College Football’s bowl season begins in earnest this Saturday with the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, between the MAC’s Western Michigan Broncos and the Sun Belt’s South Alabama Jaguars.
Both teams are looking for their first winning season under their respective head coaches, and my South Alabama vs. Western Michigan prop picks expect Jamaal Pritchett, Kentrel Bullock, and Jalen Buckley to shine on December 14.
South Alabama vs Western Michigan props for Salute to Veterans Bowl
Pritchett anytime TD (+100 at BetMGM)- Bullock Over 82.5 rush yds (-115 at BetMGM)
Buckley Over 58.5 rush yds (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-13.
Read full analysis of each pick.
South Alabama vs Western Michigan college football player props
Prop bet #1: Jamaal Pritchett anytime touchdown
Jamaal Pritchett is a prolific receiver in the Sun Belt, accumulating 91 receptions for 1,127 yards and nine touchdowns for the South Alabama Jaguars.
Head coach Major Applewhite has a long history of coaching effective offenses, which generally include a productive WR1. Last year, Caullin Lacy racked up 91/1,316/7 splits, and two years ago, Jalen Tolbert went for 82/1,474/8.
Pritchett took advantage of his opportunity in a role that generally results in huge statistical seasons. He possesses eye-popping athleticism and overwhelmed most Sun Belt teams, so we should expect nothing less against a MAC opponent.
The Western Michigan Broncos have a concerning secondary, checking in at 127th in EPA per pass and 132nd in passing success rate.
They don’t play many pass-happy teams in their conference but still managed to put up putrid numbers and were burned for 329 passing yards by Ball State, 413 passing yards by Akron, and 309 passing yards by Buffalo.
The Jags have moved the ball well through the air, ranking 24th in passing success rate. Quarterback Gio Lopez left the regular season finale and can be deemed questionable for this bout. Still, backup Bishop Davenport has looked serviceable in spot duty and his team holds sizable statistical advantages, so the offense should hum like normal regardless of who is under center.
Pritchett has found the end zone in 11 of his last 16 games. This is an enticing price against a bad defense, so I’m buying him to hit pay dirt at EVEN money.
Prop bet #2: Kentrel Bullock Over 82.5 rushing yards
True freshman running back Fluff Bothwell was a breakout star as a true freshman for South Alabama, racking up 832 yards and 13 scores on the ground. He’s since hit the transfer portal, leaving Kentrel Bullock as the workhorse back for the Salute to Veterans Bowl.
The two formed a potent one-two punch this year, with Bullock actually handling more carries (135) than Fluff (111). Bullock made good on his workload, averaging a healthy 3.85 yards after contact per attempt while forcing the third-most missed tackles (46) in the Sun Belt (per PFF).
South Alabama's offense operated with deadly efficiency overall this season, ranking 10th in EPA per play and ninth in success rate. A strong rushing attack led those numbers, ranking fourth in EPA per rush and seventh in rushing success rate.
That gives the Jaguars a huge advantage on paper against a bad Broncos defense (121st in EPA per play, 125th in rushing success rate). Lance Taylor’s squad has been particularly poor on standard downs, so it’s hard to see them stopping USA’s rushing attack.
Bullock runs behind a strong offensive line that should plow holes repeatedly through this soft Broncos defense. With USA forecasted to be ahead of schedule and moving the chains, Bullock should have a solid day on the ground.
Considering Davenport isn’t as much of a runner as Lopez, and the latter likely won’t be 100% if he does indeed suit up, more rushing usage should be funneled toward Bullock.
Prop bet #3: Jalen Buckley Over 58.5 rushing yards
Western Michigan has a crowded backfield this season with a three-headed backfield posing all sorts
Oklahoma State transfer Jaden Nixon handled 132 carries for 874 yards and nine scores as a home-run threat. Last year’s freshman star Jalen Buckley took 120 carries for 657 yards and eight touchdowns. Zahir Abdus-Salaam made his name heard as well, with 104 carries for 567 yards and three scores.
The most bankable option among this trio is Buckley. He started strong with 64 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Wisconsin in the opener but then missed the entire month of September due to injury.
Since returning in Week 7, he leads the team in carries (92) by 28 and rushing yards (550) by 160. He has great underlying metrics in that span, averaging 4.10 yards after contact per attempt while forcing 16 missed tackles (per PFF), also most on the team.
It’s not a surprise he’s putting up good numbers after eclipsing 1,000 yards as a redshirt freshman a year ago. I’m a believer in his talent and will bet on him going Over his rushing yardage total of 58.5 on Saturday.
Western Michigan has been effective on offense, ranking 33rd in EPA per play and 36th in success rate. The Broncos prefer to keep the ball on the ground (32nd in rush rate) and have been efficient when doing so (33rd in EPA per rush, 54th in rushing success rate, 18th in rushing explosiveness).
South Alabama is no world beater on defense against the run, ranking 67th in EPA per rush and 109th in rushing explosiveness. The Jaguars struggle to bring down ball carries, checking in at 121st in PFF’s tackling metric.
Buckley has gone Over this number in nine of his last 13 games, and I’ll bet on him doing so again this weekend.
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