The Oregon Ducks host the Stanford Cardinal in a Pac-12 game where Oregon is favored by 17 points. The Cardinal are reeling after losing running back E.J. Smith for the season with an undisclosed injury.
Stanford has lost two straight games while the Ducks, who are ranked No. 13 in the country, are 3-1. After being embarrassed in their season opener, losing to No. 1 Georgia, Oregon has rattled off three victories.
Can Oregon keep the momentum going or will underdog Stanford find a way to upset the Ducks? Continue reading for free college football picks and predictions for Stanford vs. Oregon on October 1.
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Stanford vs Oregon best odds
Stanford vs Oregon picks and predictions
Oregon has rebounded well after the devastating loss it suffered at Georgia the first week of the season. The team has won three straight since then, including a dominating 41-20 performance against then-No. 19 BYU.
In those three games, the Ducks have outscored their opponents 155-74. Quarterback Bo Nix, who transferred from Auburn, seems to have settled in with his new team. Nix has had a completion percentage of 72.2 or higher in his last three games, throwing for 10 touchdowns and just one interception.
The Ducks' talented offensive line has given Nix plenty of time in the pocket and has also allowed a strong running game to blossom, averaging 198.3 yards on the ground. Oregon is also 17th in the country in total yards with an average of 495 yards per game.
No matter what route Oregon chooses, Stanford will have a tough time defending it. The Cardinal are allowing an average of 400.3 yards per game, with 236.3 coming through the air and 164 from the run.
Stanford got crushing news on Tuesday when coach David Shaw told reporters that star running back E.J. Smith was lost for the season with an undisclosed injury.
The son of running back Emmitt Smith was injured during the USC game two weeks ago. Before exiting, Smith had rushed for 88 yards on 19 carries. The week before, he had 118 yards on 11 carries against Colgate.
Smith’s replacement Casey Filkins, rushed for 100 yards on 20 carries last week against Washington. He will face a stiffer challenge in the Oregon run defense, which is ranked 16th limiting opponents to an average of 86.5 yards per game.
Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee may have to try and win this game through the air and the Ducks are more accommodating in that area. Oregon ranks 125th out of 131 FBS teams in defending the pass, allowing an average of 301.5 yards per game.
Oregon Coach Dan Lanning knows they will have to keep McKee in check.
“I think he understands their system really well,” Lanning told reporters. “They do some stuff that requires quarterback reads that's going to be him making decisions based on box count and stuff like that and he does a good job making decisions there. He's a true pocket passer and does a good job delivering it.”
If this game was at Stanford, I would be leery of laying so many points, but with it in Eugene, I like the Ducks to cover the 17.
My best bet: Oregon -17 (-108 at PointsBet)
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Stanford vs Oregon spread analysis
The opening line on this game was 13 but went up to 17 on news that Smith was lost for the season. That may cause more of a sweat. Having to tack on another four points to cover will no doubt upset some nerves of Oregon backers, especially since Filkins has filled in effectively for Smith.
What will give those laying the points solace is that Stanford is 7-18-1 against the spread in its last 26 conference games. It's also 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss.
More recently, the Cardinal are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 0-6 ATS against a team with a winning record.
The Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
The Cardinal have the ability to hang with the Ducks for maybe a half but Nix & Co. will start to pull away in the second half by using their size advantage.
Stanford vs Oregon Over/Under analysis
The Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these programs at Autzen Stadium. The line opened at 61.5 but shot up to 64 and this game should see enough scoring to go Over the increased total.
This season, Stanford has scored 22, 28, and 10 points. Its games have gone Under twice and Over once.
Throw out the three points Oregon scored against Georgia, and it has been hitting the Over easily. In the game after the Georgia loss, the total was 70.5 and the Ducks nearly hit the Over by themselves, scoring 70. They scored 41 vs. BYU and 44 vs. Washington State. They are averaging 39.5 points a game if you include the Georgia loss. Take it out and the Ducks are averaging 51.7.
If Oregon sticks to that average and Stanford can contribute a couple of touchdowns, this game should cruise to the Over.
Stanford vs Oregon betting trend to know
The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the two teams' last six meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Stanford vs. Oregon.
Stanford vs Oregon game info
| Location: | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Saturday, October 1, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fox Sports 1 |
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