Texas A&M vs Mississippi Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Aggie Defense a Menace to Rebels SEC Hopes

The SEC West race is heating up as we head into November and the 5-3 Texas A&M Aggies are looking to play spoiler against the 7-1 Mississippi Rebels. 

The Aggies got a nice bounce-back win last week over South Carolina after back-to-back losses against Alabama and Tennessee. The Rebels have won four consecutive games after their lone loss to Alabama. Will home side keep its SEC title dreams alive and cover in the college football odds this week? 

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Texas A&M vs. Mississippi at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS on Saturday, November 4. 

Texas A&M vs Mississippi best odds

Texas A&M vs Mississippi picks and predictions

Last season, the Aggies fell at home 31-28 to a very similar Mississippi team amid their six-game losing streak. Running back Quinshon Judkins was a major problem for the A&M defense, as he ran for 205 yards and a touchdown.  However, the Texas A&M defense is much more consistent going into this matchup. 

The Aggies rank 27th in points allowed per game at 19.5. They also rank seventh in the country in total yards allowed (269.2), 14th in passing yards allowed (173.1), and 13th in rushing yards allowed (96.1). This allows the defense to get off the field and keep games lower-scoring. 

Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper has been a major reason for the surge in success from the Aggie defense this season. He’s the leading tackler on the team, but also has 15.0 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery. He will be a menace to a Mississippi line that has allowed 19 sacks and 7.1 tackles for loss per game (109th). 

The Rebels have an explosive offense, as per usual with Lane Kiffin teams, but they have had some issues with consistency. Mississippi only managed to score 10 points against Alabama and has failed to reach 30 points in a game against both Arkansas and Auburn. The Aggies likely have the best defense that Mississippi will see all year.

Texas A&M ranks seventh in the country in holding opponents to only 29.0% on third-down conversions. It has also only allowed opponents to convert four of 12 fourth downs. Surprisingly, opponents have only reached the red zone 17 times this season against the Aggies, and they’ve only allowed eight touchdowns in those situations. 

I don’t feel comfortable taking the Aggies to win this game on the road, but I do certainly trust their defense to do enough to keep this game Under the total. The Aggies rank 44th in the country in time of possession, while the Rebels rank 121st. The Aggies will control this game in terms of play style. 

My best bet: Under 54.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Texas A&M vs Mississippi same-game parlay

Under 54.5

Texas A&M +7.5

Quinshon Judkins Over 75.5 rush yards

50% boost available

+506 +759 at FanDuel

Before I saw the spread, I really liked Texas A&M to keep this game close. However, three points was too low for me, so we will get some insurance and take +7.5. Mississippi plays Georgia next week and may be looking ahead to that huge game. 

The Aggies have an excellent rushing defense, but Judkins is a different beast — he rushed for over 200 yards last season in this matchup. I don’t see him going off like that, but getting him to go Over 75.5 yards seems like a solid number. That will be our final add here. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texas A&M vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis

This is a very tough pick for me currently at this number on the spread. It is extremely hard to trust Texas A&M to pull off this upset on the road given that they have yet to beat a team with a winning record. However, I am confident they will keep this game low-scoring and close throughout. 

We already mentioned how the Aggies will be able to maintain control of possession and keep their defense off the field. Well, the Rebels rank 108th in penalty yards, which will make it even tougher for them to break down this Aggie defense. I have a slight lean towards the Aggies on this spread. 

While Mississippi is not really known for its defense, it does only allow 21.4 points per game. The Rebels also rank eighth in the country with 7.9 tackles for loss per game and have recorded 30 team sacks. They will be able to hold their own on defense to help keep this game Under the total.

Texas A&M vs Mississippi betting trend to know

Mississippi has hit the Under in eight of their last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs Mississippi.

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