San Diego State rolls into New Mexico tonight, having turned its season around, winning its last two games and getting above .500.
It faces a Lobos team that has lost seven straight, the third-longest losing streak in the country. New Mexico has not won a game in the Mountain West Conference in six tries.
Can the Lobos break their streak, or will the Aztecs hand New Mexico its eighth defeat in a row? Continue reading for free college football picks for San Diego State vs. New Mexico on November 18.
San Diego State vs New Mexico best odds
San Diego State vs New Mexico picks and predictions
San Diego State was expected to challenge for the Mountain West Conference Title, but instead spent the first part of the season losing three of its first five games. The Aztecs have righted the ship somewhat, winning four of their last five, but only one of those teams they defeated (San Jose State) has a winning record.
Now they travel to Albuquerque to face one of the worst teams in the conference on Friday. New Mexico has won two games all year, has no wins in the conference, and is on a seven-game losing streak.
It’s not surprising that this game moved from its opening line of Aztecs -11.5 to -14.5. San Diego State should win this game, but there are suspicions about whether they can cover the larger-than-two-touchdown spread.
Consider that the Aztecs are 4-6 against the spread this year. They have been double-digit favorites in two other games this season and failed to cover both times.
One of those games is particularly concerning. They hosted 2-9 Hawaii and were laying 24 points. They were nearly upset, escaping with a 16-14 victory.
That is what I believe will happen with New Mexico. SDSU has this tendency to play to the level of its competition. For some reason, the Aztecs can’t seem to get out of their own way.
Offensively, there are question marks. SDSU ranks ninth in the Mountain West in total yards, averaging 321.5 per game. It's also ninth in passing but is fourth in rushing.
That is where the Aztecs will probably attack New Mexico. The Lobos are eighth in defending the run, allowing an average of 163.9 yards per game. New Mexico is fourth in pass defense, allowing an average of 192.1 yards.
The Lobos will have to control the clock if they want any chance of pulling off the upset, but it is doubtful that will happen. They are eighth in rushing in the conference and the Aztecs have the third-best rushing defense.
New Mexico will, however, be able to keep within two touchdowns. SDSU will get a bit complacent and the Lobos might even be in this game late in the fourth quarter.
My best bet: New Mexico +14.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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San Diego State vs New Mexico spread analysis
The key to this game is New Mexico has to control the clock to stay close. It's not a team that can come back from a large deficit. The Lobos rank 131st in total offense at just 239.5 yards a game.
They have trouble scoring, ranking 129th in points and averaging just 14.7 a game. New Mexico let Air Force get out to a big lead and couldn’t recover with the only points coming on a third-quarter field goal.
Quarterback has been an issue all year. Coach Danny Gonzales replaced senior Miles Kendrick with sophomore Justin Holaday three games ago, but neither has been very effective.
The run game is where New Mexico is going to have to shine if it wants to keep it close. It ranks 88th in the country on the ground and running back Nathaniel Jones leads the team in rushing with 466 yards on 108 carries and two touchdowns.
If the Lobos can run against the Aztecs, they should be able to keep this close enough to cash.
San Diego State vs New Mexico Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 39.5 points and was immediately bet down to 37.5.
Neither team has the propensity to put a lot of points on the board. The Lobos are 129th in the country in scoring, averaging 14.7 points a game, and have now 10 or fewer points in four consecutive games.
San Diego State isn't far ahead. The Aztecs rank 104th in points per game, averaging 21.9, and have scored under 20 in five of eight.
The Nevada game is a good comparison for New Mexico. SDSU went to Reno with the total set at 36 and missed the Over by seven points.
The trends are also on the Under. For the Lobos, the Under has hit in six of their last eight against a team with a winning record and is 8-3 on the Under following an ATS loss.
For the Aztecs, the Under is 4-1 in their last five after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game.
The Under is also 6-2 in the last eight contests between the two teams.
San Diego State vs New Mexico betting trend to know
San Diego State is 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in New Mexico. Find more NCAA betting trends for San Diego State vs. New Mexico.
San Diego State vs New Mexico game info
| Location: | University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM |
| Date: | Friday, November 18, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
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