After a shocking Week 5 loss in which it blew a 22-point lead, Texas State will look to rebound on the road against a struggling Troy program.
With the Bobcats’ explosive offense and inconsistent defense, I’m expecting a lot of points to be scored between these Sun Belt foes in my Texas State vs. Troy predictions and college football picks for Thursday, October 3.
Texas State vs Troy prediction
My best bet
Over 57.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Scoring 22 points in one quarter is just part of the fun of having GJ Kinne as your head coach, but giving up 40 and losing the game is the downside of the experience. But that’s what makes the Texas State Bobcats such a consistent Over bet.
Since Kinne took over as the Bobcats’ head coach last season, Texas State has hit the Over in 11 of 17 games. And this game total is slightly lower than I would have expected.
Coming off a 40-39 loss to Sam Houston State, I expect Kinne’s spread-n-shred offense to be at its best against a Troy Trojans team that’s going through massive growing pains under new head coach Gerad Parker.
Troy has one of the worst defenses in the country. It ranks 88th in SP+ and can’t seem to stop the run or pass. That bodes well for a Texas State offense that’s 44th in SP+ and has one of the best QBs and running backs in the Group of Five.
Led by James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud, the Bobcats are 29th in the country in EPA per dropback and averaging the 22nd-most points per game (37.5). That spells trouble for Troy, which sits 130th in EPA per dropback on defense.
However, for as dynamic as Texas State’s passing attack is, Troy defensive coordinator Dontae Wright won’t even be able to sell out to stop the pass. If he does, Ismail Mahdi will gash the Trojans on the ground as Troy is 115th in EPA per rush on defense.
While I do expect Texas State to do the bulk of the scoring to hit this Over, Troy should be capable of contributing to the cause given the Bobcats’ defensive issues. Texas State is 91st in the country in points allowed per game (27.0) and 109th in SP+ on defense.
Running back Damien Taylor and receiver Devonte Ross will likely cause enough problems against this defense to put three to four scores. And I expect Texas State to win 45-17.
Texas State vs Troy same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 57.5
Jordan McCloud 3+ passing TDs
Ismail Mahdi Over 79.5 rushing yards
It still seems crazy that McCloud, last year’s Sun Belt Player of the Year, was available late enough in the transfer portal process for Kinne to land him. It’s paid off, too, as McCloud leads the conference in TD passes (12) and has thrown at at least three in three of four games.
With the receiver combo of Joey Hobert and Jaden Williams, McCloud should be able to throw at least three scores against this brutal pass defense. But for as big a night as he’s in for, Mahdi could be in for an even more impressive performance.
Troy is allowing 175.2 rushing yards per game and Mahdi is one of the best running backs in the G5. In 17 games with Kinne at Texas State, Mahdi has rushed for Over 79.5 yards 10 times.
With Mahdi’s big play ability — he was 11th in the country in 15-plus-yard runs last season (20) and 16th in yards after contact (800), per PFF — it might only take a handful of carries to hit 80 rushing yards.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas State vs Troy odds
Texas State vs Troy live odds
Texas State vs Troy opening odds
- Texas State vs. Troy spread: Troy +15
- Texas State vs. Troy moneyline: Texas State -700 | Troy +500
- Texas State vs. Troy Over/Under: 57.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texas State vs Troy spread and Over/Under analysis
- Texas State opened as a 15-point favorite and was -16 at one point, but the line has dropped to -13.5 as of Wednesday morning.
- The Bobcats are just 1-3 ATS this season and the Trojans are 2-3.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 54.5 but has since come up to between 57.5 and 58 at most books.
- Texas State is one of just seven teams that’s 4-0 betting the Over this season while Troy is 2-3.
Texas State vs Troy betting trend to know
Texas State has only hit the game total Under in four of its last 12 games (-3.70 Units / -28% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas State vs Troy.
Texas State vs Troy game info
| Location: | Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-3-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
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