The College Football Playoff moves to neutral sites, and the Peach Bowl will play host to Texas and Arizona State on New Year’s Day.
The Longhorns dispatched Clemson with an impressive performance in front of their home fans and our early Texas vs. Arizona State predictions have them running wild once more in the Peach Bowl.
Find out why in my early college football picks for Wednesday, January 1.
Texas vs Arizona State predictions
Early spread lean
Texas -13.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Clemson defense had no answer for the Texas Longhorns run game, as the Tigers were gashed repeatedly on the ground. The Longhorns had five explosive high EPA rushing plays, and much of it was the work of Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner ripping through the second level.
It was a smart game plan because Clemson had one of the worst run defenses in the ACC this season. The Tigers coughed up over 4.7 yards per carry, second-most in the conference. But Texas generated just 1.2 yards per carry from its offensive line, something that won’t cut it against a better run defense.
Arizona State has that better run defense, one that will force Texas to rely more on the arm and decision-making of Quinn Ewers. And while he looked great early against Clemson, he still posted just 0.12 EPA/dropback with just one explosive play. And now he heads into this matchup with two of his starting offensive linemen getting injured and leaving the game early against the Tigers.
The other side of the coin will be the titanic matchup between the stout Texas rush defense and the wrecking ball that is Cam Skattebo. The Sun Devil running back ran over, around, and through the Iowa State defense in the Big XII title game, gaining 170 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries.
But it’s a similar story, as Iowa State’s run defense was porous all season and Arizona State capitalized. The Texas front seven is formidable, holding SEC opponents to just 3.11 yards per carry. The difference is that the Longhorn pass defense might be even better. Clemson was able to find success, throwing for 336 yards, but the Arizona State passing attack lacks the weapons possessed by the Tigers.
Arizona State overcame the loss of Jordyn Tyson against Iowa State simply by letting Skattebo do what he does. But the wide receiver’s absence will be felt here, and Texas will eventually pull away and win by two touchdowns against a Sun Devil defense that will wear down over time.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 52.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I love the Under here and have already played it. Arizona State has been involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season, posting 45+ points in each of its last two games and seeing five of its last six games top 50 points in total.
But the Texas defense, by all metrics, will be far and away the best the Sun Devils have faced this year. The Longhorns shut down Clemson’s run game, allowing just 76 yards on 24 carries, and they’ve allowed only one team all season to top the 150-yard mark on the ground. That was the Florida Gators, who ran for 197 yards on 41 carries—while losing by 32 points.
On the other side, Arizona State has a strong defensive unit of its own. The Sun Devils rank in the Top 15 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback. They have done so despite a low number of plays made in the backfield, instead capitalizing on forcing turnovers in the passing game.
The other reason I like the Under is that I’m not sure Arizona State can put up enough points to push up the total. The Sun Devils like to grind out drives, and rank 14th in third-down conversions as they typically have short yardage to go. But Texas will force them into longer to-go situations, and rank fifth nationally in third-down defense.
That’s not going to stop the Sun Devils from trying to run the ball, which of course will help shorten the game. But if Arizona State does move it down the field, putting up touchdowns could be a problem. Texas has given up just 11 rushing scores all season and ranks third in red zone defense, while the Sun Devils rank 114th in offensive red zone efficiency.
The playoff win over Clemson was just the third time all season a Texas game has seen 53+ points scored. Arizona State will keep this tempo lower and attempt to keep the game close, and that’ll help push it Under for bettors.
Texas vs Arizona State live odds
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