Troy vs South Alabama Odds, Picks and Predictions: Jaguars' Offense Shines for Mobile Faithful

Thursday night, South Alabama and Troy meet for the Battle of the Belt.

The Trojans of Troy have been rolling as of late, as they've won four straight since losing to Appalachian State in early September.

South Alabama has had similar success. The Jaguars have won three straight, scoring over 30 points in two games since losing a heartbreaker at UCLA. These teams look evenly matched and are playing some of their best football. In addition, the stakes are high, and the winner will be in sole first place in the Sun Belt West.

The stage is set for an entertaining affair in Alabama, so who will win? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for South Alabama vs. Troy on Thursday, October 20. 

Troy vs South Alabama best odds

Troy vs South Alabama picks and predictions

This matchup pits two very similar teams against one another; they both have lethal offenses and allow explosive plays.

One of the biggest keys of this game will be what happens in passing down situations for each offense, as this is where South Alabama is most explosive. The team boasts an explosiveness rating on passing downs of 2.07.

That's on par with teams like App State, who have a rating of 2.12 and already defeated Troy in an unlikely fashion via a Chase Brice hail mary as time expired. App State scored 32 points and racked up 456 yards of total offense on 6.6 yards per play, and the Jaguars should be able to replicate that.

As I've previously noted, their offense has been hot lately, scoring 30 points or more in two of their past three games. Both of these teams are playing good football, and they seem to be pretty evenly matched. That rivalry aspect of things even further complicates things.

What we do know is South Alabama will score points, as the Jaguars rank 29th in the nation with 36 ppg. They've done it regularly against teams that struggle to defend on passing downs, and Troy fits the bill as their next victim.

My best bet: South Alabama team total Over 24.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Troy vs South Alabama spread analysis

This game opened up at South Alabama as 3-point favorites, and some books, such as Circa, have moved it half a point to 3.5. That suggests that some sharp money has come in on South Alabama.

So many facets of this point to South Alabama, but laying a field goal in a rivalry game is never fun. South Alabama doesn't have the most dominant defense in the world, posting pretty pedestrian EPA and havoc numbers. Having a preference for the Jaguars is built on Troy shooting itself in the foot rather than South Alabama doing much to stop them.

I expect plenty of lead changes, with the Trojans eventually not having the firepower to keep up. Because of that, I'll be looking for a nice moneyline number on a live in-play South Alabama wager. If I get -130 or better, I'll be taking it. Otherwise, I'm staying away from taking any points.

Troy vs South Alabama Over/Under analysis

Points definitely seem on the agenda in this matchup. One market that has jumped out can be found out BetMGM. You can grab "Both teams to score 20 points" at +115, and I'll be riding with it for sure.

I've already touched on the South Alabama offense and the advantages the Jaguars will possess entering Thursday, so let's mention what we should expect out of Troy. Like the Trojans' opponent, they do a good job creating the big play. After all, they have the 16th-best passing offense in the country, averaging 312 yards per game.

Troy should have its fair share of success against this South Alabama offense through the air. It has allowed the second-most passing plays of 30 or more yards in the Sun Belt Conference and the most passing plays of 40 or more yards.

Both teams have unique offensive advantages, and each seems to be firing on all cylinders. It's too tough to pass up at plus money.

Troy vs South Alabama betting trend to know

The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last two meetings between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Troy vs. South Alabama.

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