South Carolina vs Tennessee Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Rattler Rattles Vols' Cage in Knoxville

No. 21 Tennessee will welcome the Gamecocks to town in an SEC affair when South Carolina travels to Knoxville. Each of these teams will enter with a lone loss on its record. For the Vols, that loss came in its first conference road test at Florida. The conference loss for South Carolina happened in a similar scenario in the same week, and it was a hard-fought one against No. 1 Georgia.

What's the best bet in the college football odds for this matchup? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for South Carolina vs. Tennessee on Saturday, September 30.

South Carolina vs Tennessee best odds

South Carolina vs Tennessee picks and predictions

These two teams are in similar places coming into this one. 

Regression was always likely for Tennessee after it reached heights it hadn’t seen for the better part of a decade under head coach Josh Heupel. It lost a handful of offensive stars, and we’ve seen the result.

In some ways, you can throw South Carolina in that same boat, too. It felt like the Gamecocks had turned a corner last year under Shane Beamer after they finished winning two of the final three regular-season games, including a win over arch-rival Clemson and blowout of the Vols. With each of these teams seasons sitting on a proverbial knife-edge, each knows how big this one is on Saturday.

"It's a new week every week," Heupel said Monday. "Last year, [the Gamecocks] were more physical than us. They competed harder than we did on that night. We didn't handle the environment the right way. Those are lessons that have to continue to move forward with us as a program, but last year has nothing to do with this week."

With the stakes so high, I’m leaning on experience and, in this case, QB play. I’m riding with South Carolina signal caller Spencer Rattler in our best bet here.

Looking at the game on paper, there are obvious weaknesses in the Tennessee defense. That starts with the passing defense.

The Vols’ arrive 45th in EPA against the pass, a modest rating and nothing to be too concerned about until you look deeper. When the Vols’ have faced its lone stiff competition, they suffered. Graham Mertz only passed for 166 yards but moved it methodically when needed, and outside of that, the Vols’ have yet to face anyone close to a similar quality of thrower like Rattler. 

Some of this is a bet on projection, but it’s also a bet on an expectation of how the game will go. I expect South Carolina to be down. The Georgia performance has, in some ways, clouded how good its defense is.

Tennessee QB Joe Milton has underwhelmed this season. However, he can still thrash a South Carolina defense that ranks 121st in EPA against the pass, especially in a Heupel offense. When that happens, Rattler will be forced to throw to keep South Carolina in the game.

Rattler has been much maligned throughout his college football career, but he enters this game playing his best football. He wasn’t asked to throw a ton last week, but when he was, he was dynamite, throwing only two incompletions on a 288 passing-yard day. Outside of that, he’s had two performances over 300 yards, and was strong against what many people consider the best defense in college football.

This total is too low if we get even an average performance from Rattler on Saturday. 

My best bet: Spencer Rattler Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

South Carolina vs Tennessee same-game parlay

Spencer Rattler Over 268.5 Passing Yards

Bru McCoy Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Joe Milton Over 2.5 Passing TDs

+617 at FanDuel

The theme of this one? Aerial attack. We’re taking our best bet and pairing it with two other props that involve the passing game.

First, we’re grabbing Bru McCoy Over 48.5 receiving yards. I like that his production instantly went up on the Vols' biggest game of the year so far when he recorded 94 yards. I’m expecting something similar here. 

To finish things off, we’re grabbing Milton Over 2.5 passing scores. Given the struggles of South Carolina’s pass defense, this one feels pretty self-explanatory. The only thing slowing this down is a blowout.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

South Carolina vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

Tennessee has the matchup they want in this one. South Carolina’s passing defense looks ripe for the picking, as we’ve highlighted. 

Yes, facing North Carolina and QB Drake Maye at the beginning of the season helped inflate some of those EPA numbers, but that’s still the case.

Look at last week. The Gamecocks welcomed a struggling Mississippi offense, and although it won the game, it didn’t come easy. QB Will Rogers lit South Carolina up through the air to the tune of 487 yards on 30 of 48 passing. That leads me to believe Milton can have success on Saturday. 

Still, this is too many points to trust with Tennessee at the current 10.5 number. It just simply hasn’t earned it. It whiffed against Florida in its only actual test and even had some issues with UTSA last week until the fourth quarter. I’m passing on the spread here.

I’ll be placing a unit on the Over 63.5 here, and it’s for all the reasons listed above. South Carolina’s passing defense leaves much to be desired, and I’m confident backing Rattler in this matchup. 

The last four matchups between these teams have all gone Over, and there’s a similar recipe for this one to do the same. Expect Tennessee to start hot and for South Carolina to chase them throughout the game.

South Carolina vs Tennessee betting trend to know

South Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 58% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for South Carolina vs Tennessee.

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