It’s perhaps one of the more intriguing chapters of this rivalry when Vanderbilt welcomes Tennessee.
That intrigue can be attributed to the newfound success of the Commodores football team, which will be headed to a bowl game and notched a win that shook the college football world when it beat Alabama. Tennessee will enter this game, hoping to make it to the playoffs and my Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt predictions say the Vols will avoid that fate.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, November 30th.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt prediction and best bet
My best bet
Tennessee -10.5 (-125 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The one glaring element of this game that jumps out is the Tennessee passing game against the Vanderbilt defense. Beyond that, it’s mostly even, but that mismatch is so outsized that I can’t ignore it, and I’m taking the Vols to get the cover.
Vanderbilt has struggled against the pass, and this issue has really come to a head over the last few games.
They’ll come into this game ranking 119th in EPA per dropback. Even if the Tennessee offense hasn't been as effective as it was a season ago, that’s still a scary thought for the Dores’. After all, you’re facing an offense led by one of the more creative game planners in college football and a quarterback who has still shown flashes this season. Nico Iamaleava hasn’t necessarily lived up to the preseason expectations, but if there’s one thing he can do, it’s punish teams with explosive plays.
In three of the last four games against conference opponents, Iamaleava has connected for passes of over 30 yards, including a 55-yarder against Alabama and 73 yards against Mississippi State. Vandy is susceptible to that, and I expect Iamaleava will be able to make a few of those plays that break this one open.
The issues on the other side of the ball aren’t pronounced, but they are enough to make you wonder if Diego Pavia’s heroics can be a factor here. The former UNLV signal-caller has had a remarkable season, but he’s struggled against elite secondaries. Two of the best he’s faced this season in Kentucky and Texas saw him throw interceptions. Against Texas, he threw two interceptions along with 143 passing yards. Outside of the Horns’ secondary, this is likely the best secondary he’s faced.
This will be too much to overcome, even getting a cover against a team with the motivational carrot of a playoff berth potentially in front of them.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee -10.5
Nico Iamaleava Over 194.5 passing yards
Under 48.5
I’m expecting two things in this game: A dominant defensive performance for Tennessee against a one-dimensional offense and a good game from Iamaleava. This parlay encompasses both.
Iamaleava has eclipsed this number in just over half of his games this season and will have plenty of opportunities to hit a few plays here. Given the weakness of the Vandy defense, I like him to make it seven regular season games with 200 yards or more.
I made the total here 46.5. I don’t see the path for Vanderbilt to have much success. Pavia will inevitably put himself in challenging positions, and the Tennessee front four will pay him for that. On the other side of the ball, the Vols will likely get a bit conservative after establishing a two-torque lead.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tennessee vs Vanderbilt odds
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt live odds
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt opening odds
- Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt spread: Vanderbilt +11.5
- Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt moneyline: Tennessee -400, Vanderbilt +320
- Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under: 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tennessee has won five head-to-head meetings in this series but grabbed a cover in just two matchups.
- Three of these last four matchups have gone Over the total.
- Vanderbilt has won just one of its last four games but has covered the spread in three.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt betting trend to know
Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last seven games (+14.35 Units / 31% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Vanderbilt.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt game info
| Location: | FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-30, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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