The Utah Utes have revenge on their mind as the San Diego State Aztecs visit Rice-Eccles Stadium.
This time a year ago, the Aztecs pulled off a 33-31 upset that promoted the Utes to make a change at quarterback. That quarterback, Cam Rising, ended up being pretty good — he led the Utes to a 9-2 finish to the season including a Pac-12 Championship.
Both teams have already slipped once this season — but who will falter a second time?
Check out our college football betting picks and predictions for San Diego State and Utah on Saturday, September 17 to find out.
San Diego State vs Utah best odds
San Diego State vs Utah picks and predictions
Utah stumbled in the opener against Florida in a nationally televised game and one of the bigger matchups of Week 1. That may have left a lasting impression on many that this team can’t compete at the highest level. I’d say that’s ridiculous.
The Utes did struggle to contain quarterback Anthony Richardson, so the defense has some work to do as the season goes on. The offense picked things up as the game went on, gaining over 300 yards of offense in the second half — in a hostile environment, in the swamp, to begin the season. Public perception would be a bit different if quarterback Cam Rising didn’t throw a last-second interception in the end zone as the team was driving for a potential victory.
This team will be fine and enough pieces are there from a team that won a Pac-12 Championship a year ago after embarrassing Oregon twice and falling just short in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State.
Overall, 14 starters return from a year ago including Rising and two stars at tight end in Brant Kuithe (nine receptions 105 yards and a touchdown in the opener) and Dalton Kincaid (seven receptions for 107 yards and two TDs a week ago).
Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig loves to utilize tight ends in his scheme, and he now has two future NFL players at his disposal along with a mobile quarterback and power running game that makes this offense nearly impossible to keep in check. It’s no mistake that this offense averaged 36.1 points per game a year ago, and they could be even better in 2022.
San Diego State already played a Pac-12 team once this season and it did not go well, losing 38-20 at home to Arizona despite being nearly a touchdown favorite. The offense looks far from lethal under new quarterback Braxton Burmeister, gaining just 232 total yards on 4.0 yards per play against the Wildcats.
The defense also took a noticeable step back from a year ago, when they allowed only 19.8 points per game. The Wildcats racked up 461 yards of total offense in Week 1 and lowly Idaho State even managed 338 total yards in Week 2.
Utah is a much better team than Arizona on both sides of the ball — it’s night and day. Kyle Whittingham and the Utes will have revenge on their minds after falling to the Aztecs a year ago.
They’re playing at Rice-Eccles, which is a big positive considering they’re 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games. I don’t think the Aztecs have the offense to keep up in this one.
My best bet: Utah -21 (-110 at BetMGM)
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San Diego State vs Utah betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Utah doesn’t gain as much media attention as some other powerhouse football programs, but you’d still be remiss if you didn’t think this is one of the better teams in the nation.
Kyle Whittingham churned out winning team after winning team, but the Utes struggled to break through and make any real noise. Fresh off the team’s first-ever Pac-12 Championship, this team now realizes that its goals are achievable. This is a very dangerous and well-coached team.
After falling to Florida, the Utes put a 73-7 beat down on Southern Utah. They did whatever they wanted in that game, racking up 598 yards of total offense while limiting the Thunderbirds to just 85 total yards. The Utes gained 8.4 yards per play while the Thunderbirds had a measly 1.9. It was a display of utter dominance and, sure, it was an FCS team — but that’s exactly what you want to see after a letdown in the opener.
The Aztecs were great a year ago, finishing 12-2, but it’s evident they’ve taken a step back on both sides of the ball early this season. Cameron Thomas and his 20.5 tackles for a loss aren’t there from a season ago, and neither is bell-cow running back Greg Bell.
This team looks like it’s still searching for its strengths on both sides of the ball, and that’s a dangerous situation to be in against a team as good as Utah.
Over/Under analysis
The Aztecs have some soul searching to do offensively. The run game hit some explosive plays last week against a terrible Idaho State team that won just one game at the FCS level a year ago, but starting running back Chance Bell left the game in the second quarter and his status is uncertain for this matchup. The passing attack has gained just 170 yards through two games and Burmeister has completed just 55.6% of his passes for a minuscule 4.4 yards per attempt.
The Aztecs are managing just a 38% success rate offensively. If Utah can force them into passing situations, which is highly probable considering they should hold the advantage up front, then Burmeister & Co. are in trouble. San Diego State has just a 22% success rate on passing downs this season.
Utah has gone 4-0 to the Over in its last four non-conference games and has also cashed four straight Overs against the Mountain West. How will they follow up such a prolific offensive performance against Southern Utah? The Over is 6-0 in the Utes’ last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and is 11-2 in their last 13 when rushing for more than 200 yards in their previous game.
Utah should be able to find plenty of points at home against a San Diego State defense that is typically solid but allowed 461 total yards to Arizona. It’s a matter of whether or not the Aztecs can contribute enough to this total.
San Diego State vs Utah game info
• Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
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San Diego State vs Utah betting trend to know
Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for San Diego State vs. Utah.
