For the second time in history, the South Alabama Jaguars will square off with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers when the two meet on Wednesday night in the New Orleans Bowl.
The Jaguars are coming off a program-best 10-2 regular-season record and finished with a 7-1 conference record in the Sun Belt, while the 8-5 Hilltoppers turned it around in the second half of the season to become bowl eligible after a 3-3 start.
South Alabama is a 4.5-point favorite to get the school’s first-ever bowl win, but Western Kentucky has been hot down the stretch and has two bowl victories in three bowl game appearances since 2019.
Who will come out on top inside the Superdome on Wednesday? Below, we offer our best free college football picks and predictions for Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama.
South Alabama vs Western Kentucky best odds
South Alabama vs Western Kentucky picks and predictions
In Kane Wommack’s second season as head coach, South Alabama owns the fourth-best rushing defense in college football (90.2 yards per game) and the 14th-best scoring defense in the nation (20.5).
The Jaguars finished the regular season with a +9.9 average scoring margin and suffered two losses. One was a 32-31 heartbreaker at UCLA, and the other came as a 10-6 decision against conference foe Troy.
Following that setback to the Trojans — which cost the Jaguars a spot in the Sun Belt title game — South Alabama went on a five-win run to close out the season. It scored 32.2 points per game, while it allowed an average of 23 over the last four victories to Georgia Southern, Texas State, Southern Miss, and Old Dominion (none of which finished above .500).
Senior quarterback Carter Bradley — a transfer from Toledo — ended the season with 2,976 yards on 64.3% passing with 25 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions. Jalen Wayne (795 yards) and Caullin Lacy (756 yards) led the receiving game.
Junior La’Damian Webb spearheaded the Jaguars’ rushing attack, with 1,014 rushing yards, 13 rushing scores, and a 5.1 yards-per-carry average. His best outing of the season came against Georgia Southern, as he ran for 247 yards on 35 carries and reached paydirt four times.
Big time first down from La'Damian Webb ????#OurCity | #LEO pic.twitter.com/JyeB2e6JSd
— South Alabama Football ???? (@SouthAlabamaFB) November 12, 2022
Webb will be a key component in controlling the tempo against Western Kentucky, who surrendered 155.1 rushing yards per game and let Florida Atlantic average 4.8 cards per carry in a narrow 32-31 overtime win. WKU also allowed an average of six yards per attempt against Auburn in a 41-17 blowout loss down the stretch.
The Hilltoppers ranked 71st in FBS passing yards allowed (230) as well, so Bradley will be able to keep the Jaguars' offense balanced through the air. He’ll need to get yards in the passing game now that Western Kentucky quarterback Austin Reed has decided to stay in Bowling Green. The senior entered the transfer portal in early December and appeared destined for Louisville, but he has since changed his mind and will remain with the Hilltoppers.
Reed ranked second in the country in passing yards (4,247) and threw for the fourth most touchdowns (34) while leading the country’s second-best pass attack (344.3 yards per game) and 18th-best scoring offense (35.8).
The Jaguars previously opposed the sixth-best passing offense in the nation when playing Georgia Southern earlier in the season. They needed a late fourth-quarter touchdown to go up seven in a 38-31 victory, in which they permitted 10.7 yards per pass.
Expect a similar back-and-forth brawl with Western Kentucky, who averaged 45.3 points over its last three victories. The Hilltoppers can wear down the Jaguars’ defense with a high-octane attack loaded with plenty of weapons at receiver and keep the Jaguars from slowing down the clock in the run game through Webb.
With Reed back with Western Kentucky, this offense will fly high and give South Alabama's defense one of its biggest challenges of the season.
My best bet: Over 55.5 (-110 at Betway)
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South Alabama vs Western Kentucky spread analysis
The line opened between South Alabama from -5 all the way to -7.5 at most sportsbooks and settled at 4.5 for the Jaguars by Friday.
The Jaguars were 7-5 against the spread in the regular season, and the Hilltoppers finished 8-5 ATS, but both teams have failed to cover in their last two.
However, Western Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning record and 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall. Meanwhile, South Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games but 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
South Alabama won its last four matchups by a margin of 9.5 points, but Western Kentucky blew out Charlotte 59-7 and spanked Rice 45-10 in two of its three most recent victories.
Time of possession will also be a huge factor here, as the Hilltoppers’ ability to force turnovers. WKU is tied for third in the country in takeaways per game (2.2) and tied for fifth in fumble recoveries, but South Alabama protected the ball fairly well, losing just four fumbles while throwing 10 interceptions.
The Jaguars also ranked 17th in the country in an average time of possession (32:10) and allowed opponents an average time of possession of 27:22 (14th-best in the country). The goal for South Alabama is to slow down the tempo with Webb, but the Jaguars may have no choice but to play catchup with Reed if he can wear down South Alabama’s secondary.
If this goes to a shootout, Western Kentucky will have the advantage. If South Alabama can stay low to the ground against the Hilltoppers’ middling run defense, the Jaguars will walk away with a sizable win and celebrate the school’s first-ever bowl victory.
South Alabama vs Western Kentucky Over/Under analysis
The total settled at 56 by Friday after opening around 59 at a majority of books.
The Over is 3-0-1 in South Alabama’s last four games overall and 5-1 in the Jaguars’ last six non-conference games, but the Under is 7-2 in their last nine versus a team with a winning record. The Over has also gone 1-6-1 in Western Kentucky’s last eight games overall but is 9-2 in the Hilltoppers’ last 11 non-conference games, while it’s 5-2 in their last seven bowl games.
With Reed back in the lineup, the outlook of this game has shifted, and the Hilltoppers can focus on what they do best — beating defenses through the air. They will attempt to tire the Jaguars' defense with their high-octane pass attack and make Bradley go toe-to-toe with Reed, giving Western Kentucky a chance to create a few turnovers.
The Hilltoppers’ last two games went Over the total, and all but one of South Alabama’s last four saw the Over hit — the exception being a push in its 27-20 win over Old Dominion.
Anticipate a thriller in the Superdome, as the Jaguars get their biggest defensive test of the season while the Hilltoppers go for their third bowl win since Tyson Helton took over as head coach in 2019.
In-play microbetting trends for South Alabama vs Western Kentucky
The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):
Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:
South Alabama
Offensive score Yes: 10/24 (41.7%)
Offensive score No: 14/24 (58.3%)
Punts: 11/24 (45.8%)
TDs: 7/24 (29.2%)
FG attempts: 3/24 (12.5%)
TOs: 3/24 (12.5%)
Western Kentucky
Offensive score Yes: 15/35 (42.9%)
Offensive score No: 20/35 (57.1%)
Punts: 10/35 (28.6%)
TDs: 9/35 (25.7%)
FG attempts: 8/35 (22.9%)
TOs: 8/35 (22.9%)
Western Kentucky had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.
South Alabama vs Western Kentucky betting trend to know
The Over is 3-0-1 in South Alabama’s last four games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky.
South Alabama vs Western Kentucky game info
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 21, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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