Sports betting trends should generally be taken with a grain of salt. But every now and then one comes along that can’t be ignored — and that includes the greatest trend in all of sport: Service Academy Unders.
In the past, when people talked about the college football programs for the Army Black Knights, the Navy Midshipmen, and the Air Force Falcons, it was usually only about Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy odds. But not anymore.
These days, all college football bettors want to talk about when these teams meet is the total. That’s because the Under has been cashing more than 83% of the time for nearly two decades. Insane, right?
Unfortunately, the secret is out and oddsmakers have adjusted in recent years, dramatically lowering these numbers... but are those adjustments enough to buck the trend? And why have the Unders cashed at such a high rate over the years?
Join me as I explore the college football odds and do a deep dive to discover why Service Academy Unders has been the trend of trends.
An enduring college football trend
For the uninitiated: The Under is 44-9-1 when service academies meet, dating back to the 2006-07 college football season (as far back as our data at Covers goes). That’s an 83% cash rate. Which, in the betting world, is basically unheard of.
Maybe more impressively, we have only seen two Overs in the last 17 matchups — an 88.2% success rate.
Examining Service Academy totals
For years, Service Academy games have been going Under and no one seemed to notice; not even oddsmakers. Between 2006 and 2017, the Under went 29-8 with an average of 42.1 points scored per game. Despite this, the total was an average of 51... and even in 2017, two of the three games that season saw totals in the mid-50s.
It wasn’t until 2018 when we began to see a real shift in the numbers. We saw the average total drop from 51 to 42.3 from 2018 to 2020 — but even with that adjustment, the Under was 8-1 in that three-season stretch, thanks to the combined scoring dropping to 34 ppg.
But the most dramatic shift has been within the last few seasons, which has coincidentally coincided with sports betting entering the mainstream media, as the cat is out of the bag.
We’ve had nine Service Academy games since the start of the 2021 season, with the average total dropping to 35.4 over that stretch.
But guess what? The scoring has dropped even further: The Under is still 7-1-1 in those games with a combined scoring average of 27.6 ppg. The only Over in that span was 2022’s Army-Navy game, which was tied at 10 at the end of regulation before seeing 17 points scored in overtime.
The pageantry, excitement, and all-out battle on the gridiron is what America's Game is all about.
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This trend, however, could start swinging the other way soon: Last season’s Navy-Air Force game closed with a total of 34.5 while the Army-Air Force game closed at 32.5, and Army-Navy hit a rock-bottom 28.
This season Navy-Air Force opens the Service Academy matchups with the total hitting the board at 36.5 and has already been bet down to 34.5.
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Navy vs Air Force history and trends
| Year | Navy-Air Force O/U | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 34.5 | AF 17-6: Under (23) |
| 2022 | 38 | AF 13-10: Under (23) |
| 2021 | 40 | AF 23-3: Under (26) |
| 2020 | 47.5 | AF 40-7: Under (47) |
| 2019 | 46.5 | Navy 34-25: Over (59) |
| 2018 | 47 | AF 35-7: Under (42) |
| 2017 | 53.5 | Navy 48-45: Over (93) |
| 2016 | 50.5 | AF 28-14: Under (42) |
| 2015 | 49.5 | Navy 33-11: Under (44) |
| 2014 | 56.5 | AF 30-21: Under (51) |
| 2013 | 56 | Navy 28-10: Under (38) |
| 2012 | 54.5 | Navy 28-21: Under (49) |
| 2011 | 52.5 | AF 35-34: Over (69) |
| 2010 | 50.5 | AF 14-6: Under (20) |
| 2009 | 48.5 | Navy 13-6: Under (19) |
| 2008 | 51.5 | Navy 33-27: Over (60) |
| 2007 | 56 | Navy 31-20: Under (51) |
| 2006 | 48.5 | Navy 24-17: Under (41) |
This matchup has been the highest scoring of these three games, seeing an average of 44.3 points scored over the last 18 meetings between the Midshipmen and the Falcons. And the Under is still 14-4 in those matchups and has gone below the total in four straight games.
Between 2006 and 2020, the lowest total this matchup saw was 47. But the last three seasons the O/Us have been 40, 38, 34.5. The combined final points were 26, 23, and 23 in those three games.
Army vs Air Force history and trends
| Year | Army-Air Force O/U | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 32.5 | Army 23-3: Under (26) |
| 2022 | 40 | AF 13-7: Under (20) |
| 2021 | 38 | Army 21-14: Under (35 OT) |
| 2020 | 37.5 | Army 10-7: Under (17) |
| 2019 | 44.5 | AF 17-13: Under (30) |
| 2018 | 42 | Army 17-14: Under (31) |
| 2017 | 54.5 | Army 21-0: Under (21) |
| 2016 | 46.5 | Army 31-12: Under (43) |
| 2015 | 50.5 | AF 20-3: Under (23) |
| 2014 | 54 | AF 23-6: Under (29) |
| 2013 | 54.5 | AF 42-28: Over (70) |
| 2012 | 62.5 | Army 41-21: Under (62) |
| 2011 | 58 | AF 24-14: Under (38) |
| 2010 | 48.5 | AF 42-22: Over (64) |
| 2009 | 37.5 | AF 35-7: Over (42) |
| 2008 | 40.5 | AF 16-7: Under (23) |
| 2007 | 45 | AF 30-10: Under (40) |
| 2006 | 48 | AF 43-7: Over (50) |
Maybe somewhat surprisingly, this is the matchup with the longest Under streak going, falling below the total in 10 consecutive matchups between the Black Knights and Falcons.
Despite Air Force generally being the superior team over the last decade, the team just hasn’t been able to score in this matchup. Eight of the last 10 meetings have seen 31 points or fewer scored. One of the two that didn’t went to overtime.
Army vs Navy history and trends
| Year | Army-Navy Force O/U | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 28 | Army 17-11: Push (28) |
| 2022 | 32 | Army 20-17: Over (37 OT) |
| 2021 | 35.5 | Navy 17-13: Under (30) |
| 2020 | 36 | Army 15-0: Under (15) |
| 2019 | 41.5 | Navy 31-7: Under (38) |
| 2018 | 38.5 | Army 17-10: Under (27) |
| 2017 | 44.5 | Army 14-13: Under (27) |
| 2016 | 46.5 | Army 21-17: Under (38) |
| 2015 | 50 | Navy 21-17: Under (38) |
| 2014 | 55.5 | Navy 17-10: Under (27) |
| 2013 | 49.5 | Navy 34-7: Under (41) |
| 2012 | 55.5 | Navy 17-13: Under (30) |
| 2011 | 55 | Navy 27-21: Under (48) |
| 2010 | 52.5 | Navy 31-17: Under (48) |
| 2009 | 41 | Navy 17-3: Under (20) |
| 2008 | 43 | Navy 34-0: Under (34) |
| 2007 | 64.5 | Navy 38-3: Under (41) |
| 2006 | 50 | Navy 26-14: Under (40) |
The matchup that started it all. The classic Army-Navy meeting at the end of the college football season went Under in 16 consecutive meetings between 2006 and 2021, before finally hitting an Over in 2022. But to be fair, that game was tied at 10 before seeing 17 points scored in overtime.
The Black Knights and Midshipmen were the first to start seeing these adjusted totals, getting a 38.5 back in 2018. And these two storied Service Academies have played to 30 points or fewer in regulation in five of the last six meetings. Last season's closing total of 28 was the lowest on record for this matchup.
Why Service Academy games keep on hitting the Under
So, the question is why are these service academies hitting so many Unders?
Well, it all starts with offense. All three Service Academies run the Triple Option offense, or at least a variation of it. These offenses involve very little passing. In 2023 Air Force, Navy, and Army ranked No. 1, 2, and 3 in run play percentage and all rank in the Top 3 to start 2024. The Black Knights run the ball nearly 90% of the time. That means the clock is constantly moving in these matchups.
That also means that since these team run these offenses every day in practice there is no one better equipped to slow them down. Generally, these teams are regarded as good tackling teams as well. That equates to a lot of 3-4 yard runs.
Next, these teams usually have good coaching continuity and are unable to attack the transfer portal like other programs, which instills the system amongst the players.
And while you may not think about it for Triple Option teams, the quarterback position is supremely important. The QB’s ability to make the right read, or the proper pitch in an option offense is paramount. Look at Air Force over the last few years. The Falcons have had great QB play and have been the class of the trio recently. When was Navy great? When Malcom Perry was running the show and Blake Horvath could be that guy this season.
Finally, the Under trend got a bit of a reprieve this year with a new rule change in college football. The clock no longer stops after a first down outside of the final two minutes of each half. So, that means the clock will be moving even faster.
Expect more low-scoring games
The Overs are going to start coming back. And probably sooner rather than later with the way these totals are headed. But I just think oddsmakers simply cannot adjust these numbers enough to account for the style of play in these games. Otherwise, their exposure would be too great on one side. Even if Overs start to hit, low-scoring games will still be the norm in these matchups.
So, while I’m not telling you to run out and bet the farm on Service Academy Unders anymore, I am saying you still think hard about jumping on the other side.
