Rutgers vs USC Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for Week 9

Two teams in a world of hurt look to get back on track as the USC Trojans (3-4, 1-4 Big Ten) and Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-3, 1-3) square off at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Friday night. 

Lincoln Riley may be on the hot seat after three straight losses, while Rutgers has also lost three straight, two of which occurred at home. Which team will get back on track in my Rugers vs. USC predictions?

Read on for my best bet and college football picks for Friday, October 25 below.

Rutgers vs USC predictions

Early spread lean
Rutgers +14 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis
There's simply no way I could lay two touchdowns with the USC Trojans until they prove they can consistently win Big Ten football games. Lincoln Riley’s squad's latest embarrassment came at the hands of Maryland, making it three straight defeats for a coach who finds himself on the hot seat after sustained disappointment. 

The two big storylines for USC this year are how the offense looks sans Caleb Williams and a supposedly improved defense under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn. The offense has been fine, led by Miller Moss (434 total yards per game on 6.2 yards per play), and the defense is improved while still having some warts.

The defense is down several crucial pieces. Bear Alexander was supposed to be the star of the show heading into the year but has since taken the redshirt following a dispute over playing time. Anthony Lucas was playing like arguably the most effective piece up front but has since been lost for the year, while linebacker Eric Gentry (team-high 6.5 tackles for loss in just four games) is out indefinitely with a concussion.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights haven’t followed through on their promise. There were high hopes that Greg Schiano would improve upon last year’s 7-6 record, and while that seemed to be the case after four straight wins to start the year, there’s been a twist of fate after three straight defeats. 

Overall, this program is still on an upward trajectory under Schiano. The USC program is headed nowhere fast, and there are open questions about whether or not Riley is the right guy for the job after he’s gone just 11-11 across his last 22 games with the Trojans. That record sure looks like something you’d see at Rutgers under Schiano, doesn’t it? 

There’s not enough separating these two programs for me to do anything other than take the points with the two-touchdown underdog. 

Early Over/Under lean
Over 54.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis
I hit on USC’s defense being banged up, but the same could be said about Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights lost their best defensive player, Mohamed Traore, before the season even began, and perhaps that was a portent of what was to come. They’ve regressed badly, surrendering at least 6.9 yards per play in three of their four conference games. 

If you’re wondering why the defense looked so lost against UCLA, start with the injury report. Starting defensive ends Wesley Bailey and Aaron Lewis both missed the contest, while starting cornerbacks Eric Rogers and Robert Longerbeam played through injuries.

This is far from an ideal scheduling spot for Rutgers to show quick improvement on that side of the ball as they’re making a cross-country road trip on a short week. Moss leads a USC offense averaging a robust 6.2 yards per play, and the Trojans have put up over 400 yards of total offense in five of their seven games. 

On the flip side, USC has gone Over the total in four of its last six games. The defensive improvement we saw at the beginning of the year has been tested by several key injuries as starting cornerback Jacobe Covington also missed the game against the Terps. 

The Trojans have been bullied up front, allowing 967 rushing yards and 11 rushing scores. They were able to shut down Maryland’s ground game (56 yards on 24 attempts), but Rutgers offers a more physical approach spearheaded by running back Kyle Monangai, who has accumulated 845 rushing yards and 10 scores already this season. 

USC typically plays to the Over at home, going 5-2 O/U in its last seven games. It may surprise people to learn that Rutgers has also played toward the Over overall, going 8-5 O/U in its last 13 games.

Rutgers vs USC live odds

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