One of my favorite bowls of the year gets going in the Country Music Capital of the World when the Texas Tech Red Raiders meet the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Liberty Bowl.
Texas Tech had a relatively strong year compared to its preseason expectations as it logged eight wins and reeled a few in conference play to end the season. It was a disappointing year for Arkansas after it had started with such promise with wins over Auburn and Tennessee. Our Texas Tech vs. Arkansas predictions anticipate a slow offensive start on both ends.
Read on for my college football picks for Friday, December 27 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texas Tech vs Arkansas prediction and best bet
My best bet
First quarter Under 12.5 (-125 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This game has as many moving parts as any bowl game this season. You name it, we have it: staff changes, transfers, injuries, and players even leaving the team because of personal matters. With so much uncertainty and both teams in flux, I'm betting against the production, especially early.
My strongest belief about this game is that either the scoring will fall wildly above the posted total or easily short. That's a typical occurrence in these spots, mainly because it's tough to price it.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders enter without its offensive coordinator (who went to a different job) and defensive coordinator (fired), and all that noise shows up here. The Red Raiders have already made their offensive coordinator hire Mack Leftwich from Texas State, but he won't be coaching in the bowl game.
Playcalling duties will fall to Justin Johnson. Johnson wears a few hats for Texas Tech but is mainly responsible for the WRs. He's only in his second year with Tech, and I'm dubious that he can transition to this role without much of a handicap, so I'm backing that with this play.
What makes me even more suspect is the opponent and the fact that Texas Tech will be starting true freshman quarterback Will Hammond. The Arkansas Razorbacks defense has been so-so this year, but it's been able to create pressure almost always consistently. Backing it to do that consistently early in the game while being well-rested with so many changes on the other side is a wise bet.
Conversely, there are opt-outs galore, but none are more significant than what has happened with the Arkansas offensive line. It will suit up just six healthy scholarship players, which is concerning when going against any power-four opponent. In addition, as mentioned above, it will have just one skill-set position player on the field with over 100 snaps this season. With so much turnover and downright chaos with both teams, I expect we will get some ugly stretches in football; hopefully, that starts from the opening kick.
Texas Tech vs Arkansas same-game parlay (SGP)
1Q Under 12.5
Arkansas moneyline
With so much roster turnover, it's no surprise that our same-game parlay options are sparse. Given what was available, I chose to pair our best bet with the Razorbacks to win outright. I don't have a significantly strong lean here, but if both teams were full goes, I wouldn't either. Arkansas has its staff intact, and that's ultimately the difference.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas Tech vs Arkansas odds
Texas Tech vs Arkansas live odds
Texas Tech vs Arkansas opening odds
- Texas Tech vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas -2.5
- Texas Tech vs. Arkansas moneyline: Texas Tech +110, Arkansas -130
- Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Over/Under: 59.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texas Tech vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis
- These two teams have played twice in the modern era and have shared the spoils. The last meeting came in 2015, when Texas Tech defeated Arkansas by double-digits, covering the 9.5-point spread.
- Texas Tech comes into this game with back-to-back wins over Big 12 opponents; they also covered both times out.
- The Hogs struggled to end the year, losing three of their last four games. In their defense, though, they were underdogs in all three of those losses to SEC opponents.
Texas Tech vs Arkansas betting trend to know
Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in its last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 86% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas Tech vs Arkansas.
Texas Tech vs Arkansas game info
| Location: | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Friday, 12-27-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Texas Tech vs Arkansas latest injuries
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Texas Tech vs Arkansas weather
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