The Alabama Crimson Tide return home following their upset loss to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks who just got rocked by Mississippi.
Between the Crimson Tide’s explosive offense and the Gamecocks’ inability to throw the ball, my South Carolina vs. Alabama predictions expect Kalen DeBoer’s squad to get back on track.
Read all about it below in my college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
South Carolina vs Alabama prediction and best bet
My best bet
Alabama -21.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The fine folks of Tuscaloosa are so confounded by the fact Alabama lost to Vanderbilt just a week after taking down Georgia, there are think pieces being written about Kalen DeBoer’s game day attire.
But fear not Crimson Tide faithful, Alabama should look like a national power once again vs. South Carolina.
While the Gamecocks proved to be a feisty matchup for LSU a few weeks ago, they looked out of place at home against Mississippi last Saturday. The 27-3 loss highlighted the problems with this roster, namely their offensive inconsistencies.
There are two massive issues with SC. Its quarterback, LaNorris Sellers, isn’t much of a threat in the passing game, and its offensive line has all kinds of deficiencies in pass blocking.
South Carolina is throwing for the 10th-fewest yards per game in the Power 4 (176) and has given up the most sacks in the country (22). It’s just 87th in EPA per dropback, and Alabama can take advantage.
The Crimson Tide are 16th in SP+ on defense and can lock in on stopping Sellers and running back Rocket Sanders in the run game.
With the Gamecocks' offensive issues, Alabama should be able to chip away at their mighty defense and pull away in a similar fashion to the Rebels.
Jalen Milroe’s dual-threat ability makes Alabama’s running game nearly impossible to stop. It’s rushing for 194.2 yards per game, has the most rushing TDs in the SEC (20), and ranks fourth in EPA per rush.
It’s not as if defensive coordinator Clayton White can key in on the run game. Milroe is first in the country in QB rating (201.2) and is the only QB in the country with seven-plus big-time throws, an adjusted completion rate over 80%, and less than two turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
Not to mention, Ryan Williams is a walking big play. Alabama should win somewhere in the range of 38-13.
South Carolina vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Alabama -20.5
Ryan Williams Over 59.5 receiving yards
Jalen Milroe Over 59.5 rushing yards
It’s almost unfathomable Williams is this good as a 17-year-old true freshman. He’s 12th in the country in receiving yards (544) and has the highest average per reception of any player with at least 10 catches (28.6).
It might only take one play for Williams to hit the Over on his receiving yards for this matchup — he has at least one catch of 40+ yards in every game this season. He’s Top 3 in the nation in both YAC per reception (13.4) and yards per route run (13.4), and he clearly has Milroe’s trust.
And for as impressive as Milroe has been as a passer when connecting with Williams, Alabama’s offense is at its best when he’s utilizing his legs. Milroe’s rushed for Over 59.5 yards in three of five games this season and is averaging 11.8 carries per game.
He’s Top 20 in the nation among QBs in yards after contact (168) and 10+ yard runs (12). It should only take a few explosive carries to clear this line.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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South Carolina vs Alabama odds
South Carolina vs Alabama live odds
South Carolina vs Alabama opening odds
- South Carolina vs. Alabama spread: Alabama -20.5
- South Carolina vs. Alabama moneyline: South Carolina +900, Alabama -1,600
- South Carolina vs. Alabama Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
South Carolina vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
- Alabama opened as a 20.5-point home favorite and the line has since moved another point in its direction.
- Both Alabama and South Carolina are 3-2 ATS this season, and both failed to cover last week.
- The Over/Under opened at 51.5 and has come down to 50.5 as kickoff approaches.
- The Crimson Tide are 4-1 betting the Over this season, while the Gamecocks are just 2-3.
South Carolina vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama has covered the spread in five of their last seven games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for South Carolina vs Alabama.
South Carolina vs Alabama game info
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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