Tennessee vs Florida Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Gators Seek Vengeance Against the Vols

It's a heated rivalry renewed when Tennessee travels to Florida to face the Gators tonight on the "Third Saturday in September." 

Florida has had a dominating historical hold on this series. In fact, entering 2022 the Gators had won five straight matchups against the Volunteers. However, that all changed last year when Florida came to Knoxville and lost 38-33.

When looking at the college football odds, what's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Tennessee vs. Florida on September 16.

Tennessee vs Florida best odds

Tennessee vs Florida picks and predictions

This one is a big one for Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier. Anyone who follows the sport knows that Florida hasn't been Florida for far too long now, and right or wrong, that has increased the pressure on Napier to deliver. He didn't help himself against Utah in Week 1 when the Utes solidly handled the Gators with a backup quarterback.

Again, this is a massive game for Florida and Billy Napier. Read his words yourself.

"It's a big week, It's Tennessee week. I think we've done a ton relative to educating our players about this rivalry," Napier told the media. "Do you understand that this was the game at one point in time in college football relative to the SEC, the eastern division, and certainly the national championship picture, right?"

Gators QB Graham Mertz shared similar comments. The former Wisconsin man explained how they've been shown multiple historical videos during the offseason about the rivalry. All this hype. All this bluster. You can bet that Tennessee is going to get Florida's best shot.

Let's start with a big-picture view. There is a belief in some college football circles that a Josh Heupel offense generally peaks in year one. 

We've witnessed the Tennessee Volunteers' impressive performance under his leadership last season, with the Vols excelling in nearly every offensive statistic. However, with opposing teams now having film of their high-tempo offense to study and adapt to, there's concern about whether the Vols' offense will maintain its effectiveness in the early weeks of this season.

Florida comes into this game with a QB who has outperformed Tennessee's Joe Milton. As someone who wasn't impressed with Mertz during the summer, it surprises me to say this, but the numbers speak for themselves. Florida has shown superiority in passing EPA, EPA per game, and success rate when passing this season. Mertz has also been highly efficient throwing the ball through his first two games, completing 77% of his passes.

The Gators also hold notable advantages in other areas, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They hold a significant edge in success rate and are led by linebacker Shemer James.

Tennessee may have the edge in terms of receivers, with names like Squirrel White and Dont'e Thorton, but the question is how much of this advantage will be negated if Milton can't deliver accurate passes.

I expect Florida to control the pace of the game and maintain overall possession time. Running back Montrell Johnson should also gain tough yards on the ground against a Tennessee rushing defense that ranks as average.

My best bet: Florida moneyline (+200 at DraftKings)

Tennessee vs Florida same-game parlay

Florida moneyline

Under 56.5

Montrell Johnson anytime touchdown

+988 at FanDuel

FanDuel is offering a 50% profit boost this weekend on this game, which means you can actually get this same-game parlay at a +1,482. I took our best bet of Florida moneyline and added two highly correlated plays.

Florida won't win this game in a high-scoring affair; it needs to be built to play that way right now. Since I believe the Gators will win on Saturday, this will be lower scoring because I expect them to dictate game speed. Florida has averaged about 69 plays per game this season, which is slightly above average. However, it'll be induced to go slower this weekend to keep the Vols offense off the field.

That directly ties into my last play of Johnson to hit paydirt. I'm expecting close to 15 carries for the Gators RB this weekend, and with that in mind, this becomes a numbers game. The Vols rush defense has improved, but I still need to find out whether or not that holds up in the trenches for 60 minutes.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Tennessee vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis

Since I'm rolling with Florida getting the outright win, I'm comfortable backing them on the spread. I suggest splitting the two bets if you'd like to be less risk-averse. 

Florida's dominance in this series may not directly affect the outcome on Saturday, but it does provide an extra confidence boost. Tennessee last won in Gainesville in 2003, and I'm not expecting that to change here considering the Gators are playing with more desperation and a sense of urgency. 

I projected the total to be at 52.5 and would play it to the 54 range. It's no secret how teams want to attack Tennessee's offense — they want to keep them off the field with slow tempo and body blows. The running clock has disproportionately affected groups that run the ball effectively, and Florida will have the game plan to do that on Saturday.

Back the Under in this spot. 

Tennessee vs Florida betting trend to know

Florida has hit the first quarter moneyline in its last three games at home (+3.00 Units / 53% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Florida.

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