Texas Tech vs NC State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Smith Continues Racking up TDs

The Texas Tech Red Riders take on their second straight AP Top 25 opponent, the North Carolina State Wolfpack. 

Texas Tech won a thrilling 33-30 double overtime contest over then-No. 25 Houston after toppling Murray State 63-10 the previous week. 

NC State, ranked 16th, had an easy time with Charleston Southern last week, winning 55-3. That came after a first-week scare, narrowly avoiding an upset to East Carolina, winning 21-20. 

Who wins the battle of 2-0 teams? Check out our college football picks and predictions for Texas Tech vs. NC State on Saturday, September 17.

Texas Tech vs NC State best odds

Texas Tech vs NC State picks and predictions

Texas Tech’s air attack was dealt a blow in the first game of the season when starting quarterback Tyler Shough left in the second quarter with a shoulder injury. 

There were questions on whether backup Donovan Smith could pick up for Shough, but he quelled all doubts, throwing for 221 yards and four touchdowns in two-plus quarters of action. 

However, that was against an inferior Murray State team. How would he do against No. 25 Houston the following week? No problem. Smith finished 36 of 58 for 351 yards and two touchdowns, leading his team to a thrilling 33-30 double overtime victory. 

Smith is going to most likely have similar stats against NC State on Saturday. The team leads the nation in passing, averaging 411 yards a game. DraftKings is offering Smith at Over/Under 1.5 TDs and I am all over it. 

McGuire’s offense is throw-first, run if you have to. Smith will get his touches, and he has shown he can be trusted with leading the passing attack. The only red flag is the three interceptions he threw against Houston, but if all you need for this bet to pay off is two touchdowns, who cares how many picks he gives up. 

Smith will get challenged by a vastly improved NC State secondary. The defensive backfield for the Wolfpack was dreadful two years ago, but Coach Dave Doeren has focused on shoring it up.

He has new coaches to help the secondary, and last year they allowed six yards per catch. They ranked 33rd nationally in passing yards allowed and were 18th in points allowed per game in 2021. 

They are returning three starting cornerbacks, and all four safeties that saw significant playing time last year. 

But the defense hasn’t been stellar in their first two games. Against East Carolina — a game they were favored to win by 12.5 points — the secondary surrendered 274 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, they played cupcake Charleston Southern and righted the ship somewhat, though they still gave up 114 yards in the 55-3 win. 

Smith should be able to thrive against NC State. He’ll force some throws that will lead to interceptions, but he’ll get at least two touchdown passes and cash this bet. 

My best bet: Donovan Smith Over 1.5 TDs (-130 at DraftKings) 

Texas Tech vs NC State betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

Having NC State favored by 10.5 points seems a bit too large of a spread to me, especially when you consider how the Wolfpack struggled in their first game of the season. 

NC State was a 12.5-point favorite against East Carolina and nearly got upset. The Wolfpack were up 14 but watched the Pirates climb back into it, getting to within one late in the fourth quarter.

East Carolina’s kicker missed a 41-year game-winning field goal in the final seconds. 

So, handing NC State 10.5 points against a much more formidable opponent is not something I am inclined to do. 

Especially when I think Texas Tech could win this game outright. The Red Raiders upset the Cougars in double overtime last week and could defy the odds again Saturday. 

Tech currently has the best passing offense in college football averaging 411 yards per game. Even more remarkable is that has been mostly done with Smith in at backup, who had six touchdown passes in relief of Shough in Week 1. Smith then started the Houston game and went 36-58 for 351 yards and two touchdowns. 

But it’s the three interceptions he threw that are concerning. If Texas Tech is to have any chance against NC State, Smith has to limit his mistakes. 

I don’t think Smith will throw three picks, but I do think he’ll make a costly mistake that will deny the Red Raiders the upset. They will, however, keep this game close and cover. 

Over/Under analysis

Both of these teams have been piling up the points and this game has all the markings of a shootout. The total is set a 55.5 and the Over is the play. NC State didn’t cover the Over in the first game but more than made up for it in their second game, almost covering the Over by themselves. 

Texas Tech has hit the Over in both of their games. With their pass-heavy offense, it’s easy to see why they’ve racked up 96 points in two games. NC State is averaging 38.5 points per game, while Texas Tech is averaging 48. If both teams hold the line, this game easily clears. 

The Over is 6-2 in Texas Tech’s last eight road games against a team with a winning home record and is 4-0 in games in September. For NC State, the Over is 4-0 in their last four games against Big 12 teams, and is 6-1 in their last seven games overall. 

Expect this to be an up-and-down game with lots of points. The Over should easily cover. 

Texas Tech vs NC State game info

• Location: Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Texas Tech vs NC State key injuries

Find our latest College football injury reports.

Texas Tech vs NC State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Texas Tech vs NC State betting trend to know

NC State has won its last 11 home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas Tech vs. NC State.

Pages related to this topic