Early SMU vs Penn State Predictions, Picks, and Odds

Two teams that came up short in their conference title games will face off in the opening round of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff as the SMU Mustangs visit the Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday.

I’m expecting the Mustangs to keep it close in a game with a lot of points, as I’ll explain below in my SMU vs. Penn State predictions.

Keep reading to see how I think bettors should approach this game early in the week in my college football picks for Saturday, December 21.

SMU vs Penn State predictions

Early spread lean
SMU +8.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

My analysis
The SMU Mustangs had to sweat the College Football Playoff selection show after losing 34-31 to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game but managed to make the bracket as the No. 11 seed. Falling that low left the Mustangs as a road team in the first round, taking on the Penn State Nittany Lions, which lost 45-37 to Oregon in the Big Ten title game.

Both teams come into the game with 11-2 records, though their paths here were very different. The Nittany Lions rank 30th in strength of schedule and fifth overall in strength of record, while SMU comes in at 57th and 15th, respectively. That’s partially due to the fact Penn State’s conference schedule was stronger but also because its losses came against two of the top teams in the country — Oregon and Ohio State. 

Penn State played both of those teams close, losing by one score in each case. However, the Nittany Lions have struggled at times to put away teams that are objectively far weaker. Penn State won by just one point at Minnesota, beat USC by three, and only beat Bowling Green by a touchdown at home earlier in the year. 

Whatever you might think of SMU’s schedule or whether it should be in this tournament, the Mustangs are also far superior to any of those teams. They combine one of the most explosive offenses in the country with a solid defense that’s allowing just 20.8 ppg. Each of their losses this year came by just three points.

I’ll talk more about this below, but quarterback Kevin Jennings, running back Brashard Smith, and the rest of the SMU offense will score points. And while the Nittany Lions may be able to keep up and strike back often enough to win, covering a spread of over a touchdown will be a challenge. I’m leaning towards SMU to cover, though I’d be concerned if the line drops to -7 or lower.

Early Over/Under lean
Over 54.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

My analysis
It would be a mistake to discount the defenses in this game, as both sides have capable units that frequently contain opponents and step up in big moments, but the two offenses are even better, and they’ve been showing up big in recent weeks.

Penn State has scored 35+ points in four of its last five games. The Nittany Lions have hit the Over four times in a row, reversing an early-season trend when the offense looked merely average most of the time. For the year, Penn State is averaging 6.8 yards per play, ranking it among the Top 10 offenses in the country.

If anything, SMU has been even better offensively, at least in terms of raw numbers. The Mustangs have been averaging 38.5 points per game this year and could potentially have gone for even more, as they’ve been putting up 21.7 ppg in the first half of games. They’ve scored 28+ points in each of their last nine games and have only been held below that number once this season.

Penn State has the best defense SMU will have faced yet this season. Still, we’ve seen teams like USC and Minnesota find some offensive success, and SMU might be a closer comp — offensively, at least — for Oregon, which put up 45 against Penn State in the Big Ten title game. 

Penn State’s defense may well do just enough to get the win for the Nittany Lions, but I expect SMU to get their 28 points or so. Penn State just might go even higher, as it's more than capable of doing. That has me leaning towards the Over, as I think this game could easily reach the 60-point mark.

SMU vs Penn State live odds

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