These two Big 12 programs will meet when the Texas Longhorns travel to Lawrence to face the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns are 6-4 following their close home loss to undefeated TCU last week. Kansas is also 6-4 but has lost four of its last five games after starting 5-0.
Will Kansas be able to get a big home win to stop its losing skid, or will Texas bounce back from a tough loss? Find out in our free college football betting picks and predictions for Texas vs. Kansas on Saturday, November 19.
Texas vs Kansas best odds
Texas vs Kansas picks and predictions
Texas fans will likely consider this year somewhat of a disappointment sitting at 6-4, but it is important to remember it holds the top-ranked strength of schedule this year. Texas also defeated their hated rival, Oklahoma, 49-0 earlier in the year.
The Longhorns’ stats would suggest that they should be better than 6-4. They rank 24th in the nation in scoring and 25th in the country in points allowed per game. They are one of only seven teams in the country to rank in the Top 25 of both categories.
The biggest weakness for Texas comes in its pass defense. The Longhorns rank 82nd in the nation in passing yards allowed per game, and they only average 2.4 sacks per game. They also only average 0.7 interceptions per game, which ranks in the bottom half of FBS schools this season.
Kansas should be able to take advantage of this weakness. The Jayhawks are still without starting quarterback Jalon Daniels, but backup Jason Bean has been more than serviceable. He has 1,256 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and four interceptions to go along with 38 rushing yards and four touchdowns in his five games as a starter.
On the other end, Kansas has a terrible pass defense, ranking 129th out of 131 teams in passing yards allowed per game. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has been a bit inconsistent this season, but he should be able to thrive in this matchup. His trio of wideouts — which consists of Xavier Worthy, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Jordan Whittington — should be able to make big plays throughout the game.
The combination of passing offense on both sides of the ball should lead to a lot of points. The total is sitting at a decently high number of 64, but this could easily be a shootout, and the Over is my best bet of the day.
My best bet: Over 63.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Texas vs Kansas spread analysis
While Kansas has lost four of its last five games, three of those games came on the road. The one home loss they have this season was to undefeated TCU by seven points (same as Texas).
Meanwhile, Texas is only 1-2 in true road games this season, with its one win being by only seven points at Kansas State. The Longhorns allowed 35.0 points per game in those three games, which is 13.7 points per game higher than their season average. Kansas will also rack up the points on Texas' defense. Kansas has won two of the last five meetings with Texas, and four of the last five games were decided by less than 10 points.
The Jayhawks have also covered all five of the games against the spread. This is likely to be a high-scoring game, which can sometimes lead to a big final point spread even if the game is close throughout.
However, I am still leaning toward taking the Jayhawks ATS. Texas has not been great on the road, and this game just lends itself to a Jayhawks cover and even a possible upset.
Texas vs Kansas Over/Under analysis
Outside of the great mismatches in the passing game, Texas also has one of the best running backs in the country. Bijan Robinson has 1,158 rushing yards and 314 receiving yards with 14 total touchdowns. He also averages 5.7 yards per carry.
Kansas has a better rushing defense than a passing unit, but it is still not good. The Jayhawks rank 94th in rushing defense at 175.0 yards allowed per game. They also allow 4.3 yards per carry, which ranks 78th in the country.
Texas is great at bouncing back from poor offensive performances, as the Over is 5-1 in the last six games after the Longhorns failed to score 20 points in the previous game. Kansas also has a few trends that favor the Over. The Over is 20-7-1 in the last 28 Kansas games following a straight up loss and 7-3 in the last 10 games for Kansas played in the month of November.
This game is likely to be a shootout, and both teams will be lighting up the scoreboard early. While Texas does have the ability to slow down the game with Robinson, Kansas will be striking quickly on offense, which will create bigger play opportunities for Texas against a tired defense.
Texas vs Kansas betting trend to know
The Over is 17-8-1 in the Jayhawks' last 26 conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Kansas.
Texas vs Kansas game info
| Location: | David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS |
| Date: | Saturday, November 19, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
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