Thursday night brings a matchup between two struggling Mountain West teams in the San Jose State Spartans and the UNLV Rebels.
Fresh off a conference championship, the Spartans have struggled out of the gate in 2021 to a 3-4 record. They’ll look to get back to .500 as they hit the road to Vegas to face the Rebels, who are still seeking its first win under coach Marcus Arroyo.
Will the Spartans get back on track in conference play, or will the Rebels play spoiler at home?
Read our picks and predictions for the San Jose State Spartans vs. the UNLV Rebels on Thursday, October 21 to find the answer.
San Jose State vs UNLV odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
UNLV opened as +4.5 underdogs. That line has been bet up to +5 across most books at the time of this writing. Be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets, and also view the full line movement for this game.
San Jose State vs UNLV picks
Picks made on 10/19/2021 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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San Jose State vs UNLV game info
• Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Thursday, October 21, 2021
• Time: 11:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBSSN
San Jose State vs UNLV betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
San Jose State: Nick Starkel QB (Questionable)
UNLV: Doug Brumfield QB (Questionable), Cameron Friel QB (Questionable), Jayvaun Wilson RB (Questionable), Giovanni Fauolo TE (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Spartans are 7-2-1 in the last 10 matchups between these two schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for San Jose State vs. UNLV.
San Jose State vs UNLV predictions
San Jose State -5 (-110)
The Spartans have gotten off to a disappointing start in 2021 — there’s no other way to put it. For a program that was surging under coach Brent Brennan and was only one year removed from a 7-1 conference championship season, a 3-4 start is not up to expectations.
That being said, what has UNLV done to inspire confidence in this matchup. Marcus Arroyo still has yet to notch his first win with the program despite this being his second season — he’s 0-12 overall with the Rebels.
If San Jose State needs a get-right spot, this would appear to be it. The struggling offense averaging only 335.1 yards per game (111th) gets a soft matchup against a poor UNLV defense allowing 452 yards per game (116th).
The Spartans have been solid yet again defensively this year, holding teams to 23.1 points per game. Last week, the front seven impressively held a San Diego State rushing attack to a season-low 70 yards on 1.9 yards per carry in a narrow overtime loss. The Aztecs had accumulated over 200 rushing yards and multiple scores on the ground in every game up until that point, but the Spartans were able to shut them down.
That defensive mindset should play well here against a UNLV team that is hurting at quarterback. Presumptive starter Doug Brumfield has missed the last two games with a back injury, and fill-in Cameron Friel left last week’s contest against Utah State with an injury in the fourth quarter. The status of both remains in doubt.
If the Rebels opt to go with a ground-heavy approach, the Spartans will be ready. They effectively shut down a better rushing attack one week ago.
While the Spartans aren’t at the top of the conference as they were presumed to be at the start of the year, this is a program searching for their second straight bowl appearance for the first time since 1986. They won’t let UNLV get in the way of that.
Under 46.5 (-110)
Simply put, this is likely to be a matchup between two backup quarterbacks and two defensive-minded teams.
The Spartans have scored more than 14 points only once since starter Nick Starkel went down to injury four games ago, and that occurred against a New Mexico State team ranked even lower than UNLV in most metrics. Nick Nash, the presumed starter (Brennan hasn’t issued a definitive update on Starkel), was playing wide receiver for this team just a few weeks ago.
As mentioned earlier, it’s unclear who will be under center for the Rebels. They’ll likely turn to either their third or fourth option at the position with the first two choices banged up and coming off a short week of preparation for this contest.
UNLV should find difficulty moving the ball against a San Jose State defense allowing only 351 yards per game.
The real metric to look at here is pace. San Jose State ranks 124th in plays per game, while UNLV is even lower at 128th. Both are playing at a snail's pace and are snapping the ball less than 62 times per game.
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