Texas A&M vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs Waste No Time

Saturday afternoon will feature a flood of maroon and white, as the Texas A&M Aggies head to cowbell country for an SEC matchup with the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The 17th-ranked Aggies will hope to return the favor after losing at home to the Bulldogs a year ago, as both teams seek to move to 4-1 on the season in a difficult Western division.

The Aggies will need to slow down the Bulldogs’ dink-and-dunk passing attack, or they’ll have to hope their offense can find a way to put up points.

Find out their chances of doing either in our Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State college football betting picks and predictions for Saturday, October 1. 

Texas A&M vs Mississippi State best odds

Texas A&M vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

Mississippi State has flown out of the gates in every game this season. Through four games, only Arizona has put points on the board before the Bulldogs, and they have scored double-digit points in all four opening quarters this season. They’re also cashing in on their drives, ranking 25th in the nation in points per play.

Mike Leach’s high-paced attack is predicated on his quarterback getting the ball out quickly, and Will Rogers is doing a phenomenal job. He’s completed nearly 75% of his 189 pass attempts this season, with a staggering seven different players already in double digits for receptions. 

Mississippi State leads the nation with 36 pass completions per game, and at home, that number jumps to 40. Last season, Rogers torched the Aggies for 408 yards and three touchdowns while completing 46 of his 59 attempts.

The Aggies have one of the worst sack rates in the country, getting to the quarterback on just 3.23% of passing attempts this season. They’re also not forcing turnovers, averaging fewer than one per contest, and Arkansas was able to have success against them through the air last weekend. The Razorbacks averaged 14.3 yards per completion, and KJ Jefferson completed 63% of his throws — 10% above A&M’s season average allowed.

Texas A&M’s offensive struggles are well documented this season, and in three games against FBS teams, the Aggies have scored in the first quarter just twice, both against Miami.

In their five games away from home last season (two of which were played on neutral fields), they allowed their opponent to open the scoring on four occasions. When you factor in Arkansas jumping out to a 14-0 lead in last weekend’s neutral-site game, they’ve allowed the first scoring play in six of their last eight games away from home. 

Look for the Bulldogs to continue that trend on Saturday afternoon as Rogers and company score first —just like they did last season in College Station — as he picks apart the A&M secondary early and often. 

My best bet: Mississippi State to score first (-135 at DraftKings)

Texas A&M vs Mississippi State spread analysis

The Aggies were fortunate to escape AT&T Stadium with a win last weekend, as Arkansas missed a game-winning field goal off the top of the upright. The Razorbacks led 14-0 and were poised to push their lead potentially to 21-7 before halftime, before an 82-yard scoop and score changed the tide of the game.

Despite facing one of the worst pass defenses in the nation, QB Max Johnson threw for just 151 yards while completing only 11 of 21 pass attempts.

As for the hosts, Mississippi State’s lone defeat came on the road at LSU, a game in which it led 13-0 but would be outscored 24-3 after halftime. Its sole win against a Power-5 team came on the road at Arizona, but it has handled its business this season — with a winning margin of at least 22 points in each of its three victories. 

This is likely why Miss State is favored by four, with the line moving from the initial -2.5 number. To cover that number, however, would require the Bulldogs to beat an SEC West opponent for just the third time in 13 games.

Texas A&M will likely have to rely even more on running back Devon Achane if it hopes to win, as Ainias Smith — one of only two Aggies with more than 100 yards receiving this season — was lost for the season after a leg injury against Arkansas. Mississippi State will need to improve on its 4.2 yards allowed per carry if it hopes to force the Aggies into passing situations. 

Texas A&M vs Mississippi State Over/Under analysis

Going back to Texas A&M’s early offensive struggles away from home, this seems to be a bit of a full-game trend for Jimbo Fisher’s teams as well. The total has gone Under in four of A&M’s last five games, and in nine of its last 12 games on the road. In addition, only two coaches have had a higher rate of road Unders over the past eight seasons, with the Over hitting just 11 times in 40 road games. 

Despite its fast-paced offense, Mississippi State has been trending Under as well. Four of its last six games have gone Under the number. That said, the total has gone Over in four of its last five played at home.

The public appears to be following these Under trends. After opening at 46.5, the total has dropped a point and a half down to 45. Which side of the total the game falls on will likely depend on which team can dictate the pace of play. Not a single one of Texas A&M’s games this season has eclipsed that mark, while all four of Miss State’s contests have covered that total — with three of those seeing at least 57 points scored. 

Texas A&M vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

The favorite has covered the spread in four of the last five games between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State.

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