Texas Tech vs Mississippi Prediction: Texas Bowl Odds and Picks

Among the matchups on the 2022 bowl game schedule, the Texas Bowl figures to be a good one. 

Texas Tech will be the Big 12 representative after rattling off seven wins in Joey McGuire’s first year as head coach. For a program that hasn’t won eight games since 2013, a season-ending win could be considered a breakthrough.

Lane Kiffin’s Mississippi Rebels (8-4) are the SEC representative after yet another impressive campaign. After three straight losses to end the regular season, can the Rebels get back in the win column?

Check out our free college football picks for the Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. the Mississippi Rebels on Wednesday, December 28 to find out. 

Texas Tech vs Mississippi best odds

Texas Tech vs Mississippi picks and predictions

Let’s briefly review the resume of both teams, shall we? Mississippi started the season 7-0 and was thought to be among the top teams in the country. Three straight losses to end the season quickly put a damper on those thoughts.

A review of the schedule reveals that the Rebels had a very forgiving path, as they beat just one Power 5 team that qualified for a bowl game all season (Kentucky). They went 0-4 in their other meetings with Power 5 bowl teams (LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi State).

Texas Tech managed a 7-5 record despite posting a -0.3 yards per play differential (5.5 on offense, 5.8 on defense) on the season. New offensive coordinator Zach Kittley led a dynamic offense that averaged 33.6 PPG despite never quite finding the right quarterback to run the system. 

Texas Tech will be without a few impact names in running back SaRodorick Thompson (801 total yards, seven touchdowns), guard Weston Wright, part-time quarterback Donovan Smith, star defensive end Tyree Wilson (14 tackles for loss, seven sacks), cornerbacks Reggie Pearson Jr. and Kobee Minor, and kicker Trey Wolff. 

I’m taking the points with the underdog in this spot. The Red Raiders had four wins over bowl teams, compared to just two for the Rebels. This is a much more even matchup than it seems at first glance, as Mississippi is overrated since it started the season with an 8-1 record and played in the SEC. A closer inspection reveals a wholly unimpressive resume. 

The Rebels have struggled when playing any team with a pulse, and I believe the Red Raiders will offer up enough resistance to be considered a live dog. 

My best bet: Texas Tech +3.5 (-110 at bet365)

Texas Tech vs Mississippi spread analysis

Texas Tech opened +4 to +4.5 but has moved down to +3.5 across the board. I believe that line movement is justified. 

Tech went 7-5 ATS this season and closed the season by covering five of its last seven games. Mississippi, on the other hand, burned a hole in bettors’ pockets with a 4-7-1 ATS mark. Remember those struggles I talked about, whenever the Rebels played decent competition? Mississippi is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning record.

Although Tech was outgained on a yards-per-play basis this season, those numbers can be a tad misleading. The Red Raiders averaged 462.3 yards per game on offense while allowing 414.5 on defense, good for a +47.8 differential. Why the discrepancy between yards per game and yards per play? The Red Raiders operate at a lightning-quick tempo, averaging the most plays per game of any team in the country. They run the quickest tempo by a wide margin, too, as their 83.9 plays per game is five full snaps more than second-place Oklahoma State at 78.6. 

Tech will likely start Tyler Shough at quarterback and while he wasn’t great this season, with six touchdowns and three interceptions in limited playing time due to injury, his 7.9 yards per attempt was actually a full yard higher than the other two signal callers who received playing time (Smith and Behren Morton), The extra rest before the bowl game should allow him to be the healthiest he’s been all season. 

Losing Wilson for this game will hurt the Red Raiders, but I expect the defense to attempt to load the box with a solid front seven and make Mississippi uncomfortable running the ball.

Texas Tech vs Mississippi Over/Under analysis

This game has a very high total of 69.5. Both offenses have been able to score plenty this season, as Texas Tech (33.6 PPG) and Mississippi (34.2 PPG) are both approaching 35 PPG. 

Mississippi’s offense ranks 32nd in EPA/ play and 21st in success rate. It all starts with a dominant rushing attack that averages more yards per game (261.6) than any other non-option attack in the nation. True freshman Quinshon Judkins was one of the breakout stars in the country this season, putting up an absurd 1,592 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns. 

Tech’s defense took a significant step up in 2022 in its first year under coordinator Jim DeRuyter. Recently a laughing stock, the Red Raiders finished 45th in EPA/play and 33rd in success rate — not great, but much better than it has been. Consider this: The 29.5 PPG surrendered by the defense this season was the lowest number for this program since 2009. 

Losing Wilson certainly hurts, but this defense has been solid up front (33rd in line yards, 42nd in stuff rate) and should attempt to load the box to force Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart into throwing more than Kiffin is comfortable. 

When Texas Tech has the ball, it’ll look to pass the ball a lot — the Red Raiders’ 44.2 passing attempts per game is the third most in the nation. Although they usually don’t throw the ball efficiently, they could find success against a Rebels defense that ranks 98th in pass success rate.

Although both teams should find some success offensively, this total is too high for my liking and I lean Under. Mississippi will run the ball a lot and will likely find success doing so because it always does. Tech will throw a ton and should be able to find points, but it’s not exactly like this offense has been clicking on all cylinders this season, ranking 72nd in success rate.

Texas Tech vs Mississippi betting trend to know

Mississippi is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 bowl games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Mississippi.

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