The TCU Horned Frogs are a -7.5 favorite when they open their Big 12 season with a matchup against newly admitted Big 12 member Houston Cougars. Kick-off is set for 8:00 pm ET before a sell-out crowd at TDECU Stadium.
Saturday marks the third different conference the two Texas instate rivals have competed against each other in, and while the Cougars hold a 13-12 series edge, TCU has won their last eight meetings.
Please join us as we share our best college football odds with some free college football picks and predictions for TCU vs. Houston on Saturday, September 16.
TCU vs Houston best odds
TCU vs Houston picks and predictions
While I do believe TCU will win this game, my best bet is for Houston +7.5 (-110) to cover the spread at DraftKings.
Saturday should be a good atmosphere with a sell-out crowd for this Big 12 matchup. TCU and Houston are the states' two winningest FBS teams since 2011, and I expect this contest to be entertaining.
TCU is off to a 1-1 start to its season, and they can score the football. Sophomore quarterback Chandler Morris has been electric at times this season with his arm and his feet. He’s thrown for 542 yards and four TDs, with an additional 90 rushing yards and two scores. Wideout Warren Thompson is his main target, and five different receivers have hauled in TD passes.
The Houston passing defense will have its hands full covering the speedy TCU wideouts. The Cougars are 13th in the conference in passing yards allowed, yielding 402 passing yards and three scoring strikes in their Week 2 OT loss to Rice.
TCU can also rush the football. Aside from Morris, RB Emani Bailey has pounded defenses for 253 rushing yards. Houston ranks 12th in rushing defense but allowed 69 rushing yards but three TDs against Rice.
Houston junior quarterback Donovan Smith threw for 262 yards and a pair of TDs against Rice while scampering for an additional 57 yards and three scores. Wide Receiver Samuel Brown leads his Big 12 peers in receiving yards, Matthew Golden hauled in a pair of scoring strikes against Rice, and the trio faces a TCU defense ranked last in passing yards allowed.
The Cougars are eighth in the Big 12 in rushing. We’ve already seen how important Smith is to the running game, but RB Tony Mathis Jr. leads the team with 98 yards. TCU has a good rushing defense, allowing 70.5 yards per game and just two TDs.
This should be a cracker of a game, likely ending in a shootout. We have two big passing offenses against two soft passing defenses, and I expect both offenses to play well. Houston battled back from a 28-point deficit to tie the game against Rice, and they will fight TCU with everything they have. This contest should be close throughout, with Houston covering the +7.5.
My best bet: Houston +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
TCU vs Houston same-game parlay
Houston +7.5
TCU moneyline
We’ve already explained why I like Houston to cover the +7.5, but I also expect TCU to win this game.
The TCU defense has recorded seven sacks this season. The pass-heavy Houston offense and its veteran line with over 9000 snaps has already allowed six sacks, and I expect the Horned Frogs defense to stop at least one drive with a sack.
TCU has the more balanced and potent offense of the two. The Horned Frogs can win on the ground or in the air, and TCU’s Morris has more offensive options to deploy than Houston, with a defense good enough to get the stops necessary to win.
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TCU vs Houston spread and Over/Under analysis
This contest opened with a 62.5 total at Caesars but has jumped to 64.5 (-110). After discovering the following information, I decided against playing the total.
The Cougs rank eighth nationally in turnover margin (2.00), 10th in turnovers lost (1), and 14th in turnovers gained (5). The Cougars’ five takeaways are tied atop the Big 12 with BYU and Texas). Houston's four picks rank sixth in the country and first in the Big 12. The Cougars defense could end a TCU drive with an interception, and Morris might accommodate them.
The Horned Frogs defense allows 1.9 yards per rushing attempt, which could spell trouble for the Cougars star RB Mathis.
TCU returns four starters for a defensive backfield that led the nation in 2022 with 81 PBUs (passes defended plus interceptions) and has defended seven passes with one interception this season.
The Over is 1-1 through the Horned Frogs' first two contests and 1-1 this season in the Cougars' first two games..
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TCU vs Houston betting trend to know
TCU is 0-2 ATS this season but has hit the moneyline in six of their last seven away games (+8.00 Units / 74% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for TCU vs Houston.
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TCU vs Houston game info
| Location: | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, September 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fox |
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