The Oklahoma Sooners have not been touchdown underdogs at home since 1998. That third straight losing season got John Blake fired, and Bob Stoops was then hired.
Stoops brought in a quarterback named Josh Heupel, now the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers, and, indeed, touchdown chalk in Norman this weekend.
My Tennessee vs. Oklahoma predictions will doubt the Sooners even further, as my college football picks expect the favorite to take care of business on September 21.
Tennessee vs Oklahoma prediction
My best bet
Tennessee -7 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Quick, think of Tennessee football in the 2020s. Aside from mustard bottles and cigars, what did you think of? Yes, you thought of offense.
Quick, think of Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables. Forget about Oklahoma football, toppled wagons, and a barefoot moment during an Army game—focus instead on the former Clemson defensive coordinator.
What did you think of? Yes, you thought of excellent defenses.
Let’s talk about the Volunteers’ defense and the Sooners’ offense. Let’s talk about the unexpected twist that could come to define the 2024 college football season: Tennessee has a defense, and one could even consider arguing the Vols’ defense is better than their offense.
Exiting the 2022 season, Tennessee’s offense ranked No. 2 in ESPN's SP+ ratings, its defense at No. 30. After 2023, those were No. 18 and No. 22, respectively. Right now, the offense sits at No. 7 while the defense is No. 10.
Look at only 2024 data through the lens of cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com and Tennesses’s offense is higher ranked than its defense — No. 2 in expected points added (EPA) per snap compared to No. 1.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma prefers to throw the ball rather than run it, doing so 5.2% more often than usual game states would expect, ranking 34th most in the country. That doesn’t make a ton of sense, given the Sooners fail nearly two-thirds of the time they dropback, a bottom 20 mark in the country.
To make matters worse this weekend, the Volunteers have the No. 2 pass defense in terms of EPA. It is so worrying, that opponents have thus far tried to avoid it as much as possible.
Tennessee’s defense, not its offense, should dictate this weekend. Oklahoma’s offensive line is lacking, sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold often shows his age, and Venables has yet to become a natural at in-game adjustments.
The Vols’ defense will expose all of that, making this touchdown spread a bit shorter than it should be.
Tennessee vs Oklahoma same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee -6.5
Oklahoma team total Under 23.5 points
Dylan Sampson 2+ touchdowns
Oklahoma scored 16 points on Houston, and it needed two fourth-quarter short fields to pull away from Tulane last week. This offense is flawed and it starts with its offensive line, which has enough weak spots for Volunteers defensive end James Pearce Jr. to pressure through.
Every sack should be treated as a partial turnover, given how they typically crush drives, and a few partial turnovers will condemn the Sooners from reaching 24 points.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson has found the end zone nine times this season, including four just last week. This is value by default.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tennessee vs Oklahoma odds
Tennessee vs Oklahoma live odds
Tennessee vs Oklahoma opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee -7 | Oklahoma +7
- Moneyline: Tennessee -350 | Oklahoma +260
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 | Under 58.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Tennessee vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis
- Just a week ago, Tennessee was only a three-point favorite in lookahead lines for this matchup.
- When oddsmakers looked ahead to this week, the Volunteers hit the market as touchdown favorites. That number climbed to -7.5 on Monday and hung there until late in the week, with some books backing off to -6.5 at that point.
- A total of 58.5 falling to 57.5 on Monday should be taken as further endorsement of the better defense in this game.
Tennessee vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
Tennessee has given up 13 points through three games. The quality of opponents does not matter with a stat that extreme. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Oklahoma.
Tennessee vs Oklahoma game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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