Texas vs Michigan Player Props & Best Bets: Declawed Wolverines

Prop bet #1: Davis Warren Under 147.5 Passing Yards

-115 at BetMGM

In one of the more shocking developments of Week 1, it wasn’t Alex Orji taking the majority of the snaps for Michigan in its Week 1 matchup against Fresno State. Instead, it was former walk-on Davis Warren, and the results were, um, mixed.

The Wolverines defeated Fresno State 30-10, but the offense didn’t look 30-points good. Michigan needed a pick-six and another pick giving them a short field to lead to another touchdown. Warren ended up going 15-25 for just 118 yards with one touchdown and one pick.

I’m pretty sure Texas, even without Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat, is going to give Warren a tougher time than Fresno State’s defensive front did last week. Even with those guys gone the Longhorns return eight guys who started last season with the back end being a strength.

Then there is the chance that Michigan could give Orji more opportunities to throw the football in this one. This offense was supposedly built around Orji and running the football and I think the Wolverines' best shot to keep this game is ball control and milking that clock. All things considered, this passing yards prop looks lofty for Davis in this spot. 

Prop bet #2: Semaj Morgan Under 28.5 Receiving Yards

-115 at BetMGM

We are doubling down on the Michigan passing game having a bad day. After so many playmakers left the Wolverines following last year’s national championship you knew this offense was going to take a step back.

And while Michigan wasn’t known for having elite player makers out on the sidelines, the team definitely had a solid room to support JJ McCarthy and the run game. That doesn’t seem to be the case this year.

Semaj Morgan is a speedster but had trouble getting open last week, catching just two of his four targets from Warren for just eight yards. Additionally, it was clear that tight end Colston Loveland was Warren’s primary target and safety value, catching eight balls for 87 yards and a score.

I can see that happening again with Morgan likely getting doubled on deep routes and Warren looking for Loveland with the Longhorns’ defensive ends bearing down on him.

So that could mean another light day on the stat sheet for Morgan.

Prop bet #3: Gunnar Helm Anytime TD

+250 at BetMGM

What is going to keep Michigan in this game is its great defense. But Quinn Ewers is a great quarterback who is going to make some plays at some point in this game. The question is, to who?

With the Wolverines boasting a very strong secondary, where cornerback Will Johnson will take away at least one half of the field, my guess is that Ewers will look for his tight end Gunnar Helm over the middle more than usual in this matchup.

Because despite this being a very good defense, linebacker might be the weakest group in the unit with Michigan having to replace all three starters from a season ago.

Helm was targeted three times in last week’s win over Colorado State, catching two of those for 42 yards. He also still managed 14 receptions for 192 yards and two scores last season despite being buried behind Je’Tavion Sanders on the depth chart. And if you look at Sanders’ numbers from last season, Ewers has no problem looking for his tight ends. I love the odds for Helm to find the end zone on Saturday.