Southern Miss vs Southern Alabama Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Jaguars Attack Southern Miss Run Defense

Who’s ready for some early week Sun Belt fun? Well, "fun" might be a relative term as the South Alabama Jaguars host the Southern Miss Golden Eagles.

The Jaguars season has already had its fair share of highs and lows. They upset Oklahoma State but also have a straight-up loss as three-score favorites against Central Michigan. But at least USA sits at 3-3 heading into this matchup while the Golden Eagles are still looking for their first win vs. an FBS opponent in 2023.

Can the Jaguars carry the momentum of a 55-7 win over UL Monroe into a second straight conference game and cover a big spread? Or will the Golden Eagles keep this close?

I break down tonight's college football odds and bring you my free college football picks for this Sun Belt matchup — South Alabama vs. Southern Miss.

Southern Miss vs Southern Alabama best odds

Southern Miss vs Southern Alabama picks and predictions

South Alabama has had one of the more interesting seasons in college football, the highlight of which was of course a stunning 33-7 beatdown of Oklahoma State. The Jaguars then lost in one of the most predictable letdown spots imaginable, dropping their next game to Central Michigan as 16.5-point favorites. But they’ve built some momentum following a 55-7 win over UL Monroe in their last game. 

Southern Miss, on the other hand, hasn’t won a game since a season-opening victory against FCS Alcorn State. Not only have they not won, but they also haven’t covered a spread. With four of those losses coming by 17 points or more.

And one of the reasons the Golden Eagles have yet to take flight is because they’re getting destroyed on the ground. Southern Miss is getting rumbled over up 5.2 yards per carry and 190.6 rushing yards per game. Those marks 117th and 112th respectively in the nation vs. FBS opponents. That means the Golden Eagles will have their hands full with Jaguars running back La’Damian Webb.

Webb was instrumental in the early season win over the Pokes rushing for 151 yards and two touchdowns. The former Florida State back is off to a great start overall, rushing for 476 yards and eight scores through the Jaguars' first six games. That works out to 5.7 yards per carry, so I’m betting he could rack up some big numbers in this matchup. 

Webb’s rushing yard prop is set at 80.5 for this one. He’s gone Over that number in three of his last five games. In two of the games, he landed under were against James Madison and Tulane, two of the most ferocious running defenses in the country. Webb has breakaway speed and can consistently get to the second level of the Southern Miss defense. Mix in the poor tackling from the Golden Eagles and Webb should eclipse this number on Tuesday night with relative ease.

My best bet: La'Damian Webb Over 80.5 rush yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Southern Miss vs Southern Alabama same-game parlay

La'Damian Webb Over 80.5 yards

Frank Gore Jr. Under 70.5 rushing yards

Under 53.5

+423 at FanDuel

We start with our best bet which is La’Damian Webb to go Over 80.5 rushing yards. But he’s not the only running back we’re going to highlight in this matchup.

With this being a Southern Miss game, we’ll have to look at Frank Gore Jr. Gore has rumbled for more than 100 yards in two of his last three games. But those two games were against some poor rushing defenses in Arkansas State and Texas State. And in the other four games, he’s been held below 66 yards. South Alabama allows just 3.5 yards per carry. I’m adding the Under 70.5 on Gore’s rushing total.

To wrap up this SGP we are playing the total. I think the run game will be key to the offense for both teams, meaning that the clock will be continuously moving all night. That screams Under to me. So, tack on Under 53.5, and if all three hit we’re cashing a +423 ticket.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Southern Miss vs Southern Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for this Sun Belt battle hit the board with South Alabama as 17-point home favorites. The early action has been on the Jaguars, bumping the line up slightly to USA -17.5. And it makes sense.

As noted, Southern Miss is still looking for its first win of the season and not much is going right for this team. The Golden Eagles rank 113th in yards per play vs. FBS opponents and 127th in opponent yards per play. Their quarterback play has also been inconsistent with Billy Wiles completing just 53% of his passes and throwing nearly as many interceptions (five) as touchdowns (seven).

On Tuesday, Wiles and the Golden Eagles will face a USA defense that ranks 36th in opponent yards per play vs. FBS opponents. 

That said, I’m a little wary how laying those points with the Jaguars. They’ve played two games this season where they have been more than two touchdowns. They haven’t covered either, which includes the outright loss to Central Michigan.

I do feel the big win over UL Monroe will have them a little more focused as conference play picks up, but I’m still staying away.

When it comes to the total, that opened at 53 and has been bet up a half point to sit at 53.5 as of Monday evening. Like I wrote about above, the running game should be the focus in this matchup and I am leaning towards the Under.

Southern Miss vs Southern Alabama betting trend to know

Southern Mississippi has only hit the moneyline in five of their last 13 games for -5.15 units. Find more college football betting trends for Southern Miss vs Southern Alabama.

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