’ve got my sights set on the total for Thursday’s best bet as both offenses have outplayed their respective defenses to this point in the season. 

Read on for my best bet and full college football picks for Rice vs. Tulsa on October 19.

Rice vs Tulsa best odds

Rice vs Tulsa picks and predictions

The Rice Owls offense has been a thing of beauty this season, checking into this matchup 24th in EPA per play, 32nd in success rate, and 19th in explosiveness.

Third-year OC Marquis Tuiasosopo boasts a unit that both moves the chains consistently and hits big plays. The calling card has been a dangerous passing attack that ranks 12th in EPA per pass and 15th in passing success rate. Tuiasosopo has heavily leaned into this aerial attack as the Owls pass at the seventh-highest rate in the nation.

Former five-star recruit JT Daniels has finally found his home after stints with USC and Georgia, leading an offense averaging 316.2 passing yards per game.

He has a former Nebraska quarterback as his go-to wide receiver — Luke McCaffrey, brother of the esteemed CMC, has 514 receiving yards and six touchdowns on the year. Redshirt freshman Rawson MacNiell stands 6-foot-5 and has emerged as a threat with 16 receptions for 215 yards and two touchdowns across his last three games. 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane hasn’t been great on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 97th in EPA per play and 87th in both success rate and explosiveness. The secondary has repeatedly been beaten (116th in EPA per pass, 119th in passing success rate), which is especially worrisome in this matchup. 

Of course, those metrics are skewed a bit considering the Golden Hurricane had two very difficult non-conference matchups. They surrendered 454 passing yards four touchdowns to Michael Penix and Washington in Week 2 and then 476 passing yards and six TDs to Dillon Gabriel and Oklahoma in Week 3. Other than that, they’ve performed pretty well and have held three other opponents to 150 passing yards or fewer. 

Rice has thrown the ball consistently well this season and I’m banking on Daniels and this passing attack finding success against a Golden Hurricane team that ranks just 127th in PFF’s coverage grade. 

Offensively, the Golden Hurricane like to keep the ball on the ground (ninth nationally in rush rate) but have actually made most of their hay via big plays through the air (seventh in passing explosiveness, 28th in EPA per pass).

Freshman Cardell Williams has been the starter for every game since Week 1 but was pulled in Tulsa’s most recent game after throwing for just 115 yards on 20 attempts. Week 1 starter Braylon Braxton performed well in his limited action, throwing for 67 yards and a touchdown on just eight attempts. It appears this team has a quarterback controversy heading into Week 8. 

Whoever's under center for Kevin Wilson’s squad has hope for success against a Rice defense that surrendered 597 yards on 8.5 yards per play against South Florida and then 6.5 yards per play to lowly UConn in its last matchup.

The Owls have shown signs of toughness this year (6.1 yards per play against Texas, 4.7 yards per play against East Carolina) but have been beaten more often than not and Wilson is an offensive-minded coach who should be able to scheme up some success here at home coming off a bye. 

My best bet: Over 55.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Rice vs Tulsa same-game parlay

Over 56 (-110)

Rawson MacNeill anytime TD (+150)

+250 at DraftKings

This two-leg SGP is centered around my best bet but I'm also going to add Rice wide receiver Rawson MacNeill to find the end zone at +150.

The Owls lost a big-bodied receiver late in the offseason when Brad Rozner transferred to NC State, which was a big blow considering the 6-foot-5 super-senior has 17 career touchdown grabs, including 10 last season.

MacNeill has helped fill the void and has firmly entrenched himself as the secondary target in this offense as just a redshirt freshman, handling 27 targets across his last three games including 14 in his most recent outing. Standing 6-foot-5, he makes for a perfect red zone target (and Rozner clone!) for a team that throws the ball a ton and faces a burnable Tulsa defense. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rice vs Tulsa spread and Over/Under analysis

The Golden Hurricane opened below a field goal at some spots but have since moved to -3 across the board, and even a -3.5 is available at the time of this writing. The total opened at 58.5 but has since been bet down a few points, residing between 55.5 and 56.5 depending on where you look. 

I like the Owls against the spread in this matchup as they’ve arguably been the better team on both sides of the ball this season and are catching points instead of laying them. Their offense will be the best unit on the field and even the defense ranks seven spots ahead of their opponent in EPA per play.

Tulsa had very few expectations heading into Year 1 under Kevin Wilson but has performed admirably thus far, giving reason for optimism in their four matchups that weren’t squash matches against Top-10 teams. That being said, I still don’t trust the Golden Hurricane laying points as I have questions on both sides of the ball going forward and they don’t have a single decent win this year.

Rice hasn’t given much reason for optimism across the last three weeks, losing to two bad teams (South Florida and UConn) and beating another (24-17 over ECU). That being said, Rice has shown plenty of life in non-conference play, playing Texas much closer than anticipated and beating Houston while outgaining them by 0.9 yards per play.

The Owls are -5 in turnover differential on the year but can make some noise in conference play if they clean up those mistakes. 

Rice vs Tulsa betting trend to know

Rice is 8-5 O/U across its last 13 games. Find more college football betting trends for Rice vs Tulsa.

Rice vs Tulsa game info

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