Tennessee vs Alabama Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Milroe Comes Through for Bama

This wasn’t supposed to be Alabama’s season. And while it hasn’t been pretty at times, here sits Nick Saban’s team at 6-1 and undefeated in SEC play heading into Week 8.

So, the path to yet another Crimson Tide conference crown is clear, with the Tennessee Volunteers now in their crosshairs. It’s a revenge spot for the Tide following a loss in last year’s 52-49 shootout in Knoxville. But it doubles s pretty much a must-win for Tennessee with one conference loss already on its resume.

On top of that, oddsmakers believe this matchup might play out a little differently with a total at about half the amount of points scored in last year’s game.

I break down the college football odds and bring you my best free college football picks and predictions for this pivotal SEC showdown between Tennessee and Alabama on October 21.

Tennessee vs Alabama best odds

Tennessee vs Alabama picks and predictions

Alabama has now reeled off five wins in a row following that early-season loss to Texas. And despite some inconsistent point totals, the Crimson Tide have played relatively well. A reason for that is quarterback Jalen Milroe is looking more comfortable in this offense with each game that he plays.

In his last two games against Arkansas and Texas A&M, Milroe threw for 559 yards with five touchdowns with just one interception. While Milroe’s accuracy still needs some work, he makes Alabama’s offense dangerous with the threat of throwing a bomb down the field at any time. 

However, this Tennessee defense will provide one of the strongest fronts he has faced all season. The Volunteers stop unit has been the driving force behind the team’s 5-1 record. The Vols dominant front seven creates a ton of pressure, which makes things easier for the Tennessee secondary. The team ranks fourth in the nation in opponent yards per play and 15th in sack rate.

That pressure will be key against an Alabama offensive line that has struggled. But the best way to alleviate that pressure may be to call Milroe’s number more in the running game. Milroe has only had 68 designed runs this season, so Alabama hasn’t really used him as a rusher as much as you might have expected early on. I think that could change Saturday, which means we can attack Milroe’s rushing yard prop.

Milroe’s rushing yards O/U is set at 21.5 for this matchup. He went Over that number in the Tide’s first four games vs. FBS opponents this season. Now, the risk here is obviously if he gets sacked a bunch like in the last two games, which caused him to end up with negative rushing yards (because college football). 

Tennessee can certainly do that. But as I said, designed runs will not only help Alabama handle that Vols pressure but will just give Milroe more touches to rack up those rushing yards. Additionally, the Vols won’t be able to sell out against those designed runs because of Milroe’s big-play ability with his arm.

So, while Milroe may get sacked a couple of times, I believe Alabama will utilize Milroe’s legs as a weapon in this matchup. I’m backing him to go Over his rushing total on Saturday, a bet that FanDuel will give you a one-time 50% boost on.

My best bet: Jalen Milroe Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Tennessee vs Alabama same-game parlay

Jalen Milroe Over 21.5 Rushing Yards

Jalen Milroe anytime TD

Under 47.5

+516 at FanDuel

We’re not stopping with the Milroe props at our best bet for this game.

Not only does he have the ability to break a big run and take it to the house at any time, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some more work for him once the Tide gets closer to the goal line as well. So, let’s add Milroe to score a touchdown anytime.

To close this SGP out, let’s throw in the Under 47.5. I expect both teams to try and establish the run in this one (Tennessee doesn’t really have a choice), despite the fact that Tennessee and Alabama both have stout run defenses. That will milk the clock and help this Under hit.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Tennessee vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis

The betting line for this SEC matchup has seen plenty of action already. Alabama opened as 9.5-point home favorites but it was Tennessee which saw the early money, with the Tide dropping as low as 7.5. However, the line has bounced back since then and is sitting at Alabama -8.5 or -9 depending on the book.

It may seem prudent to take the underdog getting this many points with a defense as good as Tennessee’s, but unfortunately for the Vols, Alabama’s defense is arguably just as good. Alabama ranks sixth in opponent yards per play and fourth in sack rate. So, the defenses are a push.

The offenses, on the other hand, should not be treated as equal. Tennessee has done most of it’s work on the ground this year, as Joe Milton III has been unable to recapture the magic of Hendon Hooker from a season ago. Milton is completing 55.6% of his passes for just 7.1 yards per attempt with four picks through three SEC matchups. And being one-dimensional against this Nick Saban defense is not a recipe for success.

Milroe gives the Crimson Tide big-play ability, which the Volunteers don’t get with Milton. Mix that with this game being played in Tuscaloosa, and I’d have a slight lean toward Alabama.

When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 48 and has been bet down slightly to 47.5. That’s where it sits as of Friday afternoon. As noted above, the ground game will be utilized a lot in this matchup. Mix in two good defenses, and the Under looks like the right side here.

Tennessee vs Alabama betting trend to know

Tennessee has only hit the Over in one of their last five road games for -3.40 units. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Alabama.

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