In Ed Orgeron’s final regular season game as the head coach of the LSU Tigers, his team hosts Jimbo Fisher’s Texas A&M. LSU would head to a bowl game if the team were to find a way to win this one, so there’s a lot on the line in this game.
Will the Tigers upset the Aggies to extend their season? Keep reading our Texas A&M vs. LSU picks and predictions for the answer to that.
Texas A&M vs LSU odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Texas A&M was a 6.5-point favorite at the open of this one, and the line just hasn’t moved at all. The public is hot on the Over in this game, but that number has reflected it. It moved from 45.5 at open to as high as 47.5, depending on where you look.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Texas A&M vs LSU predictions
Predictions made on 11/26/2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Texas A&M vs LSU game info
• Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
• Date: Saturday, November 27, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Texas A&M vs LSU betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Texas A&M: Keldrick Carper S (Questionable), Brian Williams S (Questionable), Hezekiah Jones WR (Out), Luke Matthews OL (Out), Brian George DB (Out), Myles Jones DB (Out), Haynes King QB (Out).
LSU: Maason Smith DL (Questionable), Tre Bradford RB (Questionable), Koy Moore WR (Questionable), Major Burns DB (Questionable), Cordale Flott DB (Questionable), Sage Ryan DB (Questionable), Ed Ingram OL (Questionable), Deion Smith WR (Questionable), Garrett Nussmeier QB (Out), Chasen Hines OL (Out), Anthony Bradford OL (Out), Joseph Evans DT (Out), Ali Gaye DL (Out), Eli Ricks DB (Out), Kayshon Boutte WR (Out), Jared Small LB (Out), Derek Stingley Jr. DB (Out), Chris Hilton Jr. WR (Out), Andre Anthony LB (Out), John Emery Jr. (Out), Glen Logan DE (Out), Myles Brennan QB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
LSU is 16-5 against the spread in its last 21 games following a straight up win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas A&M vs. LSU.
Texas A&M vs LSU picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The last time the Aggies beat the Tigers in Death Valley was back in 1994, when Texas A&M earned an 18-13 win over LSU as a 7-point road favorite. Since then, the Tigers are 8-3 straight up and 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against the Aggies. This series has been thoroughly dominated by LSU, but it was Texas A&M that won 20-7 when these teams met last year.
This year, it’s the Tigers’ turn to play in front of their own home fans, and that should make a big difference in this game. After beating the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks last week, the Tigers are now just one win away from bowl eligibility. This season has been a disaster at times, with Orgeron ultimately losing his job just a couple of years removed from winning a title, but this is a very proud program. The Tigers would love to play in the postseason, and this game against the Aggies is more than winnable.
Texas A&M has an absurdly good defense — as has been the case over the last few years — but the Aggies have no passing game on offense. Quarterback Zach Calzada has done a nice job of avoiding mistakes and executing the offense, but he’s not capable of making big throws and winning games with his arm. That means that the Tigers just have to play the run well, as they can cut off the head of the snake by finding a way to keep Isaiah Spiller in check. Last year, Spiller rushed for 134 yards and a touchdown against LSU.
On the other hand, LSU has a much better passing game this year than it did a year ago. Sophomore Max Johnson has thrown for 2,509 yards with 24 touchdowns and only six picks this season. He’s not going to light the Aggies up by any means, but he is capable of making enough big throws to help the Tigers win this game.
Prediction: LSU +6.5 (-108)
Over/Under analysis
This game should end up being a bit higher scoring than the general consensus believes it will be.
For starters, even if LSU does a decent job of limiting the Texas A&M ground game, the Aggies are still going to have at least some success on the offensive side of the ball. They are too well-coached not to, and the Tigers also happen to have a ton of injuries on defense. And despite Texas A&M being a largely defensive-minded team, six of its last seven games would have gone Over the low total placed on this game.
There’s also the fact that Johnson and this passing game are a lot better than we’ve seen in recent weeks. They are due to get back on track in some capacity.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Over is 7-4 when Texas A&M is coming off a cover as a double-digit favorite and 11-4 when the Aggies have won two of their last three games since Fisher became the team’s coach.
Prediction: Over 45.5 (-110)
Best bet
Since Orgeron became the head coach of LSU, the Tigers are 15-4 straight up and 15-3-1 against the spread after playing two games in a row in which the team forced one or fewer turnovers. They’re also 22-14 straight up and 24-10-2 against the spread when facing teams that average at least 5.9 or more yards per play in that time.
Also, considering everything Orgeron has done for this program, there should be a lot of emotion on the LSU sidelines. And the Tigers’ fanbase should also come out and try to fire up its squad, as they are thankful for Orgeron’s time in Baton Rouge and want to see their team play in a bowl game. Sure, things have gotten a bit off the rails these last few years, but Coach O helped the Tigers win a national championship for the first time in over a decade.
Overall, look for LSU to compete its tail off in this game, and don’t be surprised if the Tigers end up winning outright.
Pick: LSU +6.5 (-108)
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