Rutgers vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Badger Up

It’s going to be an overwhelmingly red weekend at Camp Randall Stadium with Wisconsin welcoming Rutgers to town. The uniforms won’t be all that’s red either with the physicality both these run games and defenses bring to the field.

Luke Fickell seems to have the Badgers trending in the right direction after a bumpy start, and the college football odds agree with his squad 13-point favorites, but all of a sudden Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights playing like it’s the mid-2000s all over again. Wisconsin will have to continue to lean on their best player to ensure Rutgers isn’t a prick in their side.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Rutgers vs. Wisconsin on Saturday, October 7.

Rutgers vs Wisconsin best odds

Rutgers vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

Despite Schiano having the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on pace to win their most games since the last time he was running the program, they have a fatal flaw in that the Wisconsin Badgers is in prime position to take advantage of in this matchup.

While the Scarlet Knights sit an impressive 36th in EPA per play on offense and 24th in EPA per play on defense, both better than the Badgers, they’re just 60th in EPA per rush on defense.

Teams that are built to run the ball like Wisconsin give Rutgers defensive coordinator Joe Harasymiak’s unit issues. In their lone loss to Michigan this season, the Scarlet Knights allowed 201 rushing yards.

With Braelon Allen being the engine that’s kept the Badgers offense afloat this season, taking the Over on his 98.5 rushing yards line looks like the play.

There was an adjustment period with new Wisconsin offensive coordinator Phil Longo bringing his variation of the air raid to Madison, but he seems to have figured it out with Allen.

While the Badgers star was splitting carries earlier in the season with fellow future NFL back Chez Mellusi, Mellusi was injured against Purdue. That doesn’t mean Wisconsin will move away from the run though and should mean an even bigger role for Allen. 

“I don't think it changes who we are and what we do,” Fickell said. “And I even told Braelon the same thing: It doesn't change. I think it puts a little bit more on Braelon's plate, not just carrying the football, but the leader that Chez was.”

Luckily for Wisconsin, Allen has thrived when he has a lot on his plate. This season he’s topped 100 yards in both games, including against the Boilermakers, where he’s had at least 16 carries. And he’s made the most of his carries this year, averaging 7.1 per carry, which is tied for eighth best in the country among runners with at least 50 carries.

With 371 yards on the ground through four games, Allen is averaging a few yards short of 99 this season (92.75), but he had only one more carry (52) than Mellusi (51). Jackson Acker is now slotted as his backup and has just 14 carries in three years.

This sets Allen up to see at least a few more touches a game and at 7.1 yards per carry, he should be sailing by the 98.5-yard mark. Just look at the big bruiser’s career, in three seasons at Wisconsin, he’s averaged 16.7 carries for 102.9 yards and one touchdown per game.

In his 25 games as a starter, he’s crossed the 100-yard mark in 17 of them and has only finished under 100 yards four times in games where he’s had at least 16 carries.

My best bet: Braelon Allen Over 98.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Rutgers vs Wisconsin same-game parlay

Braelong Allen Over 98.5 rushing yards

Under 44.5

Gavin Wimsatt Over 15.5 rushing yards

+600 at bet365

These are two teams built similarly, they want to run the ball and play tough defense. Once Longo figured out quarterback Tanner Mordecai wasn’t going to light it up through the air, the Badgers got back to their roots of pounding it down team’s throats.

It’s about ball control and bleeding that clock for Rutgers, which is why the Under looks good at 44.5. The Scarlet Knights are allowing just 12.8 points per game, 12th best in college football, and Wisconsin is giving up only 19.8 per game.

A key to Rutgers 4-1 start has been the rushing attack and more specifically the mobility of quarterback Gavin Wimsatt, a former blue-chip recruit. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca has used his legs to help open things up for running back Kyle Monangai this season and it's paid dividends.

Wimsatt has gone over 15.5 rushing yards in four of five games this season and all four against FBS opponents, including against Michigan. Meanwhile, the Badgers defense has allowed an average of 48.5 rushing yards against starting Power Five quarterbacks.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rutgers vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis

Most books opened with Wisconsin as anywhere from 12.5 to 13.5-point favorites and haven’t shifted much. The Badgers are -13 to -13.5 pretty much everywhere.

This season Wisconsin is 2-2 against the spread, but have covered in their last two games against Georgia Southern and Purdue: they’ve been the favorite in every game so far this season.

As for Rutgers, they’re one of six programs in the country to remain unbeaten against the spread at 4-0-1. They’ve covered in all four games they’ve been the favorite in and pushed as a 24-point dog against Michigan.

The game total opened between 46.5 and 47 and has slowly dropped down to between 44 and 44.5 at most books.

The Badgers are 2-2 betting the Over this season, hitting it against both Buffalo and Purdue. Rutgers is 2-3 when betting the Over, hitting it against Wagner and Virginia Tech; they’ve failed to hit the Over in three of four games where the total was 44.5 or lower.

Rutgers vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

Rutgers has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Rutgers vs Wisconsin.

Rutgers vs Wisconsin game info

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Rutgers vs Wisconsin weather

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