Syracuse vs Pittsburgh Odds, Picks and Predictions: Offenses Overcome Recent Skids

Two ACC schools will be looking to break two-game losing streaks on Saturday as the No. 22-ranked Syracuse Orange visit the Pittsburgh Panthers.

Syracuse was the darling of the college football world through six weeks, but losses to the Clemson Tigers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish have taken some shine off its season. Pittsburgh is just 1-3 in ACC conference play and 4-4 overall after losing to the Louisville Cardinals and the North Carolina Tar Heels.

While the Orange have played great defense all year, there were signs against Notre Dame that there are weaknesses opponents can exploit. Read on to learn how that impacts our college football betting picks and predictions for Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh on November 5.

Syracuse vs Pittsburgh best odds

Syracuse vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions

If you told Syracuse coach Dino Babers before the season that his team would have started out 6-2, he probably would have signed for that number without hesitation. But after a 6-0 start, two straight losses by the Orange have felt like a letdown and a disappointment, even coming against football powerhouses Clemson and Notre Dame.

Even through the Clemson game, the Orange continued to play outstanding defense. While Syracuse failed to score in the second half, it still had a chance to win the game in the final minute, as its defense held the Tigers to just 27 points. 

However, the Tigers ran for 293 yards against Syracuse in that game, and Notre Dame clearly took notice. The Irish pounded the ball against the Orange, running for 246 yards on 54 carries. The result was a 41-point outburst, by far the most successful offensive output against Syracuse this season.

Pittsburgh will surely have taken notice. The Panthers should run their offense through junior running back Israel Abanikanda, who has run for 1,086 yards and 16 touchdowns on the year. Abanikanda is running for 5.9 yards per carry, while the Orange have allowed 4.8 yards per rushing attempt over their last two games.

The traffic won’t be all one-way, however. Syracuse has scored well all season long, scoring 21 points or more in every single game. The Pittsburgh defense isn’t as imposing as Clemson or Notre Dame, with the Panthers allowing 27.9 points per contest. 

With quarterback Garrett Shrader’s status unknown after suffering a concussion against Notre Dame, the conventional wisdom seems to be that Syracuse will rely more on running back Sean Tucker against Pittsburgh. However, if freshman Carlos Del Rio-Wilson gets the start, Syracuse may look to throw the ball more than it would with Shrader. 

Del Rio-Wilson showed off a strong arm in relief against Notre Dame but doesn’t run the ball as effectively as Shrader. That would also play well against the Pittsburgh defense, which has been strong against the run, giving up just 3.8 yards per carry, but ranks just 69th in the country against the pass. 

Despite these numbers and matchup issues, the total on this game has actually been coming down during the week. That means I’m being something of a contrarian by backing the Over in this game. Pittsburgh will find success on the ground, while the Syracuse offense will score points against the Panthers, as it has against every other opponent this year. 

My best bet: Over 48 (-110 at Caesars)

Syracuse vs Pittsburgh spread analysis

The line on this game opened at Pittsburgh -3.5 and has remained in that ballpark for most of the week. Some books are starting to offer Pittsburgh -4 as their main line, showing a slight move toward the Panthers.

Syracuse is 6-2 against the spread this year, thanks in large part to the way the Orange overperformed expectations early in the year. Pittsburgh has gone just 2-6 ATS on the season.

While the Panthers will almost certainly lean hard on their running game, they’ll have to throw the ball from time to time if they want to win this game. Pittsburgh has struggled to generate much through the air this year, throwing for just 227.4 yards per game. 

Meanwhile, Syracuse ranks fourth in the country in pass defense. The Orange have generated eight interceptions on defense, while Pittsburgh quarterback Kedon Slovis has already thrown five picks on the year.

Syracuse and Pittsburgh should both be able to score points in what should be a close matchup. I understand why the Panthers are a slight favorite as the home team, but the Orange have been better throughout the season. 

Syracuse has found ways to win close games, and if Pittsburgh needs to score late, its passing attack will have trouble in this matchup. Let’s take the Orange and the points in what should be a close game decided in the final minutes.

Syracuse vs Pittsburgh Over/Under analysis

After opening at 50.5, the total on this game has dropped throughout the week, with many sites now setting the total at 48.

My best bet was all about why we should be on the Over here, but there are more numbers that support this position. These teams are both scoring over 30 points per game. While Syracuse has allowed only 18.4 points per game to opponents, Notre Dame and Clemson provided the blueprint on how to beat that number, even if Pittsburgh won’t match the 41 points the Fighting Irish put up last week.

The Syracuse defense is also dealing with some recent injuries that have sapped its depth. Defensive backs Neil Nunn and Garrett Williams are both out for the season, joining the likes of linebacker Stefon Thompson and lineman Terry Lockett. 

Meanwhile, both offenses should have their main offensive weapons available. Shrader is the one exception, but Rio-Wilson may not miss a beat if he starts for the Orange, as Pittsburgh is more vulnerable to the passing attack. 

The Panthers have played to totals Over 50 points five times this season, including in four of their five home games. Syracuse has combined with its opponents for 48 or more points five times this year.

Syracuse vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last six games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh.

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