The San Diego State Aztecs earned a 28-10 victory over the New Mexico State Aggies last week, but they now have to face the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.
The Wildcats were right there in a loss to the BYU Cougars last week, but it’ll be much harder for them to ultimately put one in the win column. Will Jedd Fisch’s team get it done? You’ll have to keep reading our San Diego State vs. Arizona picks and predictions for Saturday, September 11.
San Diego State vs Arizona odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
While a majority of bettors seem to be backing San Diego State in this one, the line has gone from Arizona -1.0 to Arizona -2.0 — and it’s even as high as -2.5 on some books. As for the total, it opened at 48.0 but has since gone down to 46.5 at most places.
Be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets, and also view the full line movement for this game.
San Diego State vs Arizona picks
Picks made on 9/10/2021 at 1:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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San Diego State vs Arizona game info
• Location: Arizona Stadium, Tuscon, AZ
• Date: Saturday, September 11, 2021
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: PAC12 Network
San Diego State vs Arizona betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
San Diego State: No injuries to report.
Arizona: OL Jordan Morgan (questionable), WR Jamarye Joiner (questionable), LB Jabar Triplett (questionable)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in San Diego State’s last five September games. Find more NCAA betting trends for San Diego State vs. Arizona.
San Diego State vs Arizona predictions
Arizona -2.0 (-110)
The Aztecs are coming off an 18-point win over the Aggies last week, but they were 31.5-point favorites in that game. San Diego State didn’t play as well as people expected them to, and the jump in competition to facing a Pac-12 program is going to be a big one — even if Arizona hasn’t exactly been much of a force in recent seasons.
While Arizona is coming off a loss to BYU, the team showed a lot of heart in that game. Whereas previous iterations of the Wildcats would have rolled over after the Cougars took a 21-3 lead, Fisch’s team rose to the occasion and had a real chance to win the game. The Wildcats were a little inefficient in red-zone situations, but they’ll clean that up and be better against teams that don’t have as much talent as the Cougars do in their linebacking corps.
Overall, the play of quarterback Gunner Cruz was extremely encouraging for Arizona last game. The freshman threw for 336 yards with a touchdown, but he did throw a bad interception on an unnecessary deep shot. He’ll learn from that mistake and improve moving forward, but Arizona has to be happy that somebody was able to separate and take the starting job. This offense moved the ball with relative ease against BYU, and it should be able to put together some good drives against San Diego State. The running game should especially be a strength for the Wildcats this year, as they have a good offensive line and a nice stable of backs.
Defensively, the Wildcats made a big improvement from what we saw a year ago. BYU’s Jaren Hall is an impressive talent at the position, but Arizona was able to keep him in check. The team should have an easier time with Jordon Brookshire, who was just 6 for 19 with 76 yards, no touchdowns and an interception last week.
Under 47.0 (-110)
Last week, the Aztecs played a game in which the two teams combined to score only 38 points, despite the total being 50.5. Meanwhile, the Wildcats and Cougars scored only 40 points with a total of 53.5. There’s no reason to believe that this game can’t go Under this number, even if it is on the lower side.
San Diego State has always been a program that takes itself seriously on the defensive side of the ball, and the Aztecs were ranked 33rd in the nation in scoring defense last year. They were 36th in the country in rushing yards per game allowed, which means they’ll be somewhat ready to prevent the Wildcats from steamrolling them on the ground.
At the same time, the Wildcats showed a lot of fight on defense against the Cougars last week. This isn’t the same team that was blown out regularly a year ago. Fisch is changing the culture in Tucson, and this team isn’t likely to let the Aztecs go nuts on offense — especially considering that San Diego State’s quarterback situation is nowhere near as good as BYU’s.
The Under seems like the right play in this game. It’s hit in five of San Diego State’s last six games against Pac-12 opponents.
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