Two Big 12 teams known for their offenses will meet again in an expected shootout when the Texas Tech Red Raiders travel to Stillwater to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday afternoon.
The Red Raiders are 3-2 through one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far. Oklahoma State is undefeated with its closest game being decided by 11 points. Will Oklahoma State remain undefeated, or will Texas Tech pull off another upset?
Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State on Saturday, October 8.
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Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State best odds
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions
These two teams have played their fair share of shootouts in their Big 12 matchups. This one may be no different. Texas Tech games average 62.6 points per game this season, with Oklahoma State games averaging 71.0.
The Cowboys offense is loaded with experienced players all around. Quarterback Spencer Sanders, in his fourth year as a starter, is playing incredibly, with 1,097 passing yards with 11 touchdowns to only two interceptions to go with 185 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Oklahoma State ranks 22nd in total offense and 27th in passing offense, while Texas Tech ranks 30th in total offense and ninth in passing offense. Texas Tech has a solid pass defense, but a poor rushing defense. Oklahoma State has a terrible passing defense, ranking 128th in the country. These combinations speak to another possible shootout.
The Red Raiders lost their starting QB, Tyler Shough, in the first half of the opener. He will not be able to return this weekend. However, Donovan Smith, who started last season, has stepped up effectively. Smith has 1,475 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions to go along with 93 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Smith has spread the ball around amongst many targets this year. Nine different players have double-digit receptions on the year, and just as many have at least one receiving touchdown. Texas Tech also shares the rushing duties, as Smith has 67 carries, Tahj Brooks has 49, and SaRodorick Thompson 44.
Both offenses have plenty of strengths and both defenses have several weaknesses. This game is built to be a shootout. The last time these two teams met in Stillwater in 2020, there were 94 total points scored. Getting this number Under 70 is a blessing and I love the scoreboard to light up quickly on Saturday afternoon.
My best bet: Over 68.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State spread analysis
The Red Raiders have played the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation this year and this will be their fifth consecutive ranked opponent. They’ve handled themselves well by upsetting both Houston and Texas, but this schedule may be beginning to wear on them.
Last week, Kansas State broke off several big plays and averaged 7.9 yards per play. Texas Tech only averaged 5.8 yards per play in that game. Oklahoma State is tied with Kansas State, averaging 5.9 yards per play on the season, so they may get another bump here like Kansas State did last week.
The Cowboys also have an advantage in special teams. They have yet to miss a kick this season to go along with both a kick return touchdown and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. They average 10.4 yards per punt return and 31.3 yards per kick return this season. Strong starting field position will be a huge advantage for Oklahoma State against a mediocre Tech defense.
The Cowboys also have a massive advantage in their defensive line against the Raiders offensive line. Texas Tech allows 4.5 sacks per game and Oklahoma State record 2.3 sacks per game. They will make enough plays to win another game by double-digits and stay undefeated. I like this spread at 9.5 and will take the Cowboys.
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State Over/Under analysis
Oklahoma State should have great field position throughout this game, which will help a team that averages 47.8 points per game to exceed that number. The Cowboys will likely jump out to an early lead, which will keep the Red Raiders throwing the ball.
That is going to be the best matchup for Texas Tech as well. Even if they give up a ton of sacks, they will be able to pick apart the Cowboys’ secondary with several opportunities. Playing from behind could hurt the offensive line, but it will help the Over bettors by the end of the game.
The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams played at Oklahoma State. The total opened at 64 and has already moved up to 68.5. It likely will continue to move up, so I suggest jumping on this number sooner than later.
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Red Raiders' last four games on field turf. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State.
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State game info
| Location: | Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma |
| Date: | Saturday, October 8, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
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Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State weather
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