TCU vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Frogs Continue Leaping Spreads

What a magical first season in Fort Worth it has been for Sonny Dykes.

TCU is 10-0 and one of just four remaining unbeaten teams as we head into Week 12 of the 2022 College Football season. Cross that one off if you had it on your bingo card.

Can the Horned Frogs keep the magic alive as they hit the road for Waco in a matchup against last year’s Big 12 Champions, the Baylor Bears?

Check out our college football picks and predictions for TCU vs. Baylor on Saturday, November 19 to find out. 

TCU vs Baylor best odds

TCU vs Baylor picks and predictions

Despite the wild run of success to start the season, the oddsmakers have yet to believe in this TCU team. It’s led to some big profits for bettors that have faith in the Horned Frogs, as they’re an absurd 8-1-1 ATS this season, including a run of four straight covers. Just a week ago, TCU was a +7.5 underdog against the Texas Longhorns, so naturally, the Horned Frogs won outright by a score of 17-10 in order to cover with a margin of +14.5.

Despite being ranked No. 4 in the latest CFP Rankings as one of just four undefeated teams in the nation, TCU is just a -2.5 favorite on the road against a middling 6-4 Baylor team. Will this be more of the same in Week 12, where TCU covers as a “no one believes in us” team?

Baylor is very well-coached under Dave Aranda. That being said, this isn’t the same team as it was a year ago when the Bears went 12-2 and won the Big 12 Championship. Six players were selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, which is significant for a program built on development more than most schools do in this day and age of transfer portal mercenary teams. Development takes time, and Baylor has naturally taken a step back in a reloading year. 

The move to Blake Shapen at quarterback has not gone as anticipated, as the first-year starter has thrown just 13 touchdowns while giving away eight interceptions. This team lacks a dynamic passing attack, which is understandable, considering its top three receivers from a year ago aren’t on this year’s roster.

The Bears rank 46th in passing EPA (expected points added), garbage time excluded, and 86th in passing explosiveness. The rushing attack is effective (199.6 yards per game), but this is not an explosive offense. The last time this Baylor offense averaged over 6.0 yards per play in a game was back on October 13th against a bad West Virginia defense. 

TCU showed that they can compete defensively in last week’s performance against a good Texas offense, holding the Longhorns without a touchdown. The Horned Frogs have one of the best offenses in the country and only need to win this one by a field goal in order to cover, so I’ll back a TCU team that has been the most undervalued in the country to date. 

My best bet: TCU -2.5 (-110 at bet365)

TCU vs Baylor spread analysis

The spread is set at TCU -2.5 at all sportsbooks as of this writing.

How good has TCU been ATS this season? The Horned Frogs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record, so they won’t be intimated by facing last year’s conference champions. They’ve been road warriors, too, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games. 

Max Duggan is an experienced quarterback who’s averaging 9.3 yards per attempt in his fourth season as the starter. He’s tossed 25 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions while leading an offense averaging 40.5 points per game.

It sure helps to have a future first-round NFL Draft pick at receiver, and that’s exactly what Quentin Johnston is — the 6’4” athletic freak has 716 receiving yards and five touchdowns, and is a mismatch for every opponent he faces. Kendre Miller is one of the best running backs in the nation and runs behind an experienced offensive line that ranks 18th in Stuff Rate, paving the way for the explosive Miller’s 1,147 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. 

Baylor doesn’t have the offense to match up with TCU, so the Bears will hope to control the time of possession. Baylor ranks 40th in EPA and 64th in offensive explosiveness. Defense has been the calling card under Aranda, but Baylor hasn’t been particularly adept on that side of the ball this season. The Bears rank just 61st in EPA and 76th in success rate, and have struggled to replace four defensive starters from a year ago that were selected in the draft. 

TCU vs Baylor Over/Under analysis

The total is set at 57.5 at most locations at the time of this writing, although 58 is also available. Both teams have been profitable to the Over this season, as TCU is 6-4 while Baylor is 7-3. 

It seems as though bookmakers have been overvaluing Baylor’s defense this season. That’s no surprise, considering the Bears were a Top-10 defense a year ago, allowing only 18.3 points per game. Aranda is a defensive-minded head coach, and it was anticipated that he’d have his team performing at a high level yet again on that side of the ball despite the impactful departures.

TCU has a number of advantages offensively against a struggling Baylor defense. The Horned Frogs rank 24th in Rushing Success Rate and 19th in Rushing Success Rate, and have already run for a whopping 26 touchdowns this season. While Baylor effectively limits big plays on the ground (11th in rushing explosiveness), they rank 68th in Rushing Success Rate, and therefore TCU should stay ahead of the chains. If TCU is surprisingly unable to keep the chains moving, Duggan and Johnston should light up a poor Baylor secondary that ranks 126th in passing downs EPA and 127th in passing downs success rate. 

TCU should be able to put up its fair share of points, while Baylor will simply need to provide ample support. Considering both teams have had a propensity for going Over the total this season, I’m inclined to think they find a way to do that yet again in Week 12.

TCU vs Baylor betting trend to know

TCU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for TCU vs. Baylor.

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