The college football bowl game schedule for Wednesday starts off with two matchups at iconic baseball stadiums, beginning with the Fenway Bowl between the SMU Mustangs and Virginia Cavaliers.
This will be an emotional game for Virginia, as it’ll be the last one in which Bronco Mendenhall will be running the show. Mendenhall is stepping away from the program, and the Cavaliers have hired former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott as the team’s new head coach.
Will the Cavaliers earn a victory over the Mustangs and send Mendenhall off the right way? Keep reading our college football betting picks and predictions for Virginia vs. SMU to find out.
Editor's Note: This game was canceled due to health and safety protocols within the Virginia program.
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SMU vs Virginia odds
Virginia was a 1.5-point underdog at the open of this bowl game, but the Cavaliers are now laying either or 2 or 2.5. And some of the odds suggest it could hit 3 at some point. The total in this one opened high, with the number being 71.5. It has mostly stayed still but can be found at 71, too.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
SMU vs Virginia predictions
Predictions made on 12/21/2021 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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SMU vs Virginia game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Wednesday, December 29, 2021
• Time: 11:00 a.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
SMU vs Virginia betting preview
Key injuries
SMU: Danny Gray WR (Out), Reggie Roberson Jr. WR (Out), Tre Siggers RB (Questionable), TJ McDaniel RB (Questionable), Alan Ali C (Out).
Virginia: De’Vante Cross S (Out), Josh Hayes CB (Out), Nathaniel Beal III WR (Out), Lavel Davis WR (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
SMU is 5-1 against the spread in its last five non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for SMU vs. Virginia.
SMU vs Virginia picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Like Virginia, SMU is also losing its head coach, with Sonny Dykes now leading the TCU Horned Frogs. In Dykes’ place will be defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt, with new head coach Rhett Lashlee — the former SMU offensive coordinator — not taking over just yet.
With Leavitt in charge, not much will change for a defense that was solid enough for most of this season. The Mustangs averaged 38.4 points per game this year, meaning that they just needed their defense to give them a chance to outscore opponents on a weekly basis. Leavitt’s unit did just that, with defensive linemen Elijah Chatman and DeVere Levelston standing out along the line. Plus, Nelson Paul and Turner Coxe are both capable of getting to the passer. Paul doesn’t play enough, but he always flashes when he does. Overall, this group should make enough plays to give SMU a shot.
Offensively, Mustangs quarterback Tanner Mordecai was one of college football's best passers this season. The Oklahoma transfer threw for 3,628 yards with 39 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions. He now gets to face a Virginia defense allowing 42.2 points per game over its last five contests. The Cavaliers have given up at least 300 passing yards in three of their last five games, and it’s just hard to envision them finding ways to get the Mustangs off the field here. SMU might be missing some key wideouts, but somebody will step up and make plays on the football. These receivers should be running free all day.
Prediction: SMU +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
SMU should ultimately come away with a victory, but it’s not going to come without some defensive miscues. This should be one of the most exciting games of the bowl season from a scoring perspective, with both teams capable of putting up massive numbers. SMU’s 38.4 points per game this season was the 11th-best mark in college football, and Virginia’s 34.6 put them at 22nd in the nation.
Both feature excellent quarterback play, so there will be a ton of big throws. Also, it’s not like either of these defenses is particularly trustworthy, making this a game that Over bettors are going to enjoy. Not knowing which team is going to come up with a big defensive stop is a great feeling when you bank on the Over.
Prediction: Over 71 (-110)
Best bet
These teams combined to score an average of 73.0 points per game during the regular season, so this total isn’t exactly outrageous. Both offenses are insanely talented and have superb passing games. Both also happen to have very mediocre defenses, so they aren’t going to be able to get enough stops for Under bettors to cash in.
The Over is 4-2 in SMU’s last six games. The Over is also 11-5 in Virginia’s 16 games against teams with winning percentages between 60.0% and 75.0% under Mendenhall. On top of that, the Over is also 7-0 in SMU’s last seven games on grass fields. If that’s not enough, it’s also 7-1 in Virginia’s last eight neutral-site games.
Pick: Over 71 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our SMU vs. Virginia picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
