Texas vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks and Predictions: Robinson Puts His Stamp on the Red River Showdown

The Red River Showdown between Texas and Oklahoma has lost some of its shine over the last few weeks. 

Two weeks ago, this was shaping up like an even bigger matchup than usual. The Longhorns were 2-1, with their loss a near-upset of No. 1 Alabama, while Oklahoma was undefeated heading into conference play. But, the blue blood programs have both stumbled and now enter this rivalry game at 3-2. 

Oklahoma has won this game six of the last seven seasons, but times are changing, as Texas is favored for the first time since 2009.

At 8.5-points, is this spread too much for a game that has traditionally been played very closely over the years? I dig through the numbers and bring you the best bet in college football picks and predictions for the Red River Showdown.

Texas vs Oklahoma best odds

Texas vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

People in Austin have been wanting to yell, “Texas is back!” from the rooftops. After the loss to Alabama, the Longhorns may not have been back, but they looked closer than ever under Steve Sarkisian. But quarterback Quinn Ewers got hurt in that game and the Longhorns’ defense is still a work in progress after giving up nearly 500 yards in a 37-34 overtime loss to Texas Tech.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma was 3-0 heading into conference play but then the wheels fell off the last two weeks. It’s shocking to see a Brent Venables-coached defense give up 500 yards in a game, but it has happened twice in the last two weeks in back-to-back losses to Kansas State and TCU.

If you watched those games, you saw both the Wildcats and Horned Frogs peel off some huge gains on the ground. In those games, they were trampled for a total of 636 rushing yards at a clip of 7.1 yards per carry. 

K-State running back Deuce Vaugh rushed for 116 yards, while TCU’s Kendre Miller went for 136. All that to say, Bijan Robinson must be licking his chops for this matchup.

Robinson is arguably the best back in the county and is off to another terrific start. The Longhorns’ back has rushed for 515 yards at 5.9 yards per carry, finding the end zone eight times on the ground already this season. He also seems to be ramping up to this matchup, topping 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games.

I’m betting Robinson rips a few big runs in this one and makes it 100-plus yards in four straight games, eclipsing his rushing yard total prop in the process.

My best bet: Bijan Robinson Over 105.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Texas vs Oklahoma spread analysis

Yup, times are changing in this storied rivalry. Not only are both teams moving over to the SEC soon but there may also be a shift in the power dynamic between these programs moving forward.

Texas is favored in the Red River Showdown for the first time since 2009. Not only is it favored but it is by more than a touchdown. A big reason for that is the quarterback situation for both teams.

It’s sounding like Sarkisian will have starting quarterback Ewers under center for this one after he got hurt in the Alabama game. Having Ewers back means Venables won’t be able to sell out to stop Robinson and the Texas run game (another reason to like Robinson’s rushing yard prop). 

Before getting hurt, Ewers looked effective against what is a very strong Alabama defense, going 9-for-12 for 134 yards. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s quarterback situation is still messy. It is unknown whether or not quarterback Dillon Gabriel will play in this one, but he is almost certainly still dealing with a concussion. Sportsbooks obviously feel he won’t be able to go, as the line here moved from Texas -7 to -8.5 later in the week.

That would be a big loss. Gabriel has thrown for 1,215 yards with 11 touchdowns and no picks. When Davis Beville entered the game for Gabriel last week against TCU, he managed to go just 7-for-16 for 50 yards.

Even though the Texas defense has been a little vulnerable against the pass, it has been solid against the run, giving up just 3.4 yards per carry to teams not named Alabama. If it is Beville under center, expect the Longhorns to stack the box to stop the run and force him to beat them with his arm.

I expect Texas to bring the Golden Hat home for the first time since 2018 but this game always seems to have a way of going sideways no matter the spread. Eight of the last nine meetings have been one-score games. So, I would lean towards Texas here but it is a very cautious lean.

Texas vs Oklahoma Over/Under analysis

Even if Gabriel is unable to go in this one, the total of 65.5 can still be taken down, because this is the Red River Showdown — a game that has seen an average combined score of 84.2 points over the last five meetings.

Texas is averaging a solid 36.8 points per game this season and that includes the slobber knocker 20-19 game against Bama. Now, the Longhorns are getting their starting quarterback back and have just watched two Big 12 rivals put up 55 and 41 points on Oklahoma over the last two weeks.

On the other side, the Texas defense is improving but it definitely still has its flaws. It is vulnerable to the against the pass and doesn’t create many takeaways. Oklahoma still has enough talent to put up some points in this one. 

Once again, no official play for me here, but I would lean toward the Over.

Texas vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

Texas is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 Red River Showdowns. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Oklahoma.

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