The Texas Tech Red Raiders travel to Forth Worth to take on the red-hot TCU Horned Frogs. TCU is undefeated and a game ahead of Kansas State in the Big 12 Conference.
Texas Tech was upset at home last week by the Baylor Bears. It dropped the Red Raiders to 2-3 in the conference and at 4-4 overall, about the only thing they are playing for is bowl eligibility.
TCU is a big favorite at home coming into Saturday’s game. Can Texas Tech pull off the upset or will the Horned Frogs continue to mow over another opponent? Continue reading for free college football picks for Texas Tech vs. TCU on November 5.
Texas Tech vs TCU best odds
Texas Tech vs TCU picks and predictions
The Red Raiders looked awful last week against a Baylor team they were favored to beat, losing 45-17. Freshman quarterback Behren Morton looked frazzled and was forced into bad passes, three of which resulted in interceptions.
Morton was named the starter before the Baylor game and he is scheduled to start against TCU. But with Tyler Shough —who started the first game for the Red Raiders before getting injured — and Donovan Smith available, Morton might not have room for another performance like he had against Baylor.
The Horned Frogs defense has been inconsistent all season but managed to do just enough to stay undefeated. They are 89th in total defense, allowing 402.5 yards per game.
The one area that the defense has improved is pressuring the quarterback. Before last week’s West Virginia game, the Horned Frogs had four sacks in seven games. Saturday, though, TCU picked up three sacks, two from defensive lineman Dylan Horton.
That’s bad news for Texas Tech. The team is last in the Big 12 in sacks allowed, giving up 30 on the year. If the defense can put pressure on Morton they might be able to force him into another shaky start. That could get him benched by halftime.
The Red Raiders have enough to worry about facing one of the best offenses in college football. TCU ranks fourth in total yards, averaging 518.8 yards per game, and is third in scoring offense, averaging 44.3 points.
TCU quarterback Max Duggan has thrown for 22 touchdowns this season and only had two interceptions. He also has four rushing TDs and should keep the Red Raiders off balance because of his mobility.
TCU was a 9.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks, but that line has slimmed back down close to its opening mark, sitting at Horned Frogs -8 at Pinnacle at the time of this writing.
It seems like a lot but the Horned Frogs have been solid all year and with Texas Tech’s issues at QB and on the offensive line, I have TCU covering easily.
My best bet: TCU -8 (-106 at Pinnacle)
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Texas Tech vs TCU spread analysis
The game opened at 7.5 points in TCU’s favor but jumped up two more points during the week before settling back down around TCU -8.5 at several books — and even as low as -8.0 — as of Thursday afternoon. Part of that initial jump can be put on the fact that Texas Tech got walloped last week by Baylor at home after entering the game as a 1.5-point favorite.
Not being able to handle an underdog at home did not sit well with bettors who rushed to back TCU, thus bumping the line up to 9.5 at many sportsbooks, though BetRivers has it at -8.5.
TCU has been good to spread bettors, covering six of eight times this season with one game being a push. The Horned Frogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS victory and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven following a straight-up win.
Texas Tech is not nearly as impressive, going 4-4 ATS this season. Its inconsistency on offense makes it difficult to back them.
With TCU undefeated on the season, and covering the spread both times as a double-digit favorite, I expect it to to cover against Texas Tech on Saturday.
Texas Tech vs TCU Over/Under analysis
The total on this game dropped a point from its opening line of 70.5 points by Thursday afternoon. Even with the amount of points both of these teams score per game, 69.5 might be a stretch.
TCU is third in the country in points per game, averaging 44.2. Texas Tech is 35th averaging 33.9 points per game.
If both teams hit their average, no problem. I have faith TCU can do that, but I have my doubts about Texas Tech. Still, I am going to recommend the Over because I think this is going to be a high-scoring game.
Neither defense is that stellar. TCU is 89th in total defense, allowing 402.5 yards per game. Texas Tech is 58th averaging 365.8 yards per game. The Red Raiders are 89th in scoring defense, allowing an average of 29.25 points per game. The Horned Frogs are 73rd, allowing 27.25 points per game.
The trends are also tilted toward the Over for both teams. For TCU, the Over is 4-0 in its last four home games and 7-1 in its last eight following an ATS victory. The Over is also 5-1 in its last six conference games and 6-1 in its last seven games overall.
For Texas Tech, the Over is 4-1 in its last five games overall and 4-1 in its last five conference games.
Texas Tech vs TCU betting trend to know
Last year, TCU defeated Texas Tech on the road 52-31. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas Tech vs. TCU.
Texas Tech vs TCU game info
| Location: | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, November 5, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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Texas Tech vs TCU weather
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