The No. 1 team in the country will put its undefeated record on the line against one of its biggest rivals as the Texas Longhorns visit the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday.
The Longhorns (5-0) are coming off a bye week and have yet to be seriously challenged. The Sooners (4-1) aren’t likely to change that, as I’ll explain in my Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions and early college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
Texas vs Oklahoma predictions
Early spread lean
Texas -14.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s hard to know exactly how good the Texas Longhorns are this year as they’ve yet to be tested in any real way. But whether or not the Longhorns are the best team in the country, they’ve certainly established themselves as an early title favorite.
A 31-12 win over the Michigan Wolverines showed it will take more than a typical Top-25 squad to challenge Texas, at the very least. So far, that 19-point win is the closest game Texas has played in this season.
The Longhorns may also get a bit of a boost at quarterback, as Quinn Ewers looks to be on track to start on Saturday. It’s not as though Texas has missed a beat with Archie Manning behind center, but Ewers is the more experienced and reliable quarterback, and the one the team will clearly trust in big games after two quality seasons at the helm and having completed 73.4% of his passes to start the 2024 season.
The Oklahoma Sooners aren’t exactly off to a bad start, but a 25-15 home loss to the Tennessee Volunteers put a damper on playoff expectations in Norman. Oklahoma is averaging a mediocre 28.6 ppg on offense and may not have the firepower to keep up with Texas.
We’ve also seen the Houston Cougars hold the Sooners to just 16 points, and the Texas defense is on another level from any opponent they’ve dealt with so far this year.
Rivalry games tend to be closely fought, and Oklahoma is getting more than two touchdowns as a home underdog. But the numbers show that these teams aren’t on the same level, with Texas being significantly better on both sides of the ball. The early lean is towards the Longhorns to cover, though I’d be way more excited if the number got below 14 at some point this week.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 49.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
If there’s one single area where Texas has looked like a championship contender most this year, it’s clearly on defense.
The Longhorns are allowing just 7.0 ppg to opponents on the season thus far, making them one of the Top 3 scoring defenses in the country. Amazingly, they have yet to allow a first-quarter point all year, meaning they also get to play from ahead most of the time.
Some will point to the Texas schedule and note that they haven’t had to shut down an explosive offense yet this year. But the Longhorns did hold Michigan to their lowest total of the season at 12 points, and the “worst” defensive game they played — allowing 13 points to the Mississippi State Bulldogs — saw Texas allow just one touchdown and hold the opposition to their lowest output of the year as well.
Outside of putting up 51 points against the Temple Owls, Oklahoma hasn’t been all that great on offense this year. The Sooners switched to true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. at quarterback during the 25-15 loss to the Tennessee Volunteers two weeks ago, and he got the start again in a 27-21 win over the Auburn Tigers last weekend.
But it’s not as though Hawkins has been explosive in those games, throwing just one touchdown pass while completing 21 of 33 passes. He has also run the ball a fair amount, but not that successfully, gaining 101 yards and scoring a touchdown on 28 attempts this season. He now gets to face a Texas defense that will be like nothing he’s competed against in his college career.
Oklahoma won’t just lay down on defense for the Longhorns, either. The Sooners are giving up just 16 points per game, and will provide as much resistance as any opponent has for Texas this year.
We’ve seen Michigan and Mississippi State at least slow down the Longhorns attack, and I expect the Oklahoma defense to also have enough modest success to keep this game from getting completely out of hand. That has me leaning towards the Under in this one.
Texas vs Oklahoma live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
