The Big 12 Conference heads into Week 10 with a terrific Saturday evening matchup when the No. 24 Texas Longhorns meet the No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats.
Texas saw a three-game winning streak snapped by No. 11 Oklahoma State two weeks ago, while Kansas State most recently shut out Oklahoma State 48-0.
Who will win this Big 12 tilt? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for this Week 10 showdown between the Texas Longhorns and Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday, November 5.
Texas vs Kansas State best odds
Texas vs Kansas State picks and predictions
The Longhorns have had two weeks to prepare for this important matchup — they need to win to stay in the Big 12 Conference hunt, and they’ll deliver Saturday.
Texas has one of the top offenses in the college game, and junior RB Bijan Robinson is one of the best in the country. Robinson has scampered for 920 yards with 11 TDs, and is the straw that stirs the drink for the Longhorns' offense.
Freshman QB Quinn Ewers is coming off a shaky away loss to Oklahoma State. He threw for 319 yards with two TD passes, but the three interceptions made the difference. Ewers has been sacked twice this season and faces a test against a Wildcats defense averaging three sacks per game.
Kansas State pitched a shutout last week over that same Oklahoma State team and allowed 217 yards of offense. The Wildcats defense is one of the better teams in the nation, surrendering an 11th-best 17.25 points per contest, and will provide a real test to Ewers and the Longhorns offense.
The Wildcats offense hummed last week without QB Adrian Martinez in the lineup, but he should be okay this week. The fifth-year senior is a dual threat, throwing for 907 yards and four TD passes with an additional 565 rushing yards and nine TDs. His main target wideouts — Malik Knowles, Phillip Brooks, and Cade Warner — have combined for 1,082 yards and eight TD receptions.
Junior RB Deuce Vaughn is closing in on another 1,000-yard rushing season, scooting for 902 yards with five TDs, an additional 130 receiving yards, and one TD reception. Vaughn gashed Oklahoma State for 158 yards and a TD, but has also had games of 23 yards vs. Iowa State and 83 yards at TCU and can be stopped.
The Longhorns defense is 27th in the country in points allowed, giving up a 31st-best 121 rushing yards and sitting 89th in passing yards. Texas averages two sacks per game with six interceptions this season.
The Longhorns defense will set the tone by containing Vaughn and forcing Martinez to win the game with his arm. The 62% passer isn’t going to get the job done often enough to hurt Texas. Ewers is coming off a tough day against Oklahoma State, but he’s been good all year. His offense has a fight on its hands, but the frosh signal-caller and Robinson will be too much for K-State to deal with.
Texas is a 2.5-point favorite, and the Longhorns covering the college football odds spread is my best bet for this contest.
My best bet: Texas -2.5 (-115 at PointsBet)
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Texas vs Kansas State spread analysis
Texas -140 is certainly in play Saturday, and I will be backing the Longhorns ML and the spread.
Martinez will likely suit up, but junior QB Will Howard is a capable replacement and threw four TD passes in last week's victory over Oklahoma State. He isn’t as mobile as Martinez, but is a much better passer.
The Longhorns are 5-0-0 straight-up over their last five, and seven of the last 10 meetings between these two have gone Texas’ way.
This season, Texas is 5-3-0 ATS, but 0-2-0 ATS as the away side. K-State is 5-2-1 ATS, and 4-1-0 ATS at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Texas has three losses by a combined 11 points. K-State has two losses by a combined 17 points.
Texas vs Kansas State Over/Under analysis
The total is 54.5 points, and I would lean Under in this contest.
We have explosive offenses with talented offensive players on both squads, but these defenses are very good. Texas is No. 14 in DVOA, while K-State is ranked seventh on the DVOA sheet. The Longhorns are 27th in points allowed, while the Wildcats are 11th.
Both offenses take care of the ball, and each school has a positive turnover margin.
Third-down conversions matter, and both sides could be better at this. Texas converts 39% and K-State 32%. The Longhorns defense has a 41% third-down rate, and the Wildcats hold offenses to a robust 33% conversion rate.
The Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these sides.
Texas vs Kansas State betting trend to know
The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 yards in their previous game. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Kansas State.
Texas vs Kansas State game info
| Location: | Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS |
| Date: | Saturday, November 5, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
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Texas vs Kansas State weather
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